Spartak Trnava is expected to take the win in this match, with a home win percentage of 59%. The draw percentage is 25%, while the away win percentage is 16%. The model's selection is a home win, with a likely score of 1-1, which has a probability of 11.8%. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total being 2 goals.
Spartak Trnava has been in good form at home, scoring an average of 1.83 goals and conceding 1.17. In contrast, Skalica has struggled away from home, scoring 0.92 goals and conceding 2 on average against stronger opponents.
The model suggests selecting Over 21.5 fouls, which has an 84.9% probability, and both Over 1.5 and Under 3.5 goals, which have been hits.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Skalica drew 1-1 with pre-match favourite Spartak Trnava, spoiling the home team's 2-game winning streak. The win extends Spartak Trnava's run of scoring 1.83 goals per match at home, but they were unable to break down Skalica's stronger away form. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, as they had predicted a 59% chance of victory. The model's call was wrong, as the team was not able to come through. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks of Over 1.5 and Under 3.5 both hit, with probabilities of 75.9% and 71.8% respectively.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartak Trnava win✗ Miss
58.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Skalica win✗ Miss
16.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartak Trnava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.30
1.57
0.93
1.44
1.62
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
2.12
0.75
1.25
0.75
3.00
vs Similar (16)
2.00
1.12
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.22
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.67
1.67
0.33
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Skalica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skalica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.43
1.23
0.92
0.94
1.82
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
2.30
0.50
1.50
1.17
2.83
vs Similar (20)
1.15
1.00
1.56
0.67
0.82
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Trnava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.9%
Under 1.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.2%
Under 2.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.2%
Under 3.5
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.6%
No
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.8%
1-0
11.3%
2-0
11.3%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.9%
3-0
6.8%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
4.8%
Spartak Trnava goals ↓
Skalica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
4.8%
2.6%
0.7%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
4.7%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
6.8%
5.9%
2.6%
0.7%
0.2%
4
3.1%
2.7%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartak Trnava goals (down), columns = Skalica goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Slovan Bratislava
2.12
Dunajska Streda
1.81
Spartak Trnava
1.75
Žilina
1.62
Zemplín Michalovce
1.38
FK Košice
1.34
Podbrezová
1.31
AS Trencin
1.31
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.18
Skalica
1.09
Ružomberok
1.09
Komárno
1.00
Spartak Trnava is 0.66 points better than Skalica in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Slovan Bratislava
1.94
Žilina
1.84
Podbrezová
1.72
Dunajska Streda
1.72
FK Košice
1.59
Spartak Trnava
1.59
Zemplín Michalovce
1.38
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.19
Skalica
1.06
Komárno
1.06
AS Trencin
1.06
Ružomberok
1.06
Spartak Trnava is 0.53 goals better than Skalica in terms of goals scored per game (1.59 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dunajska Streda
1.06
Spartak Trnava
1.16
Slovan Bratislava
1.16
Žilina
1.28
Skalica
1.41
Komárno
1.44
Ružomberok
1.56
Podbrezová
1.59
AS Trencin
1.59
Zemplín Michalovce
1.62
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.68
FK Košice
1.72
Spartak Trnava is 0.25 goals better than Skalica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.16 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Slovan Bratislava
59%
Spartak Trnava
56%
Dunajska Streda
53%
Zemplín Michalovce
52%
Podbrezová
51%
AS Trencin
51%
Žilina
50%
FK Košice
49%
Komárno
48%
Ružomberok
43%
Skalica
42%
Spartak Trnava is 13.4 percentage points better than Skalica in terms of average possession (56% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spartak Trnava
For 5.2 · Against 3.8 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.5 · Against 12.3 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Skalica
For 4.8 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 13.3 · Total 26.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartak Trnava
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.2
8.9
2.8
2.4
3.2
28.6
29.8
27.3
vs Stronger (14)
9.0
10.0
8.0
3.9
3.5
4.5
30.0
33.2
26.8
vs Similar (29)
9.5
9.4
9.5
2.4
1.8
2.9
27.3
27.9
26.7
vs Weaker (7)
8.0
7.0
9.0
2.1
1.7
2.5
30.2
30.0
30.5
% over line
44%
38%
50%
34%
25%
42%
92%
100%
83%
% under line
56%
62%
50%
66%
75%
58%
8%
0%
17%
This opponent (Skalica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skalica
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.4
8.7
3.1
3.5
2.7
26.8
27.2
26.3
vs Stronger (15)
9.2
8.5
10.0
1.9
2.5
1.4
24.8
26.8
22.8
vs Similar (35)
9.0
9.7
8.2
3.6
3.8
3.4
27.4
27.4
27.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
39%
41%
38%
48%
57%
41%
76%
76%
75%
% under line
61%
59%
62%
52%
43%
59%
24%
24%
25%
This opponent (Spartak Trnava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
AS Trencin
11.2
Podbrezová
10.6
FK Košice
10.5
Ružomberok
10.2
Dukla Banská Bystrica
10.2
Slovan Bratislava
10.2
Zemplín Michalovce
10.0
Dunajska Streda
9.9
Komárno
9.8
Skalica
9.7
Žilina
9.6
Spartak Trnava
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spartak Trnava
5.1
Slovan Bratislava
4.9
Dunajska Streda
4.9
Skalica
4.8
Podbrezová
4.7
AS Trencin
4.7
Komárno
4.5
Zemplín Michalovce
4.4
Ružomberok
4.4
FK Košice
4.2
Žilina
3.9
Dukla Banská Bystrica
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Spartak Trnava
28.1
Skalica
27.2
Komárno
27.0
Zemplín Michalovce
26.8
Podbrezová
26.5
Žilina
26.3
Dunajska Streda
26.2
Ružomberok
25.9
AS Trencin
25.5
Slovan Bratislava
25.4
FK Košice
24.0
Dukla Banská Bystrica
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.2%
Under 9.5
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
70.4%
Under 3.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
85.9%
Under 21.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spartak Trnava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.71
0.50
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.56
0.71
0.57
0.78
0.56
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.33
1.67
0.33
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Skalica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skalica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.62
0.38
0.35
1.12
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.50
0.25
0.75
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.45
0.78
0.22
0.27
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Trnava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartak Trnava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Trnava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Trnava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skalica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skalica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skalica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartak Trnava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
0.86
0.43
0.81
0.88
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.12
0.75
0.75
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (16)
1.25
0.56
1.29
0.43
1.22
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Skalica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skalica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.62
0.54
0.59
0.71
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.80
0.25
0.75
0.67
0.83
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.55
0.78
0.44
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Trnava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartak Trnava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Trnava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Trnava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skalica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skalica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skalica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (29)
€44m
DS (35)
€26m
ŽIL (38)
€18m
AT (38)
€8m
POD (32)
€8m
ST (28)
€7m
FK (33)
€7m
RUŽ (33)
€7m
ZM (33)
€6m
SKA (31)
€4m
KOM (28)
€3m
DBB (24)
€3m
Spartak Trnava's squad is €3m more valuable than Skalica's (€7m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (13)
€26m
DS (10)
€12m
ŽIL (15)
€5m
POD (13)
€3m
AT (17)
€3m
ST (10)
€3m
ZM (11)
€2m
FK (8)
€2m
RUŽ (11)
€1m
KOM (10)
€1m
DBB (7)
€1m
SKA (9)
€1m
Spartak Trnava's attack is €2m more valuable than Skalica's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DS (12)
€7m
SB (5)
€6m
ŽIL (4)
€4m
POD (7)
€2m
AT (6)
€2m
FK (9)
€2m
ZM (9)
€2m
ST (6)
€1m
RUŽ (5)
€1m
KOM (7)
€1m
SKA (7)
€1m
DBB (6)
€1m
Spartak Trnava and Skalica have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (11)
€12m
ŽIL (19)
€9m
DS (13)
€7m
RUŽ (17)
€4m
AT (15)
€4m
FK (16)
€3m
POD (12)
€3m
ST (12)
€3m
SKA (15)
€2m
ZM (13)
€2m
KOM (11)
€1m
DBB (11)
€1m
Spartak Trnava and Skalica have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Slovakia: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovakia: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Slovan Bratislava
Dunajska Streda
Žilina
Podbrezová
FK Košice
Zemplín Michalovce
Dukla Banská Bystrica
AS Trencin
Komárno
Ružomberok