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Spaeri vs Saburtalo II Result & Analysis

Date: 05/10/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 1-1
Spaeri
Spaeri
Vs
54%
25%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Saburtalo II
Saburtalo II
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Spaeri win✗ Miss
54.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo II win✗ Miss
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

SpaeriSpaeri

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W11D33D10W10W11D11D02L10W30WH·LOK04/08A·SAB11/08H·DIN16/08A·GON25/08H·MES30/08A·MER11/09H·SAM15/09A·RUS19/09H·SIO27/09A·LOK01/10
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.002.131.071.270.93
vs Stronger (2)0.003.500.005.000.002.00
vs Similar (25)1.920.802.420.751.460.85
vs Weaker (3)1.001.001.501.000.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Saburtalo IISaburtalo II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D04L40W12L11D42W21W11D00DA·MER04/08H·SPA11/08A·SAM18/08H·DIN25/08A·RUS30/08H·GON11/09A·SIO15/09H·MES19/09A·LOK27/09H·MER01/10
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.251.181.290.711.211.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.281.081.230.691.331.50
vs Weaker (3)1.002.002.001.000.502.50
Clean sheet %25% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Spaeri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.0%
Under 1.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.5%
Under 2.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.2%
Under 3.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.5%
No
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.0%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
9.4%
1-0
9.3%
0-0
6.8%
3-1
5.9%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
5.6%
Spaeri goals ↓
Saburtalo II goals →
01234
06.8%4.9%3.2%1.1%0.3%
19.3%12%5.7%2.0%0.5%
29.4%9.8%5.2%1.8%0.5%
35.6%5.9%3.1%1.1%0.3%
42.6%2.7%1.4%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spaeri goals (down), columns = Saburtalo II goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Odishi 1919
2.00
Rustavi
1.97
Spaeri
1.78
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Meshakhte
1.44
Merani Martvili
1.39
Sioni
1.33
Samtredia
1.28
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.26
Saburtalo II
1.13
Gonio
1.03
Dinamo Tbilisi II
0.78
Spaeri is 0.65 points better than Saburtalo II in terms of average points per game (1.78 vs 1.13).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Odishi 1919
2.00
Rustavi
1.72
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.50
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Spaeri
1.50
Sioni
1.39
Samtredia
1.22
Gonio
1.17
Merani Martvili
1.14
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.14
Saburtalo II
1.13
Meshakhte
0.94
Spaeri is 0.37 goals better than Saburtalo II in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.13).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Meshakhte
0.69
Rustavi
0.83
Spaeri
0.94
Samtredia
1.17
Sioni
1.22
Saburtalo II
1.26
Odishi 1919
1.50
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.53
Merani Martvili
1.53
Gonio
1.58
Dinamo Tbilisi II
2.11
Spaeri is 0.32 goals better than Saburtalo II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 1.26).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SpaeriSpaeri

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D23L10W00D00D01L00D00D10WH·LOK04/08A·SAB11/08H·DIN16/08A·GON25/08H·MES30/08A·MER11/09H·SAM15/09A·RUS19/09H·SIO27/09A·LOK01/10
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.470.930.600.530.33
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.003.000.001.00
vs Similar (25)0.880.281.170.330.620.23
vs Weaker (3)0.001.000.001.000.001.00
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Saburtalo IISaburtalo II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D03L30W11D01L21W10W10W00DA·MER04/08H·SPA11/08A·SAM18/08H·DIN25/08A·RUS30/08H·GON11/09A·SIO15/09H·MES19/09A·LOK27/09H·MER01/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.570.500.430.640.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.600.440.460.380.750.50
vs Weaker (3)0.331.671.001.000.002.00
Clean sheet %54% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Spaeri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spaeri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SpaeriSpaeri

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W11D10W00D10W11D10W02L10W20WH·LOK04/08A·SAB11/08H·DIN16/08A·GON25/08H·MES30/08A·MER11/09H·SAM15/09A·RUS19/09H·SIO27/09A·LOK01/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.531.200.470.730.60
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.002.000.001.00
vs Similar (25)1.040.521.250.420.850.62
vs Weaker (3)1.000.001.500.000.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Saburtalo IISaburtalo II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D01L10W01L10W21W11D01L00DA·MER04/08H·SPA11/08A·SAM18/08H·DIN25/08A·RUS30/08H·GON11/09A·SIO15/09H·MES19/09A·LOK27/09H·MER01/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.680.610.790.290.570.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.680.640.770.310.581.00
vs Weaker (3)0.670.331.000.000.500.50
Clean sheet %46% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Spaeri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spaeri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUS (22)
€2m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MES (5)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUS (10)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
SPA wins
1
Draws
0
SI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Spaeri vs Saburtalo II · H/A from SPA
DateH/AGameScore
11/08/25ASaburtalo II Vs SPA1-1
28/04/25HSPA Vs Saburtalo II3-0

SpaeriSpaeri

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/10/25ALokomotivi Tbilisi Vs SPA0-3
27/09/25HSPA Vs Sioni1-0
19/09/25ARustavi Vs SPA2-0
15/09/25HSPA Vs Samtredia1-1
11/09/25AMerani Martvili Vs SPA1-1
30/08/25HSPA Vs Meshakhte1-0
25/08/25AGonio Vs SPA0-1
16/08/25HSPA Vs Dinamo Tbilisi II3-3
11/08/25ASaburtalo II Vs SPA1-1
04/08/25HSPA Vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi3-1

Saburtalo IISaburtalo II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/10/25HSI Vs Merani Martvili0-0
27/09/25ALokomotivi Tbilisi Vs SI1-1
19/09/25HSI Vs Meshakhte2-1
15/09/25ASioni Vs SI2-4
11/09/25HSI Vs Gonio1-1
30/08/25ARustavi Vs SI2-1
25/08/25HSI Vs Dinamo Tbilisi II4-0
18/08/25ASamtredia Vs SI4-0
11/08/25HSI Vs Spaeri1-1
04/08/25AMerani Martvili Vs SI1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Spaeri
Spaeri
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWW1.74
HomeWDWDW1.84
AwayDWDLW1.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%52%48%
AVG goals2.742.962.52
Over 1.5 %76%76%76%
Over 2.5 %44%52%36%
Over 3.5 %28%36%20%
Scored1.581.721.44
Conceded1.161.241.08
BTTS42%44%40%
Clean Sheet42%44%40%
Corners---
Cards---
Saburtalo II
Saburtalo II
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWDD1.32
HomeDWDWD1.57
AwayLLLWD1.07
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%36%29%
AVG goals2.432.002.86
Over 1.5 %71%64%79%
Over 2.5 %43%36%50%
Over 3.5 %25%21%29%
Scored1.251.291.21
Conceded1.180.711.64
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet25%36%14%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RustaviRustavi3671
58%
2.0
6230+32
2.6
81%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.70.8
-
2SpaeriSpaeri3664
47%
1.8
5434+20
2.4
72%
44%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.50.9
-
3MeshakhteMeshakhte3652
36%
1.4
3425+9
1.6
47%
28%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.90.7
-
4Merani MartviliMerani Martvili3650
36%
1.4
4155-14
2.7
75%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
5SioniSioni3648
33%
1.3
5044+6
2.6
67%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
6Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi3848
32%
1.3
5758-1
3.0
79%
50%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
7SamtrediaSamtredia3646
31%
1.3
4442+2
2.4
72%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.2
-
8Saburtalo IISaburtalo II3843
26%
1.1
4348-5
2.4
74%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
-
9GonioGonio3637
25%
1.0
4257-15
2.8
83%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
10Dinamo Tbilisi IIDinamo Tbilisi II3628
17%
0.8
4176-35
3.2
89%
72%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.1
-
11Odishi 1919Odishi 191924
50%
2.0
43+1
3.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.5
-
12Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti23
50%
1.5
33+0
3.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

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