PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Southend vs Eastleigh Result & Analysis

Date: 25/08/2023
Time: 19:45
Final 2-0
Southend
Southend
Vs
51%
27%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Eastleigh
Eastleigh
England: National League
Referee: A Humphries

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Southend win✓ Hit
50.7%
Avg Implied 51.3% · @ 1.81
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.58
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh win✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied 22.8% · @ 4.07
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SouthendSouthend

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W11D20W02L31W21W40W20W12L23LH·MAI07/04A·WOK10/04H·DAG15/04A·OLD18/04A·SCU22/04H·WEA29/04H·OLD05/08A·DAG12/08A·DOR15/08H·HAR19/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.131.671.070.871.20
vs Stronger (13)0.771.150.751.000.781.22
vs Similar (15)1.801.002.101.001.201.00
vs Weaker (2)0.502.001.002.000.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Eastleigh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EastleighEastleigh

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L33D25L23L00D11D11D00D33D02LA·TOR07/04H·ALD10/04H·GAT12/04A·CHE15/04H·SOL22/04A·HAL29/04A·SOL05/08H·WEA12/08H·BAR15/08A·ROC19/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.271.331.131.071.40
vs Stronger (14)1.071.141.250.880.831.50
vs Similar (16)1.311.381.431.431.221.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.3%
Under 1.5
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.6%
@ 1.93+2.2%
Under 2.5
49.4%
@ 1.81-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.6%
Under 3.5
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.5%
No
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.6%
2-0 ✓
9.3%
0-0
7.9%
1-2
6.0%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
5.3%
Southend goals ↓
Eastleigh goals →
01234
07.9%5.8%3.6%1.3%0.3%
110.0%13%6.0%2.1%0.5%
29.3%9.6%5.0%1.7%0.5%
35.1%5.3%2.8%1.0%0.2%
42.1%2.2%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Southend goals (down), columns = Eastleigh goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Chesterfield
2.13
Barnet
1.87
Bromley
1.76
Altrincham
1.67
Solihull
1.65
Gateshead
1.63
Southend
1.63
Halifax
1.54
Aldershot
1.50
Oldham
1.37
Rochdale
1.35
Hartlepool
1.30
Eastleigh
1.28
Maidenhead
1.26
Dag and Red
1.22
Wealdstone
1.22
Woking
1.20
Fylde
1.20
Ebbsfleet
1.17
York
1.15
Boreham Wood
1.13
Kidderminster
1.00
Dorking
0.98
Oxford City
0.72
Southend is 0.35 points better than Eastleigh in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 1.28).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Chesterfield
2.30
Barnet
1.98
Gateshead
1.91
Altrincham
1.83
Aldershot
1.61
Fylde
1.61
Bromley
1.59
Eastleigh
1.59
Solihull
1.54
Hartlepool
1.52
Southend
1.52
Dag and Red
1.50
Rochdale
1.50
Oldham
1.37
Maidenhead
1.30
Wealdstone
1.30
Boreham Wood
1.28
Ebbsfleet
1.28
Halifax
1.26
York
1.20
Dorking
1.17
Oxford City
1.17
Woking
1.07
Kidderminster
0.87
Southend is 0.07 goals worse than Eastleigh in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 1.59).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Southend
0.98
Bromley
1.07
Halifax
1.09
Woking
1.20
Altrincham
1.28
Kidderminster
1.28
Oldham
1.30
Barnet
1.30
Solihull
1.35
Dag and Red
1.37
Gateshead
1.39
Rochdale
1.39
Chesterfield
1.41
Maidenhead
1.46
York
1.50
Wealdstone
1.57
Boreham Wood
1.59
Ebbsfleet
1.61
Hartlepool
1.78
Fylde
1.78
Aldershot
1.80
Dorking
1.85
Eastleigh
1.89
Oxford City
2.04
Southend is 0.91 goals better than Eastleigh in terms of goals conceded per game (0.98 vs 1.89).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Gateshead
61%
Chesterfield
60%
Barnet
57%
Southend
56%
Wealdstone
55%
Rochdale
55%
Dorking
53%
Ebbsfleet
52%
Altrincham
52%
Hartlepool
50%
Aldershot
50%
Woking
49%
Solihull
48%
Oxford City
48%
Halifax
48%
Fylde
47%
Oldham
46%
Kidderminster
46%
York
45%
Eastleigh
44%
Bromley
43%
Boreham Wood
43%
Maidenhead
42%
Southend is 12.0 percentage points better than Eastleigh in terms of average possession (56% vs 44%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SouthendSouthend

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W00D00D01L10W01L10W10W11D11DH·MAI07/04A·WOK10/04H·DAG15/04A·OLD18/04A·SCU22/04H·WEA29/04H·OLD05/08A·DAG12/08A·DOR15/08H·HAR19/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.470.530.400.400.53
vs Stronger (13)0.310.540.000.250.440.67
vs Similar (15)0.600.400.700.500.400.20
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Eastleigh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EastleighEastleigh

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D31W12L20W00D10W00D00D13L02LA·TOR07/04H·ALD10/04H·GAT12/04A·CHE15/04H·SOL22/04A·HAL29/04A·SOL05/08H·WEA12/08H·BAR15/08A·ROC19/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.470.870.670.670.27
vs Stronger (14)0.860.430.880.750.830.00
vs Similar (16)0.690.500.860.570.560.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Southend over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SouthendSouthend

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D20W01L21W20W30W10W01L12LH·MAI07/04A·WOK10/04H·DAG15/04A·OLD18/04A·SCU22/04H·WEA29/04H·OLD05/08A·DAG12/08A·DOR15/08H·HAR19/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.671.130.670.470.67
vs Stronger (13)0.460.620.750.750.330.56
vs Similar (15)1.200.601.400.500.800.80
vs Weaker (2)0.001.500.002.000.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Eastleigh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EastleighEastleigh

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L02L13L03L00D01L11D00D20W00DA·TOR07/04H·ALD10/04H·GAT12/04A·CHE15/04H·SOL22/04A·HAL29/04A·SOL05/08H·WEA12/08H·BAR15/08A·ROC19/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.800.470.470.401.13
vs Stronger (14)0.210.710.380.120.001.50
vs Similar (16)0.620.880.570.860.670.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Southend over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards80.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.576.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards74.1%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.571.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
Southend and Eastleigh have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Southend and Eastleigh have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Southend and Eastleigh have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (9)
€3m
CHE (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
Southend and Eastleigh have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
SOU wins
1
Draws
2
EAS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Southend vs Eastleigh · H/A from SOU
DateH/AGameScore
28/01/23HSOU Vs Eastleigh1-3
27/08/22AEastleigh Vs SOU2-1
22/02/22AEastleigh Vs SOU1-1
05/10/21HSOU Vs Eastleigh1-0

SouthendSouthend

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/08/23HSOU Vs Hartlepool2-3
15/08/23ADorking Vs SOU2-1
12/08/23ADag and Red Vs SOU0-2
05/08/23HSOU Vs Oldham4-0
29/04/23HSOU Vs Wealdstone2-1
22/04/23AScunthorpe Vs SOU1-3
18/04/23AOldham Vs SOU2-0
15/04/23HSOU Vs Dag and Red2-0
10/04/23AWoking Vs SOU1-1
07/04/23HSOU Vs Maidstone2-0

EastleighEastleigh

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/08/23ARochdale Vs EAS2-0
15/08/23HEAS Vs Barnet3-3
12/08/23HEAS Vs Wealdstone0-0
05/08/23ASolihull Vs EAS1-1
29/04/23AHalifax Vs EAS1-1
22/04/23HEAS Vs Solihull0-0
15/04/23AChesterfield Vs EAS3-2
12/04/23HEAS Vs Gateshead2-5
10/04/23HEAS Vs Aldershot3-3
07/04/23ATorquay Vs EAS2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Southend
Southend
England: National League
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL1.50
HomeWWWWL1.72
AwayDLWWL1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%52%36%
AVG goals2.322.402.24
Over 1.5 %72%72%72%
Over 2.5 %44%48%40%
Over 3.5 %18%20%16%
Scored1.321.521.12
Conceded1.000.881.12
BTTS40%40%40%
Clean Sheet40%48%32%
Corners---
Cards3.943.923.96
Eastleigh
Eastleigh
England: National League
Recent: 0 Wins / 6 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDDL1.40
HomeDLDDD1.96
AwayLLDDL0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%56%20%
AVG goals2.462.442.48
Over 1.5 %64%56%72%
Over 2.5 %40%32%48%
Over 3.5 %26%24%28%
Scored1.201.440.96
Conceded1.261.001.52
BTTS48%36%60%
Clean Sheet36%52%20%
Corners---
Cards3.984.403.56

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ChesterfieldChesterfield4698
67%
2.1
10665+41
3.7
91%
74%
52%
-
0%
4.0
48%
-
0%
6
3122.31.4
60%
2BarnetBarnet4686
57%
1.9
9160+31
3.3
87%
57%
39%
-
0%
4.2
65%
-
0%
4
0132.01.3
57%
3BromleyBromley4681
48%
1.8
7349+24
2.7
76%
48%
30%
-
0%
3.6
41%
-
0%
4
1121.61.1
43%
4AltrinchamAltrincham4677
48%
1.7
8459+25
3.1
80%
65%
37%
-
0%
3.7
50%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
52%
5SolihullSolihull4676
46%
1.7
7162+9
2.9
85%
57%
24%
-
0%
4.0
54%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
48%
6SouthendSouthend4675
46%
1.6
7045+25
2.5
85%
48%
13%
-
0%
3.3
39%
-
0%
1
0001.51.0
56%
7GatesheadGateshead4675
48%
1.6
8864+24
3.3
87%
63%
41%
-
0%
4.0
57%
-
0%
0
0001.91.4
61%
8HalifaxHalifax4671
41%
1.5
5850+8
2.3
74%
43%
20%
-
0%
4.2
52%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
48%
9AldershotAldershot4669
43%
1.5
7483-9
3.4
85%
61%
39%
-
0%
4.5
63%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
50%
10OldhamOldham4663
33%
1.4
6360+3
2.7
78%
50%
33%
-
0%
3.9
52%
-
0%
3
1111.41.3
46%
11RochdaleRochdale4662
35%
1.3
6964+5
2.9
83%
59%
33%
-
0%
4.0
52%
-
0%
2
1111.51.4
55%
12HartlepoolHartlepool4660
37%
1.3
7082-12
3.3
85%
63%
41%
-
0%
3.6
48%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
50%
13EastleighEastleigh4659
35%
1.3
7387-14
3.5
80%
65%
41%
-
0%
4.1
52%
-
0%
1
0001.61.9
44%
14
M
Maidenhead
4658
33%
1.3
6067-7
2.8
70%
52%
39%
-
0%
4.1
61%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
42%
15
DA
Dag and Red
4656
30%
1.2
6963+6
2.9
74%
50%
33%
-
0%
3.7
54%
-
0%
0
0001.51.4
-
16WealdstoneWealdstone4656
33%
1.2
6072-12
2.9
74%
48%
33%
-
0%
4.0
50%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
55%
17WokingWoking4655
33%
1.2
4955-6
2.3
65%
37%
17%
-
0%
4.2
54%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
49%
18
F
Fylde
4655
33%
1.2
7482-8
3.4
96%
74%
43%
-
0%
3.8
57%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
47%
19
E
Ebbsfleet
4654
30%
1.2
5974-15
2.9
76%
50%
33%
-
0%
4.5
61%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
52%
20YorkYork4653
26%
1.2
5569-14
2.7
83%
46%
30%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
1
0011.21.5
45%
21Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4652
26%
1.1
5973-14
2.9
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
3.5
39%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
43%
22
K
Kidderminster
4646
24%
1.0
4059-19
2.2
63%
41%
15%
-
0%
3.7
48%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
46%
23
D
Dorking
4645
26%
1.0
5485-31
3.0
78%
59%
33%
-
0%
3.9
63%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
53%
24
OC
Oxford City
4633
17%
0.7
5494-40
3.2
83%
65%
43%
-
0%
3.4
41%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
48%
England: National League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

← all matches