PythiaFootballBETA
Sparta Rotterdam is expected to win this match, with a 43% probability of a home victory, 27% chance of a draw, and 30% likelihood of Excelsior taking the win. The most likely result is a home win, according to the model's pick. The expected total number of goals in this match is 2.9.
One possible scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.6%. The home side has a strong record at home, scoring an average of 1.33 goals and conceding 0.89 per game against opponents of similar strength. Meanwhile, Excelsior has a decent away record, scoring 1.62 goals and conceding 1.5 per game against similar opponents.
The model suggests Over 1.5 goals as its selection with a high probability of 79.8%. The home win percentage is 43%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 30%. Other model selections include the home team's win, the away team's win, and the draw, each with their respective probabilities.
In a stunning upset, Excelsior secured a 2-3 away win over Sparta Rotterdam, ending their run of two straight defeats. The model's selection, a home win, was wrong, as it had a pre-match probability of 43%. The model's call was incorrect. The model's selection, a home win, was not the favourite. The model's selection, a home win, did not come through. Excelsior's two-game winning run continued. Over 1.5 was the model's selection, with a probability of 79.8%, and it hit. The final score was 2-3, and the actual result was an away win.
Sparta Rotterdam| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 1.60 | 1.47 | 1.20 | 1.27 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.29 | 2.29 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.58 | 1.00 | 1.18 | 1.82 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
Excelsior| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.47 | 1.20 | 1.33 | 1.27 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 1.40 | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.15 | 1.35 | 0.90 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-7pp vs league) | |||||
| Excelsior goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 7.6% | 13% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 7.0% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Sparta RotterdamExcelsiorSparta Rotterdam| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.6 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 19.8 | 19.8 | 19.7 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 10.4 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 18.3 | 17.5 | 18.9 |
| vs Similar (36) | 10.7 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 20.4 | 20.6 | 20.1 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 60% | 60% | 60% | 50% | 48% | 52% | 36% | 28% | 44% |
| % under line | 40% | 40% | 40% | 50% | 52% | 48% | 64% | 72% | 56% |
Excelsior| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.7 | 9.3 | 10.1 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 22.1 | 21.2 | 23.1 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 9.4 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 19.3 | 18.4 | 20.1 |
| vs Similar (35) | 9.7 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 23.2 | 22.1 | 24.4 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 12.0 | 12.0 | - | 1.0 | 1.0 | - | 23.0 | 23.0 | - |
| % over line | 44% | 42% | 46% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 58% |
| % under line | 56% | 58% | 54% | 68% | 69% | 67% | 50% | 58% | 42% |
Sparta Rotterdam| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.57 | 0.48 | 0.75 | 0.33 | 0.36 | 0.64 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Excelsior| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.60 | 0.45 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Sparta Rotterdam| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.10 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.87 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.86 | 1.71 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.83 | 0.91 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.82 | 1.18 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
Excelsior| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.90 | 0.60 | 0.93 | 0.60 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.70 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.55 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 84.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 84.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 79.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 8.5 corners | 75.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 72.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 4.5 cards | 70.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 17/02/24 | H | 4-2 | |
| 01/10/23 | A | 2-1 | |
| 05/03/23 | A | 1-4 | |
| 14/01/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 21/01/18 | H | 2-3 | |
| 21/10/17 | A | 1-1 | |
| 07/04/17 | H | 2-3 |
Sparta Rotterdam| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/02/26 | A | 3-1 |
Excelsior| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 20/02/26 | A | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 34 | 84 | 79% | 2.5 | 101 | 45 | +56 | 4.3 | 97% | 85% | 59% | 11.6 | 79% | 3.4 | 29% | 18.6 | 21% | 323 | 139 | 77 | 108 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 61% |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 34 | 65 | 56% | 1.9 | 70 | 44 | +26 | 3.4 | 85% | 59% | 38% | 10.6 | 56% | 3.6 | 45% | 21.6 | 50% | 216 | 78 | 51 | 87 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 53% |
| 3 |  Ajax | 36 | 60 | 42% | 1.7 | 65 | 42 | +23 | 3.0 | 94% | 56% | 39% | 10.0 | 53% | 3.7 | 44% | 22.4 | 58% | 260 | 119 | 53 | 87 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 4 |  NEC Nijmegen | 34 | 59 | 47% | 1.7 | 77 | 53 | +24 | 3.8 | 97% | 74% | 56% | 10.1 | 53% | 4.1 | 47% | 24.1 | 65% | 62 | 27 | 26 | 9 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 57% |
| 5 |  Twente | 34 | 58 | 44% | 1.7 | 59 | 40 | +19 | 2.9 | 85% | 50% | 32% | 9.5 | 38% | 3.6 | 38% | 20.6 | 41% | 84 | 26 | 13 | 45 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 6 |  Utrecht | 36 | 57 | 44% | 1.6 | 59 | 45 | +14 | 2.9 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 9.9 | 58% | 3.4 | 46% | 21.9 | 47% | 88 | 30 | 24 | 34 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 47% |
| 7 |  AZ Alkmaar | 34 | 52 | 41% | 1.5 | 58 | 51 | +7 | 3.2 | 82% | 65% | 44% | 10.3 | 56% | 3.6 | 39% | 21.6 | 50% | 205 | 100 | 43 | 62 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 53% |
| 8 |  Heerenveen | 36 | 51 | 39% | 1.4 | 59 | 58 | +1 | 3.2 | 94% | 69% | 39% | 10.6 | 61% | 3.1 | 37% | 20.4 | 42% | 49 | 22 | 6 | 20 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 9 |  Groningen | 35 | 48 | 40% | 1.4 | 49 | 47 | +2 | 2.7 | 89% | 54% | 23% | 11.0 | 60% | 3.5 | 45% | 20.8 | 51% | 32 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 34 | 43 | 35% | 1.3 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 3.0 | 76% | 53% | 38% | 11.2 | 68% | 4.1 | 68% | 20.7 | 44% | 32 | 13 | 2 | 16 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 47% |
| 11 |  Fortuna Sittard | 34 | 39 | 32% | 1.1 | 49 | 63 | -14 | 3.3 | 88% | 68% | 38% | 11.1 | 59% | 3.6 | 42% | 23.9 | 65% | 22 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 45% |
| 12 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 34 | 38 | 24% | 1.1 | 54 | 53 | +1 | 3.1 | 85% | 62% | 47% | 11.6 | 71% | 3.5 | 39% | 19.1 | 24% | 36 | 17 | 6 | 14 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 13 | Excelsior | 34 | 38 | 29% | 1.1 | 43 | 56 | -13 | 2.9 | 82% | 62% | 29% | 9.3 | 44% | 3.3 | 40% | 21.0 | 41% | 19 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 |  Telstar | 34 | 37 | 26% | 1.1 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 3.1 | 88% | 59% | 38% | 11.1 | 65% | 3.5 | 41% | 21.6 | 47% | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle | 34 | 37 | 26% | 1.1 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 3.4 | 85% | 62% | 44% | 9.7 | 50% | 3.5 | 47% | 23.3 | 68% | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 45% |
| 16 |  FC Volendam | 34 | 32 | 24% | 0.9 | 35 | 55 | -20 | 2.6 | 85% | 59% | 18% | 10.3 | 62% | 3.8 | 50% | 21.8 | 50% | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 17 |  NAC Breda | 35 | 32 | 20% | 0.9 | 37 | 58 | -21 | 2.7 | 71% | 49% | 26% | 10.1 | 57% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.7 | 69% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 18 |  Heracles | 34 | 19 | 15% | 0.6 | 35 | 85 | -50 | 3.5 | 91% | 71% | 38% | 10.5 | 50% | 3.9 | 53% | 24.8 | 74% | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 45% |