Spaeri’s recent string of losses has left the home side vulnerable, while Dila’s recent draw shows they are still finding their rhythm. The model therefore names an away win as the clear favourite, assigning a 69 % probability to Dila’s triumph. The home side’s average of 1.58 goals scored and conceded at home against similar opposition contrasts with Dila’s 1.5 goals scored and conceded on the road, underscoring the home team’s defensive frailties. The expected total of 3.6 goals suggests a lively match, with the most likely total of three goals carrying a 21 % chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-2 for Dila, with a 9.4 % probability. Home win probability stands at 13 %, draw at 18 %, and away win at 69 %. Suggested picks include Under 11.5 corners at 99.5 %, Under 10.5 corners at 98.6 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.8 %, Under 7.5 at 97.0 %, Under 9.5 corners at 96.8 %, Away +2 handicap at 95.3 %, Under 8.5 corners at 93.2 %, and Under 6.5 at 92.9 %. Each selection carries its own probability, with no overlap of match-result percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spaeri win
13.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dila win
68.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spaeri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.37
1.54
1.54
0.94
1.24
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.80
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (23)
1.35
1.30
1.64
1.55
1.08
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dila
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.27
2.06
1.18
1.62
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.53
1.60
1.75
1.38
1.29
1.86
vs Weaker (13)
2.23
0.69
2.25
0.75
2.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Spaeri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.9%
Under 1.5
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69.2%
Under 2.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
47.9%
Under 3.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.9%
No
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.4%
0-2
8.9%
1-1
8.3%
1-3
7.9%
0-3
7.4%
0-1
6.3%
2-2
5.0%
1-4
4.9%
Spaeri goals ↓
Dila goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.6%
6.3%
8.9%
7.4%
4.6%
1
2.2%
8.3%
9.4%
7.9%
4.9%
2
1.6%
4.0%
5.0%
4.2%
2.6%
3
0.6%
1.4%
1.8%
1.5%
0.9%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spaeri goals (down), columns = Dila goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rustavi
2.38
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.14
Dinamo Batumi
2.00
Samgurali
1.75
Gagra
1.62
Dila
1.43
Saburtalo
1.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
0.62
Meshakhte
0.50
Spaeri
0.38
Spaeri is 1.05 points worse than Dila in terms of average points per game (0.38 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.57
Dila
2.29
Dinamo Batumi
2.12
Samgurali
1.88
Rustavi
1.62
Saburtalo
1.33
Gagra
1.25
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.25
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
0.88
Spaeri is 1.29 goals worse than Dila in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rustavi
0.75
Gagra
1.12
Dinamo Batumi
1.12
Saburtalo
1.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.71
Dila
1.71
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.88
Spaeri
2.00
Meshakhte
2.00
Samgurali
2.12
Spaeri is 0.29 goals worse than Dila in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saburtalo
55%
Meshakhte
50%
Gagra
46%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spaeri
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dila
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Spaeri
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (38)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dila) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dila
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Spaeri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
9.0
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
Meshakhte
5.0
Gagra
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Meshakhte
5.0
Saburtalo
4.9
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
Gagra
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Saburtalo
30.0
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
3.2%
Under 9.5
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
73.9%
Under 3.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Spaeri or Draw
32.0%
Avg Implied -
13%
19%
68%
covers Spaeri + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spaeri or Dila
81.4%
Avg Implied -
13%
19%
68%
covers Spaeri + Dila
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dila
86.6%
Avg Implied -
13%
19%
68%
covers Draw + Dila
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Spaeri over/under 0.5
Over
65.5%
Under
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 1.5
Over
28.8%
Under
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 2.5
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 0.5
Over
91.9%
Under
8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5
Over
71.4%
Under
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5
Over
45.8%
Under
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 3.5
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Spaeri, so a minus line means Spaeri give that many goals of a start and Dila receive them. At -1, Spaeri must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Spaeri win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Spaeri)
Spaeri -2
1.4%
Draw -2
3.6%
Dila +2
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Spaeri)
Spaeri -1
4.9%
Draw -1
8.5%
Dila +1
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Spaeri)
Spaeri +1
32.0%
Draw +1
20.9%
Dila -1
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Spaeri)
Spaeri +2
52.9%
Draw +2
19.8%
Dila -2
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spaeri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.85
0.38
0.41
0.59
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.39
0.91
0.36
0.42
0.42
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dila
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.65
0.47
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.73
0.38
0.50
0.43
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.31
0.88
0.38
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Spaeri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spaeri over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spaeri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.69
1.15
0.53
0.65
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
2.00
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.91
0.73
1.18
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dila
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.70
1.41
0.71
1.00
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
1.13
0.87
1.38
0.88
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (13)
1.31
0.38
1.38
0.38
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Spaeri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spaeri over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 11.5 corners
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 8.5 corners
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
Spaeri's squad is €3m less valuable than Dila's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
Spaeri and Dila have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
Spaeri and Dila have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
Spaeri's defence is €2m less valuable than Dila's (€1m vs €2m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →