This opponent (Excelsior) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.53
1.06
1.25
1.50
1.86
vs Stronger (12)
1.25
1.25
1.00
1.17
1.50
1.33
vs Similar (18)
1.28
1.72
1.10
1.30
1.50
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sparta Rotterdam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.1%
Under 1.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.5%
Under 2.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.1%
Under 3.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.2%
No
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
6.8%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
6.1%
1-0
6.0%
Sparta Rotterdam goals ↓
Excelsior goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
6.8%
6.3%
3.3%
1.3%
1
6.0%
12%
8.8%
4.7%
1.8%
2
5.0%
7.9%
6.2%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.4%
3.7%
2.9%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.8%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sparta Rotterdam goals (down), columns = Excelsior goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.44
Ajax
2.32
AZ Alkmaar
2.09
Feyenoord
1.94
Utrecht
1.59
Vitesse
1.44
Den Haag
1.38
Heerenveen
1.35
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Heracles
1.24
Excelsior
1.18
Groningen
1.12
Willem II
1.09
NAC Breda
1.00
VVV Venlo
1.00
Roda
0.88
Sparta Rotterdam
0.79
Twente
0.71
Sparta Rotterdam is 0.38 points worse than Excelsior in terms of average points per game (0.79 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
2.62
PSV Eindhoven
2.56
Feyenoord
2.24
AZ Alkmaar
2.12
Vitesse
1.85
Utrecht
1.71
Heracles
1.47
Groningen
1.47
Willem II
1.47
Heerenveen
1.41
Den Haag
1.32
Roda
1.24
PEC Zwolle
1.24
Excelsior
1.21
NAC Breda
1.21
Twente
1.09
VVV Venlo
1.03
Sparta Rotterdam
1.00
Sparta Rotterdam is 0.21 goals worse than Excelsior in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
0.97
AZ Alkmaar
1.12
Feyenoord
1.15
PSV Eindhoven
1.15
Vitesse
1.38
Groningen
1.47
Utrecht
1.56
Den Haag
1.56
Heerenveen
1.56
PEC Zwolle
1.59
VVV Venlo
1.59
Excelsior
1.65
NAC Breda
1.68
Willem II
1.85
Twente
1.85
Heracles
1.88
Roda
2.03
Sparta Rotterdam
2.21
Sparta Rotterdam is 0.56 goals worse than Excelsior in terms of goals conceded per game (2.21 vs 1.65).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam
For 6.5 · Against 7.0 · Total 13.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 13.6 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Excelsior
For 4.1 · Against 6.9 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 11.6 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sparta Rotterdam
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
13.0
13.4
12.6
1.1
1.2
1.0
25.4
22.4
28.3
vs Stronger (14)
13.2
14.3
11.5
0.9
1.1
0.6
26.6
23.3
31.5
vs Similar (32)
13.6
13.0
14.4
1.2
1.4
1.1
24.5
22.0
27.4
vs Weaker (4)
9.0
-
9.0
1.2
0.0
1.7
27.5
-
27.5
% over line
83%
100%
67%
14%
20%
8%
72%
56%
89%
% under line
17%
0%
33%
86%
80%
92%
28%
44%
11%
This opponent (Excelsior) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
9.9
12.8
1.3
1.2
1.4
25.2
26.3
23.8
vs Stronger (20)
13.9
9.7
17.0
1.0
0.9
1.1
24.4
28.7
21.2
vs Similar (30)
9.5
10.0
8.5
1.5
1.4
1.6
25.6
25.3
26.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
40%
50%
16%
12%
21%
72%
80%
62%
% under line
56%
60%
50%
84%
88%
79%
28%
20%
38%
This opponent (Sparta Rotterdam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sparta Rotterdam
13.0
PSV Eindhoven
11.6
Ajax
11.6
Feyenoord
11.5
Heracles
11.4
AZ Alkmaar
11.3
Excelsior
11.2
NAC Breda
11.2
Groningen
10.7
Den Haag
10.7
Utrecht
10.6
VVV Venlo
10.4
Twente
10.4
Vitesse
10.4
Roda
10.1
Heerenveen
9.8
Willem II
9.7
PEC Zwolle
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
PSV Eindhoven
4.4
Ajax
4.3
PEC Zwolle
4.3
Twente
4.2
Den Haag
4.1
Groningen
3.8
Excelsior
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
NAC Breda
3.5
AZ Alkmaar
3.4
Vitesse
3.4
Sparta Rotterdam
3.2
VVV Venlo
3.2
Heerenveen
3.1
Heracles
3.0
Willem II
2.9
Feyenoord
2.9
Roda
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heerenveen
26.9
Twente
26.7
Ajax
26.1
Vitesse
25.9
Heracles
25.8
Utrecht
25.7
AZ Alkmaar
25.5
Sparta Rotterdam
25.4
PSV Eindhoven
25.3
Excelsior
25.2
NAC Breda
24.7
Feyenoord
24.7
Den Haag
24.6
PEC Zwolle
24.2
Willem II
23.2
Roda
23.2
Groningen
22.7
VVV Venlo
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
77.2%
Under 9.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.3%
Under 3.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
64.8%
Under 21.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sparta Rotterdam
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.87
0.56
1.06
0.21
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.29
0.20
1.60
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.75
0.80
0.80
0.30
0.70
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.50
0.44
0.79
0.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.83
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.61
0.60
0.20
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sparta Rotterdam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sparta Rotterdam
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.10
0.38
0.56
0.64
1.71
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.43
0.20
1.20
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.70
1.00
0.50
0.30
0.90
1.70
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.56
0.81
0.71
0.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.83
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.56
1.11
0.50
1.10
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Sparta Rotterdam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 8.5 corners
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sparta Rotterdam · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Milan Zonneveld50%
Marvin Young50%
Nökkvi Þórisson33%
Nick Verschuren25%
Robin van Cruijsen25%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Filip Bednarek0%
Mitchell Van Bergen0%
Jens Toornstra0%
Bas Kuipers0%
Casper Terho0%
Shunsuke Mito0%
Joel Ideho0%
Julian Baas0%
Alwande Roaldsoy0%
Ayoni Santos0%
Lushendry Edward Martes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jens Toornstra33%
Mitchell Van Bergen25%
Bas Kuipers25%
Casper Terho25%
Lushendry Edward Martes25%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Nökkvi Þórisson0%
Filip Bednarek0%
Shunsuke Mito0%
Joel Ideho0%
Julian Baas0%
Milan Zonneveld0%
Alwande Roaldsoy0%
Marvin Young0%
Nick Verschuren0%
Ayoni Santos0%
Robin van Cruijsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bas Kuipers50%
Shunsuke Mito50%
Nökkvi Þórisson33%
Joel Ideho33%
Mitchell Van Bergen25%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Filip Bednarek0%
Jens Toornstra0%
Casper Terho0%
Julian Baas0%
Milan Zonneveld0%
Alwande Roaldsoy0%
Marvin Young0%
Nick Verschuren0%
Ayoni Santos0%
Robin van Cruijsen0%
Lushendry Edward Martes0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nökkvi Þórisson67%
Ayoni Santos33%
Robin van Cruijsen25%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Filip Bednarek0%
Mitchell Van Bergen0%
Jens Toornstra0%
Bas Kuipers0%
Casper Terho0%
Shunsuke Mito0%
Joel Ideho0%
Julian Baas0%
Milan Zonneveld0%
Alwande Roaldsoy0%
Marvin Young0%
Nick Verschuren0%
Lushendry Edward Martes0%
Excelsior · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Casper Widell33%
David Garden33%
Irakli Yegoian33%
Nesto Groen33%
Aymen Sliti33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Simon Janssen0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Jan Plug0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Simon Janssen33%
Jan Plug33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
David Garden0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Irakli Yegoian0%
Nesto Groen0%
Aymen Sliti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Irakli Yegoian67%
Simon Janssen33%
Ilano Silva Timas33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
David Garden0%
Nesto Groen0%
Aymen Sliti0%
Jan Plug0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
David Garden33%
Aymen Sliti33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Simon Janssen0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Irakli Yegoian0%
Nesto Groen0%
Jan Plug0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
PZ (23)
€21m
EXC (24)
€16m
WI (24)
€13m
NB (23)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
VV (19)
€4m
Sparta Rotterdam's squad is €12m more valuable than Excelsior's (€28m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
WI (8)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
VV (6)
€1m
Sparta Rotterdam's attack is €7m more valuable than Excelsior's (€14m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
NB (3)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
VV (3)
€0m
Sparta Rotterdam's midfield is €1m less valuable than Excelsior's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (11)
€3m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
Sparta Rotterdam's defence is €6m more valuable than Excelsior's (€12m vs €6m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
PSV Eindhoven
Ajax
AZ Alkmaar
Feyenoord
Utrecht
Vitesse
Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle
Heracles
Groningen
Willem II
NAC Breda
VVV Venlo
Roda
Twente