Spaeri’s recent five matches have been a mixed bag of losses and draws, while Rustavi arrive on a three-game winning streak, their last outing a 3-0 triumph over Gagra. The model therefore favours an away win, assigning a 54 % chance to Rustavi, 23 % to a draw and 22 % to Spaeri. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most likely total of three goals carrying a 22 % probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 10.7 % chance.
Spaeri, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.64 goals scored and 1.55 conceded. Rustavi, on the road, averages 1.83 goals scored and only 0.92 conceded against comparable opposition. The model’s selections include an Under 11.5 corners at 99.5 %, Under 10.5 corners at 98.6 %, Under 7.5 at 98.2 %, Under 9.5 corners at 96.8 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.3 %, Under 6.5 at 95.3 %, Under 8.5 corners at 93.2 % and an Away +2 handicap at 90.6 %. These probabilities reflect the model’s view of the match’s likely flow.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spaeri win
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rustavi win
54.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spaeri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.37
1.54
1.54
0.94
1.24
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.80
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (23)
1.35
1.30
1.64
1.55
1.08
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Rustavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rustavi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
0.67
2.00
0.47
1.87
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.89
0.71
1.93
0.50
1.86
0.93
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Spaeri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.4%
Under 1.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.2%
Under 2.5
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.9%
Under 3.5
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.9%
No
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.2%
0-1
7.4%
1-3
6.4%
2-1
5.9%
2-2
5.8%
0-3
5.4%
Spaeri goals ↓
Rustavi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
7.4%
8.2%
5.4%
2.7%
1
4.0%
11%
9.8%
6.4%
3.2%
2
3.0%
5.9%
5.8%
3.8%
1.9%
3
1.2%
2.3%
2.3%
1.5%
0.8%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spaeri goals (down), columns = Rustavi goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rustavi
2.38
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.14
Dinamo Batumi
2.00
Samgurali
1.75
Gagra
1.62
Dila
1.43
Saburtalo
1.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
0.62
Meshakhte
0.50
Spaeri
0.38
Spaeri is 2.00 points worse than Rustavi in terms of average points per game (0.38 vs 2.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.57
Dila
2.29
Dinamo Batumi
2.12
Samgurali
1.88
Rustavi
1.62
Saburtalo
1.33
Gagra
1.25
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.25
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
0.88
Spaeri is 0.62 goals worse than Rustavi in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rustavi
0.75
Gagra
1.12
Dinamo Batumi
1.12
Saburtalo
1.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.71
Dila
1.71
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.88
Spaeri
2.00
Meshakhte
2.00
Samgurali
2.12
Spaeri is 1.25 goals worse than Rustavi in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.75).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saburtalo
55%
Meshakhte
50%
Gagra
46%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spaeri
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Rustavi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Spaeri
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Rustavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rustavi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Spaeri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
9.0
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
Meshakhte
5.0
Gagra
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Meshakhte
5.0
Saburtalo
4.9
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
Gagra
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Saburtalo
30.0
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
3.2%
Under 9.5
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
73.8%
Under 3.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Spaeri or Draw
45.4%
Avg Implied -
22%
24%
55%
covers Spaeri + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spaeri or Rustavi
76.3%
Avg Implied -
22%
24%
55%
covers Spaeri + Rustavi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Rustavi
78.3%
Avg Implied -
22%
24%
55%
covers Draw + Rustavi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Spaeri over/under 0.5
Over
69.6%
Under
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 1.5
Over
33.4%
Under
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 2.5
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 0.5
Over
86.1%
Under
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 1.5
Over
58.7%
Under
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 2.5
Over
31.6%
Under
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 3.5
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Spaeri, so a minus line means Spaeri give that many goals of a start and Rustavi receive them. At -1, Spaeri must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Spaeri win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Spaeri)
Spaeri -2
2.8%
Draw -2
6.1%
Rustavi +2
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Spaeri)
Spaeri -1
8.9%
Draw -1
12.8%
Rustavi +1
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Spaeri)
Spaeri +1
45.4%
Draw +1
21.8%
Rustavi -1
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Spaeri)
Spaeri +2
67.3%
Draw +2
16.9%
Rustavi -2
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spaeri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.85
0.38
0.41
0.59
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.39
0.91
0.36
0.42
0.42
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Rustavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rustavi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.17
0.93
0.13
0.80
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.86
0.18
0.86
0.14
0.86
0.21
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
83% (+55pp vs league)
This opponent (Spaeri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.2%
Under 0.5
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.2%
Under 1.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.6%
Under 2.5
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spaeri over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.2%
Under
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
59.4%
Under
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
28.2%
Under
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spaeri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.69
1.15
0.53
0.65
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
2.00
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.91
0.73
1.18
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Rustavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rustavi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.50
1.07
0.33
1.07
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.04
0.54
1.07
0.36
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Spaeri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.8%
Under 0.5
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.2%
Under 1.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.2%
Under 2.5
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spaeri over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.2%
Under
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
68.6%
Under
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
33.8%
Under
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 11.5 corners
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 8.5 corners
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
Spaeri and Rustavi have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
Spaeri and Rustavi have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
Spaeri and Rustavi have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
Spaeri and Rustavi have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →