Dinamo Tbilisi is the favourite to win this match, with the model predicting an away win. The recent form of both teams is a key storyline, as Dinamo Tbilisi is on a 2-game winning run, while Spaeri comes off a draw against Torpedo Kutaisi.
The probabilities for the match result are: Spaeri to win 17%, draw 24%, and Dinamo Tbilisi to win 59%. The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.4%.
Spaeri's home form against stronger opponents is concerning, with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 goals conceded. Dinamo Tbilisi, on the other hand, has been scoring an average of 2.2 goals away against weaker opponents. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a probability of 79.4%, and an edge of 4%. The suggested picks are: Over 1.5 (79.4%), and the away win (59%).
Spaeri's recent struggles continued as they fell to a 1-2 defeat at home, extending their winless streak. Dinamo Tbilisi's away form, however, remained strong, as they secured an away win, the same result predicted by the Pythia model. The model's selection, an away win, proved correct, with a pre-match probability of 59%. The model also correctly identified the over 1.5 goals as the most likely outcome, which hit with a probability of 79.4%. The model's call on the most likely score, 0-2, narrowly missed, while the most likely total goals of 2 was also the actual total.
Spaeri| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 1.27 | 1.23 | 1.46 | 0.94 | 1.12 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.40 | 2.20 | 0.00 | 5.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.22 | 1.09 | 1.36 | 1.18 | 1.08 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Dinamo Tbilisi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.77 | 1.07 | 2.00 | 1.07 | 1.53 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.47 | 0.93 | 1.57 | 0.71 | 1.38 | 1.12 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 2.07 | 1.20 | 2.38 | 1.38 | 1.71 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Dinamo Tbilisi goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.6% | 9.7% | 10% | 6.6% | 3.2% |
| 1 | 4.3% | 11% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% |
| 2 | 2.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Spaeri
Dinamo Tbilisi
Spaeri| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (5) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (41) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (4) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Dinamo Tbilisi| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (25) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Spaeri| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.20 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.57 | 0.35 | 0.64 | 0.27 | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+42pp vs league) | |||||
Dinamo Tbilisi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.50 | 1.07 | 0.53 | 0.73 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.67 | 0.27 | 0.57 | 0.43 | 0.75 | 0.12 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 1.13 | 0.73 | 1.50 | 0.62 | 0.71 | 0.86 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Spaeri| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.47 | 0.65 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.65 | 0.74 | 0.73 | 0.91 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Dinamo Tbilisi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.57 | 0.93 | 0.53 | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.80 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.29 | 0.62 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 0.93 | 0.47 | 0.88 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.14 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 87.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 79.4% | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.19 | +3.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 73.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Spaeri| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 16/06/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 12/06/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 29/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 14/12/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 10/12/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 06/12/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 29/11/25 | H | 2-3 | |
| 25/11/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 21/11/25 | H | 2-1 |
Dinamo Tbilisi| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 18/06/26 | H | 5-3 | |
| 14/06/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 30/05/26 | A | 1-6 | |
| 06/12/25 | A | 2-2 | |
| 30/11/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 26/11/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/11/25 | H | 2-4 | |
| 07/11/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 02/11/25 | H | 3-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Rustavi | 8 | 19 | 75% | 2.4 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 2.4 | 75% | 62% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 | Dinamo Batumi | 8 | 16 | 62% | 2.0 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | - |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 7 | 15 | 71% | 2.1 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 4.3 | 100% | 100% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 4 | Samgurali | 8 | 14 | 50% | 1.8 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 4.0 | 88% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | - |
| 5 | Gagra | 8 | 13 | 38% | 1.6 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 2.4 | 88% | 50% | 12% | 5.0 | 0% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 46% |
| 6 | Dila | 7 | 10 | 43% | 1.4 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 71% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2.3 | 1.7 | - |
| 7 | Saburtalo | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 5.0 | 0% | 7.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 55% |
| 8 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 8 | 5 | 12% | 0.6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 3.1 | 75% | 62% | 38% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.9 | - |
| 9 | Meshakhte | 8 | 4 | 12% | 0.5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 2.9 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 5.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 50% |
| 10 | Spaeri | 8 | 3 | 0% | 0.4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3.0 | 88% | 62% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |