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Southend vs Eastleigh Result & Analysis

Date: 05/10/2021
Time: 19:45
Final 1-0
Southend
Southend
Vs
28%
29%
44%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Eastleigh
Eastleigh
England: National League
Referee: R Whitton
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Southend win✓ Hit
27.7%
Avg Implied 34.8% · @ 2.67
Edge
-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.20
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh win✗ Miss
43.8%
Avg Implied 36.2% · @ 2.56
Edge
+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SouthendSouthend

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W11D10W01L00D22D13L23L01L02LA·BAR01/05H·NEW08/05A·KIN21/08H·STO28/08A·WEA30/08H·WRE04/09A·HAL11/09H·ALD14/09A·TOR18/09A·SOL02/10← League TwoNational League →
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.130.621.230.711.06
vs Stronger (16)0.381.190.501.000.171.50
vs Similar (13)0.920.920.501.501.000.82
vs Weaker (1)2.003.002.003.00--
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Eastleigh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EastleighEastleigh

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D02L02L03L33D11D41W02L32W11DA·ALT25/05A·SOL29/05H·WRE28/08A·BRO30/08H·KIN04/09A·BAR11/09H·DOV14/09A·GRI18/09H·WOK25/09H·BOR02/10
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.171.500.860.691.44
vs Stronger (18)0.831.281.120.750.601.70
vs Similar (12)1.421.002.001.000.831.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.6%
@ 2.07+2.4%
Under 2.5
52.4%
@ 1.71-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.9%
Under 3.5
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.9%
No
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
0-1
9.8%
1-2
9.1%
0-0
8.8%
0-2
8.1%
1-0 ✓
7.2%
2-1
6.9%
2-2
5.1%
Southend goals ↓
Eastleigh goals →
01234
08.8%9.8%8.1%3.9%1.4%
17.2%14%9.1%4.4%1.6%
24.7%6.9%5.1%2.5%0.9%
31.8%2.6%1.9%0.9%0.3%
40.5%0.7%0.5%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Southend goals (down), columns = Eastleigh goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stockport
2.14
Wrexham
2.00
Solihull
1.98
Halifax
1.91
Notts County
1.86
Grimsby
1.75
Chesterfield
1.68
Dag and Red
1.66
Bromley
1.52
Boreham Wood
1.52
Torquay
1.50
Yeovil
1.34
Southend
1.32
Altrincham
1.25
Woking
1.20
Wealdstone
1.20
Maidenhead
1.16
Barnet
1.14
Eastleigh
1.05
Aldershot
0.98
King’s Lynn
0.77
Weymouth
0.64
Dover Athletic
0.30
Southend is 0.27 points better than Eastleigh in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.05).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Wrexham
2.07
Stockport
1.98
Solihull
1.89
Notts County
1.84
Dag and Red
1.82
Chesterfield
1.57
Grimsby
1.55
Torquay
1.50
Halifax
1.41
Altrincham
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Woking
1.34
Barnet
1.34
Eastleigh
1.18
Wealdstone
1.16
Boreham Wood
1.11
Maidenhead
1.09
King’s Lynn
1.07
Aldershot
1.05
Southend
1.02
Yeovil
0.98
Weymouth
0.91
Dover Athletic
0.84
Southend is 0.16 goals worse than Eastleigh in terms of goals scored per game (1.02 vs 1.18).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Halifax
0.80
Stockport
0.86
Boreham Wood
0.91
Solihull
1.02
Grimsby
1.05
Wrexham
1.05
Yeovil
1.05
Chesterfield
1.16
Notts County
1.18
Bromley
1.20
Dag and Red
1.20
Torquay
1.23
Woking
1.39
Southend
1.39
Wealdstone
1.48
Maidenhead
1.52
Altrincham
1.57
Aldershot
1.66
Eastleigh
1.68
King’s Lynn
1.80
Weymouth
2.00
Barnet
2.02
Dover Athletic
2.30
Southend is 0.30 goals better than Eastleigh in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.68).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SouthendSouthend

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D10W10W01L00D10W01L11D00D01LA·BAR01/05H·NEW08/05A·KIN21/08H·STO28/08A·WEA30/08H·WRE04/09A·HAL11/09H·ALD14/09A·TOR18/09A·SOL02/10← League TwoNational League →
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.530.380.540.240.53
vs Stronger (16)0.190.690.300.500.001.00
vs Similar (13)0.380.310.500.500.360.27
vs Weaker (1)1.001.001.001.00--
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Eastleigh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EastleighEastleigh

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D02L02L01L20W01L40W01L12L11DA·ALT25/05A·SOL29/05H·WRE28/08A·BRO30/08H·KIN04/09A·BAR11/09H·DOV14/09A·GRI18/09H·WOK25/09H·BOR02/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.470.710.360.250.56
vs Stronger (18)0.220.560.250.380.200.70
vs Similar (12)0.830.331.330.330.330.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Southend over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SouthendSouthend

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L00D00D00D12L12L12L01L01LA·BAR01/05H·NEW08/05A·KIN21/08H·STO28/08A·WEA30/08H·WRE04/09A·HAL11/09H·ALD14/09A·TOR18/09A·SOL02/10← League TwoNational League →
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.600.230.690.470.53
vs Stronger (16)0.190.500.200.500.170.50
vs Similar (13)0.540.620.001.000.640.55
vs Weaker (1)1.002.001.002.00--
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Eastleigh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EastleighEastleigh

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D00D02L13L10W01L01L20W00DA·ALT25/05A·SOL29/05H·WRE28/08A·BRO30/08H·KIN04/09A·BAR11/09H·DOV14/09A·GRI18/09H·WOK25/09H·BOR02/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.700.790.500.440.88
vs Stronger (18)0.610.720.880.380.401.00
vs Similar (12)0.580.670.670.670.500.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Southend over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards84.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.574.1%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.574.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards71.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
STO (25)
€10m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
Southend and Eastleigh have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
STO (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
GRI (8)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Southend and Eastleigh have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
STO (6)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Southend and Eastleigh have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
Southend and Eastleigh have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
SOU wins
0
Draws
0
EAS wins

Head-to-head

Southend vs Eastleigh · H/A from SOU
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

SouthendSouthend

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/10/21ASolihull Vs SOU2-0
18/09/21ATorquay Vs SOU1-0
14/09/21HSOU Vs Aldershot2-3
11/09/21AHalifax Vs SOU3-1
04/09/21HSOU Vs Wrexham2-2
30/08/21AWealdstone Vs SOU0-0
28/08/21HSOU Vs Stockport0-1
21/08/21AKing’s Lynn Vs SOU0-1
08/05/21HSOU Vs Newport County1-1
01/05/21ABarrow Vs SOU1-2

EastleighEastleigh

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/10/21HEAS Vs Boreham Wood1-1
25/09/21HEAS Vs Woking3-2
18/09/21AGrimsby Vs EAS2-0
14/09/21HEAS Vs Dover Athletic4-1
11/09/21ABarnet Vs EAS1-1
04/09/21HEAS Vs King’s Lynn3-3
30/08/21ABromley Vs EAS3-0
28/08/21HEAS Vs Wrexham0-2
29/05/21ASolihull Vs EAS2-0
25/05/21AAltrincham Vs EAS1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Southend
Southend
England: National League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL0.98
HomeWDLDL0.92
AwayWDLLL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%21%23%
AVG goals1.882.001.77
Over 1.5 %56%58%54%
Over 2.5 %30%33%27%
Over 3.5 %16%21%12%
Scored0.660.790.54
Conceded1.221.211.23
BTTS32%38%27%
Clean Sheet34%29%38%
Corners9.149.438.86
Cards3.462.963.92
Eastleigh
Eastleigh
England: National League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWD1.44
HomeLDWWD1.81
AwayDLLDL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%50%25%
AVG goals2.302.192.42
Over 1.5 %68%62%75%
Over 2.5 %42%35%50%
Over 3.5 %20%15%25%
Scored1.161.380.92
Conceded1.140.811.50
BTTS46%42%50%
Clean Sheet32%42%21%
Corners---
Cards3.763.923.58

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StockportStockport4494
68%
2.1
8738+49
2.8
75%
61%
25%
-
0%
3.6
50%
-
0%
10
3342.00.9
-
2WrexhamWrexham4488
59%
2.0
9146+45
3.1
80%
52%
34%
-
0%
3.2
39%
-
0%
77
1523392.11.0
-
3SolihullSolihull4487
57%
2.0
8345+38
2.9
77%
55%
34%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
4HalifaxHalifax4484
57%
1.9
6235+27
2.2
66%
34%
20%
-
0%
3.3
45%
-
0%
0
0001.40.8
-
5Notts CountyNotts County4482
55%
1.9
8152+29
3.0
82%
52%
34%
-
0%
4.3
61%
-
0%
6
2221.81.2
-
6GrimsbyGrimsby4477
52%
1.8
6846+22
2.6
64%
48%
30%
-
0%
3.0
45%
-
0%
4
1021.51.0
-
7ChesterfieldChesterfield4474
45%
1.7
6951+18
2.7
75%
45%
39%
-
0%
3.7
45%
-
0%
6
3121.61.2
-
8
DA
Dag and Red		4473
50%
1.7
8053+27
3.0
80%
61%
32%
-
0%
2.9
41%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
9Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4467
41%
1.5
4940+9
2.0
61%
30%
16%
-
0%
3.1
32%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
10BromleyBromley4467
41%
1.5
6153+8
2.6
75%
43%
27%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
4
1121.41.2
-
11
T
Torquay		4466
41%
1.5
6654+12
2.7
80%
55%
30%
-
0%
3.4
50%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
12YeovilYeovil4459
34%
1.3
4346-3
2.0
70%
39%
7%
-
0%
4.3
66%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
13SouthendSouthend4458
36%
1.3
4561-16
2.4
68%
41%
23%
-
0%
3.7
48%
-
0%
1
0001.01.4
-
14AltrinchamAltrincham4455
34%
1.2
6269-7
3.0
80%
52%
39%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
15WokingWoking4453
36%
1.2
5961-2
2.7
73%
48%
32%
-
0%
4.3
57%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
16WealdstoneWealdstone4453
32%
1.2
5165-14
2.6
70%
52%
30%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
17
M
Maidenhead		4451
30%
1.2
4867-19
2.6
73%
45%
32%
-
0%
3.2
32%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
18BarnetBarnet4450
30%
1.1
5989-30
3.4
84%
64%
41%
-
0%
3.5
48%
-
0%
4
0131.32.0
-
19EastleighEastleigh4446
27%
1.0
5274-22
2.9
73%
50%
30%
-
0%
3.9
59%
-
0%
1
0001.21.7
-
20AldershotAldershot4443
25%
1.0
4673-27
2.7
77%
52%
32%
-
0%
4.2
61%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
21
KL
King’s Lynn		4434
18%
0.8
4779-32
2.9
70%
52%
32%
-
0%
3.4
45%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
22
W
Weymouth		4428
14%
0.6
4088-48
2.9
80%
50%
32%
-
0%
2.7
41%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
23
DA
Dover Athletic		4413
5%
0.3
37101-64
3.1
73%
59%
39%
-
0%
3.2
48%
-
0%
0
0000.82.3
-
England: National League 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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