Spaeri’s recent 0-3 loss to Dinamo Batumi and Gagra’s 0-3 defeat to Rustavi set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model forecasting an average of 3.3 goals. The most probable total is three, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 10.3% chance. The model favours an away win, giving Gagra a 54% chance, while Spaeri and a draw both sit at 23% each. Spaeri, playing at home against a similar-strength side, averages 1.64 goals scored and 1.55 conceded, whereas Gagra, on the road, averages 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 11.5 corners (99.5%), Under 10.5 corners (98.6%), Under 7.5 (97.9%), Under 9.5 corners (96.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.9%), Under 6.5 (94.7%), Under 8.5 corners (93.2%) and Away +2 handicap (90.3%).
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spaeri win
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gagra win
51.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spaeri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.37
1.54
1.54
0.94
1.24
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.80
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (23)
1.35
1.30
1.64
1.55
1.08
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gagra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.57
1.53
1.13
1.33
2.00
vs Stronger (16)
1.50
1.69
1.43
1.29
1.56
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.36
1.43
1.62
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Spaeri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.0%
Under 1.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.9%
Under 2.5
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.8%
Under 3.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.3%
No
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
7.1%
2-1
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
0-1
6.3%
1-3
6.2%
0-0
4.7%
Spaeri goals ↓
Gagra goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
6.3%
7.1%
4.6%
2.3%
1
4.0%
11%
9.5%
6.2%
3.0%
2
3.3%
6.5%
6.4%
4.1%
2.0%
3
1.5%
2.9%
2.8%
1.8%
0.9%
4
0.5%
1.0%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spaeri goals (down), columns = Gagra goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rustavi
2.38
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.14
Dinamo Batumi
2.00
Samgurali
1.75
Gagra
1.62
Dila
1.43
Saburtalo
1.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
0.62
Meshakhte
0.50
Spaeri
0.38
Spaeri is 1.25 points worse than Gagra in terms of average points per game (0.38 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.57
Dila
2.29
Dinamo Batumi
2.12
Samgurali
1.88
Rustavi
1.62
Saburtalo
1.33
Gagra
1.25
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.25
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
0.88
Spaeri is 0.25 goals worse than Gagra in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rustavi
0.75
Gagra
1.12
Dinamo Batumi
1.12
Saburtalo
1.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.71
Dila
1.71
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.88
Spaeri
2.00
Meshakhte
2.00
Samgurali
2.12
Spaeri is 0.88 goals worse than Gagra in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saburtalo
55%
Meshakhte
50%
Gagra
46%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spaeri
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Gagra
For 1.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 5.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Spaeri
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (11)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (35)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Gagra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gagra
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
5.0
-
5.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
-
-
-
vs Stronger (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
5.0
-
5.0
0.1
0.0
0.3
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
-
100%
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Spaeri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
9.0
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
Meshakhte
5.0
Gagra
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Meshakhte
5.0
Saburtalo
4.9
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
Gagra
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Saburtalo
30.0
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Spaeri or Draw
49.0%
Avg Implied -
25%
24%
51%
covers Spaeri + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spaeri or Gagra
76.1%
Avg Implied -
25%
24%
51%
covers Spaeri + Gagra
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Gagra
74.8%
Avg Implied -
25%
24%
51%
covers Draw + Gagra
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Spaeri over/under 0.5
Over
73.7%
Under
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 1.5
Over
38.6%
Under
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 2.5
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 0.5
Over
85.9%
Under
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5
Over
58.2%
Under
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5
Over
31.2%
Under
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 3.5
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Spaeri, so a minus line means Spaeri give that many goals of a start and Gagra receive them. At -1, Spaeri must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Spaeri win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Spaeri)
Spaeri -2
3.8%
Draw -2
7.3%
Gagra +2
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Spaeri)
Spaeri -1
11.1%
Draw -1
14.0%
Gagra +1
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Spaeri)
Spaeri +1
49.0%
Draw +1
21.0%
Gagra -1
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Spaeri)
Spaeri +2
70.0%
Draw +2
15.7%
Gagra -2
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spaeri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.85
0.38
0.41
0.59
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.39
0.91
0.36
0.42
0.42
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gagra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.67
0.40
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
0.75
0.86
0.43
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.57
0.50
0.38
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Spaeri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spaeri over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spaeri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.69
1.15
0.53
0.65
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
2.00
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.91
0.73
1.18
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gagra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.90
0.87
0.73
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
0.94
0.57
0.86
0.89
1.00
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.86
1.12
0.62
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Spaeri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spaeri over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
Spaeri and Gagra have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
Spaeri and Gagra have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
Spaeri and Gagra have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
Spaeri and Gagra have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rustavi
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Tbilisi
Samgurali
Dila
Saburtalo
Torpedo Kutaisi
Meshakhte