Spartak Trnava are the clear favourites, with a 42 % chance of victory, a 27 % draw probability and a 31 % chance of a Žilina win. The model projects an average of 2.8 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 25 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13 % chance. Spartak, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 2.12 goals scored and 0.88 conceded, while Žilina, on the road, averages 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.3 %), Under 6.5 (97.5 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.4 % with a 5 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.1 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (95.8 % with a 4 % edge), Over 19.5 fouls (94.7 %), and Under 5.5 (93.4 % with a 5 % edge). Spartak’s five-game winning streak, highlighted by a 4-0 triumph over AS Trencin, fuels optimism, while Žilina’s recent two-game run, including a 2-1 win over Komárno, shows resilience but falls short against a potent home side.
Results analysis
The upset came as Spartak Trnava, the pre-match favourite, fell short of the model’s pick for a home win, which carried a 42% probability. The game ended 1-3 in favour of Žilina, confirming the model was wrong. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals (99.2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5%), Under 6.5 (97.6%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.9%) and Under 5.5 (93.5%). Spartak’s recent form, after a defeat, was LWWWW, while Žilina continued a four-game winning streak with a last-opponent win of 3-1. The final score of 1-3 matched the model’s most likely 2-1 outcome in probability terms.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartak Trnava win✗ Miss
41.7%
Avg Implied 51.3% · @ 1.79
Edge
-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.82
SBO
1.81
Unibet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.81
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied 24.6% · @ 3.74
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.94
Betano
3.85
Dafabet
3.85
Betfair
3.80
Žilina win✓ Hit
30.9%
Avg Implied 24.1% · @ 3.82
Edge
+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.02
Dafabet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
1xBet
3.92
Bet365
3.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartak Trnava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.13
1.94
0.69
1.50
1.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (19)
1.95
1.21
2.11
0.89
1.80
1.50
vs Weaker (7)
1.71
0.43
2.20
0.20
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Žilina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žilina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.37
1.75
1.25
1.93
1.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (12)
1.58
1.42
2.14
1.14
0.80
1.80
vs Weaker (15)
2.20
1.33
1.62
1.38
2.86
1.29
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Trnava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.1%
@ 1.18-0.8%
Under 1.5
21.9%
@ 4.41+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.55
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.1%
@ 1.60-5.1%
Under 2.5
46.9%
@ 2.23+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.27
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.25
Betfair
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.8%
@ 2.50-6.3%
Under 3.5
69.2%
@ 1.48+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.62
BetVictor
2.55
Betano
2.50
10Bet
2.50
Under
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.6%
@ 1.56-1.4%
No
42.4%
@ 2.25+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Betano
1.57
No
Betfair
2.30
1xBet
2.28
10Bet
2.25
William Hil
2.25
Unibet
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%@ 6.97+6.6%
2-1
9.0%@ 7.51+3.0%
1-0
8.1%@ 8.23+2.6%
1-2
7.6%@ 11.59+3.7%
0-0
7.3%@ 13.02+3.8%
2-0
7.0%@ 9.28+2.2%
0-1
6.6%@ 12.86+3.1%
2-2
5.8%@ 11.75+1.9%
Spartak Trnava goals ↓
Žilina goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
6.6%
5.0%
2.1%
0.7%
1
8.1%
13%
7.6%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.0%
9.0%
5.8%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.6%
4.6%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.4%
1.7%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartak Trnava goals (down), columns = Žilina goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dunajska Streda
2.60
Slovan Bratislava
2.40
Žilina
2.17
Spartak Trnava
2.17
Podbrezová
1.67
FK Košice
1.20
Skalica
1.17
Zemplín Michalovce
1.17
AS Trencin
1.00
Dukla Banská Bystrica
0.67
Komárno
0.50
Ružomberok
0.17
Spartak Trnava and Žilina are level in average points per game (both 2.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dunajska Streda
3.40
Slovan Bratislava
3.00
FK Košice
2.80
Žilina
2.50
Spartak Trnava
2.17
Podbrezová
1.67
Skalica
1.50
AS Trencin
1.40
Komárno
1.00
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.00
Zemplín Michalovce
0.83
Ružomberok
0.67
Spartak Trnava is 0.33 goals worse than Žilina in terms of goals scored per game (2.17 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dunajska Streda
0.40
Slovan Bratislava
0.60
Spartak Trnava
0.83
Zemplín Michalovce
1.17
Komárno
1.83
Žilina
2.00
Podbrezová
2.00
AS Trencin
2.20
Ružomberok
2.50
Skalica
2.50
Dukla Banská Bystrica
2.50
FK Košice
2.60
Spartak Trnava is 1.17 goals better than Žilina in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spartak Trnava
For 5.2 · Against 3.8 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.5 · Against 12.3 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Žilina
For 4.6 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 15.3 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartak Trnava
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.0
9.3
2.5
2.0
2.9
29.4
29.8
29.0
vs Stronger (5)
8.5
7.0
10.0
3.2
3.3
3.0
24.5
24.0
25.0
vs Similar (35)
9.5
9.7
9.3
2.7
2.2
3.0
29.8
30.3
29.1
vs Weaker (10)
8.0
7.0
9.0
1.5
0.8
2.5
30.2
30.0
30.5
% over line
41%
33%
50%
28%
20%
36%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
59%
67%
50%
72%
80%
64%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Žilina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žilina
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.5
10.2
1.4
1.8
1.1
26.4
25.2
28.0
vs Stronger (4)
6.7
9.0
5.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
28.7
29.0
28.5
vs Similar (23)
9.3
8.8
10.3
1.2
1.8
0.5
24.4
22.8
27.7
vs Weaker (23)
11.5
10.5
12.5
1.5
1.5
1.4
27.9
27.8
28.0
% over line
55%
55%
56%
20%
24%
16%
85%
82%
89%
% under line
45%
45%
44%
80%
76%
84%
15%
18%
11%
This opponent (Spartak Trnava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
AS Trencin
11.2
Podbrezová
10.6
FK Košice
10.5
Ružomberok
10.2
Dukla Banská Bystrica
10.2
Zemplín Michalovce
10.0
Dunajska Streda
10.0
Slovan Bratislava
9.9
Komárno
9.8
Skalica
9.7
Žilina
9.6
Spartak Trnava
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spartak Trnava
5.1
Slovan Bratislava
5.0
Dunajska Streda
4.9
Skalica
4.8
Podbrezová
4.7
AS Trencin
4.7
Komárno
4.5
Zemplín Michalovce
4.4
Ružomberok
4.4
FK Košice
4.2
Žilina
3.9
Dukla Banská Bystrica
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Spartak Trnava
28.1
Skalica
27.2
Komárno
27.0
Zemplín Michalovce
26.8
Podbrezová
26.5
Žilina
26.3
Dunajska Streda
26.3
Ružomberok
25.9
Slovan Bratislava
25.5
AS Trencin
25.5
FK Košice
24.0
Dukla Banská Bystrica
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.6%
@ 1.67-8.8%
Under 9.5
53.4%
@ 2.07+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.67
Under
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.15
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.09
10Bet
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
63.2%
Under 3.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
88.5%
Under 21.5
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Spartak Trnava or Draw✗ Miss
69.1%
Avg Implied 76.1% · @ 1.21
Edge
-7.0%
42%
27%
31%
covers Spartak Trnava + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Spartak Trnava or Žilina✓ Hit
72.6%
Avg Implied 76.0% · @ 1.22
Edge
-3.4%
42%
27%
31%
covers Spartak Trnava + Žilina
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Draw or Žilina✓ Hit
58.3%
Avg Implied 47.9% · @ 1.93
Edge
+10.4%
42%
27%
31%
covers Draw + Žilina
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.02
Betfair
2.00
SBO
1.95
William Hil
1.95
10Bet
1.95
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Spartak Trnava over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.1%
@ 1.12-4.3%
Under
21.9%
@ 5.29+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Under
1xBet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Superbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Spartak Trnava over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
44.9%
@ 1.69-10.0%
Under
55.1%
@ 2.06+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.11
Superbet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
Betano
2.07
Spartak Trnava over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.6%
@ 3.15-9.9%
Under
80.4%
@ 1.32+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.31
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Betfair
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Under
1xBet
1.35
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Spartak Trnava over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.8%
@ 6.17-8.2%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.09+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Betano
5.90
1xBet
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Žilina over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.2%
@ 1.36+3.9%
Under
27.8%
@ 2.94-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.38
Betano
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.06
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Betano
2.95
10Bet
2.95
Žilina over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
36.6%
@ 2.71+2.5%
Under
63.4%
@ 1.41-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.85
1xBet
2.77
Marathonbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Under
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Žilina over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
13.9%
@ 6.58-0.3%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.08+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.20
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Žilina over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 10.88-4.5%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Spartak Trnava, so a minus line means Spartak Trnava give that many goals of a start and Žilina receive them. At -1, Spartak Trnava must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Spartak Trnava win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Spartak Trnava)Actual: Žilina
Spartak Trnava -2
8.4%
@ 5.89-6.8%
Draw -2
12.8%
@ 5.12-4.6%
Žilina +2
78.8%
@ 1.32+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
6.05
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Bet365
5.50
Draw
Marathonbet
5.50
10Bet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Handicap -1 (Spartak Trnava)Actual: Žilina
Spartak Trnava -1
21.2%
@ 2.89-9.0%
Draw -1
20.5%
@ 3.63-3.6%
Žilina +1
58.3%
@ 1.91+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.99
Betfair
2.88
Bet365
2.88
Unibet
2.70
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.74
10Bet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.15
Away
Betfair
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Unibet
1.76
Handicap +1 (Spartak Trnava)Actual: Žilina
Spartak Trnava +1
69.1%
@ 1.21-4.8%
Draw +1
17.1%
@ 5.82+1.7%
Žilina -1
13.8%
@ 8.40+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Betfair
1.17
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
Bet365
5.50
Away
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
8.70
Bet365
7.50
Handicap +2 (Spartak Trnava)Actual: Draw
Spartak Trnava +2
86.2%
@ 1.05-2.1%
Draw +2
9.1%
@ 12.00+1.4%
Žilina -2
4.7%
@ 23.50+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
12.00
Away
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
21.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spartak Trnava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.88
0.44
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.68
0.56
0.56
0.70
0.80
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
0.29
1.80
0.20
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Žilina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žilina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
0.94
0.69
0.64
0.29
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.42
1.14
0.57
0.60
0.20
vs Weaker (15)
0.87
0.53
0.88
0.88
0.86
0.14
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Trnava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.2%
@ 1.28-0.2%
Under 0.5
27.8%
@ 3.35+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
BetVictor
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Under
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.40
William Hil
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
37.6%
@ 2.33-2.1%
Under 1.5
62.4%
@ 1.54+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.46
Betano
2.42
Bet365
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Marathonbet
2.34
Under
Superbet
1.56
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
14.1%
@ 5.13-4.0%
Under 2.5
85.9%
@ 1.13+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Betano
5.10
Superbet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Under
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartak Trnava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
51.9%
@ 1.66-4.3%
Under
48.1%
@ 2.12+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
10Bet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Under
Pinnacle
2.18
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.15
10Bet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Spartak Trnava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.6%
@ 4.22-4.3%
Under
82.4%
@ 1.19+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.50
Betano
4.20
10Bet
4.20
1xBet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Spartak Trnava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 10.25-5.3%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.03+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Žilina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.6%
@ 2.25-3.6%
Under
62.4%
@ 1.58+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.35
Betano
2.27
10Bet
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.22
Under
1xBet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Žilina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
8.5%
@ 7.45-4.0%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.06+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.50
1xBet
7.40
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
Žilina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartak Trnava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.06
0.25
0.86
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (19)
1.32
0.53
1.56
0.33
1.10
0.70
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.14
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Žilina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žilina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.87
0.81
0.56
1.29
1.21
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (12)
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.57
0.20
1.60
vs Weaker (15)
1.33
0.80
0.75
0.50
2.00
1.14
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Trnava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.5%
@ 1.17-1.4%
Under 0.5
21.5%
@ 4.62+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Under
1xBet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.70
Superbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
47.1%
@ 1.82-3.9%
Under 1.5
52.9%
@ 1.89+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.98
10Bet
1.93
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.4%
@ 3.51-5.2%
Under 2.5
78.6%
@ 1.27+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.70
Superbet
3.45
Betano
3.35
1xBet
3.30
Under
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartak Trnava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
59.2%
@ 1.44-5.1%
Under
40.8%
@ 2.60+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Under
Betano
2.62
1xBet
2.60
10Bet
2.60
Superbet
2.57
Spartak Trnava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
22.5%
@ 3.09-7.6%
Under
77.5%
@ 1.33+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.26
10Bet
3.10
1xBet
3.00
Betano
3.00
Under
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.29
Spartak Trnava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.6%
@ 7.60-5.6%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.06+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
8.00
1xBet
7.90
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Žilina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
46.7%
@ 1.87-2.7%
Under
53.3%
@ 1.83+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Under
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
Žilina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.2%
@ 5.42-3.9%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.12+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
Žilina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 13.88-4.0%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.5%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
BetVictor
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
-
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.2%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
-
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.5%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
-
+4.0%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.8%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-
-2.1%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
86.1%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+0.3%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.9%
1.13
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+4.0%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
84.7%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
Superbet
1.19
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.4%
1.19
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.4%
1.32
1xBet
1.35
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
+9.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
78.8%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
-
+11.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.6%
1.27
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.5%
1.17
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.1%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
-4.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.1%
1.18
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.5%
1.33
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.29
-
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.2%
1.42
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.40
-
+11.2%
-
Under 5.5 cards
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.6%
1.22
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
-3.4%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
72.2%
1.36
1xBet
1.38
Betano
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
1.28
Betano
1.32
BetVictor
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
-0.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Spartak Trnava · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Hilary Gong33%
Idjessi Metsoko31%
Patrick Nwadike25%
Erik Daniel20%
Timotej Kudlicka20%
Luka Khorkheli20%
Philip Azango13%
Jakub Paur12%
Roman Procházka11%
Miloš Kratochvíl11%
Abdulrahman Taiwo11%
Erik Sabo11%
Martin Mikovič6%
Michal Ďuriš0%
Kristián Koštrna0%
Filip Twardzik0%
Michal Tomič0%
Martin Vantruba0%
Marin Laušić0%
Libor Holík0%
Giorgi Moistsrapishvili0%
Lazar Stojsavljević0%
Žiga Frelih0%
Cédric Badolo0%
Roko Jureškin0%
Stefan Skrbo0%
Marek Ujlaky0%
Patrick Karhan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jakub Paur35%
Timotej Kudlicka30%
Martin Mikovič25%
Kristián Koštrna25%
Miloš Kratochvíl22%
Lazar Stojsavljević18%
Martin Vantruba17%
Erik Sabo17%
Filip Twardzik13%
Žiga Frelih13%
Roko Jureškin12%
Roman Procházka11%
Abdulrahman Taiwo11%
Libor Holík8%
Giorgi Moistsrapishvili8%
Idjessi Metsoko8%
Luka Khorkheli7%
Michal Ďuriš6%
Stefan Skrbo6%
Philip Azango0%
Hilary Gong0%
Erik Daniel0%
Michal Tomič0%
Marin Laušić0%
Cédric Badolo0%
Patrick Nwadike0%
Marek Ujlaky0%
Patrick Karhan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marin Laušić25%
Giorgi Moistsrapishvili23%
Erik Daniel20%
Martin Mikovič19%
Michal Tomič14%
Luka Khorkheli13%
Miloš Kratochvíl11%
Hilary Gong11%
Abdulrahman Taiwo11%
Erik Sabo11%
Stefan Skrbo11%
Libor Holík8%
Roko Jureškin6%
Jakub Paur6%
Roman Procházka0%
Philip Azango0%
Michal Ďuriš0%
Kristián Koštrna0%
Filip Twardzik0%
Martin Vantruba0%
Lazar Stojsavljević0%
Žiga Frelih0%
Cédric Badolo0%
Patrick Nwadike0%
Timotej Kudlicka0%
Idjessi Metsoko0%
Marek Ujlaky0%
Patrick Karhan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Patrick Nwadike25%
Timotej Kudlicka15%
Hilary Gong11%
Abdulrahman Taiwo11%
Stefan Skrbo11%
Idjessi Metsoko8%
Jakub Paur6%
Miloš Kratochvíl6%
Roman Procházka0%
Philip Azango0%
Michal Ďuriš0%
Martin Mikovič0%
Kristián Koštrna0%
Erik Daniel0%
Filip Twardzik0%
Michal Tomič0%
Martin Vantruba0%
Marin Laušić0%
Libor Holík0%
Giorgi Moistsrapishvili0%
Lazar Stojsavljević0%
Erik Sabo0%
Žiga Frelih0%
Cédric Badolo0%
Roko Jureškin0%
Luka Khorkheli0%
Marek Ujlaky0%
Patrick Karhan0%
Žilina · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adrián Kaprálik33%
Michal Faško25%
Dani Homet25%
Samuel Ďatko18%
Marko Roginić16%
Frantisek Kosa12%
Samuel Kopásek11%
Miroslav Káčer11%
Xavier Adang11%
Fabian Bzdyl8%
Regő Szánthó7%
Timotej Hranica7%
Filip Kaša6%
Patrik Iľko5%
Krisztián Bari5%
Ján Minárik0%
Lukáš Juliš0%
Ľubomír Belko0%
Ridwan Sanusi0%
Michal Svoboda0%
Jakub Badzgon0%
Aleksandre Narimanidze0%
Lukas Prokop0%
Andrei Florea0%
Tobias Paliscak0%
Marek Okal0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ridwan Sanusi67%
Miroslav Káčer26%
Filip Kaša25%
Lukas Prokop20%
Tobias Paliscak18%
Frantisek Kosa12%
Andrei Florea12%
Marko Roginić11%
Krisztián Bari11%
Xavier Adang11%
Jakub Badzgon10%
Aleksandre Narimanidze6%
Samuel Ďatko6%
Regő Szánthó0%
Ján Minárik0%
Lukáš Juliš0%
Michal Faško0%
Patrik Iľko0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Ľubomír Belko0%
Samuel Kopásek0%
Michal Svoboda0%
Timotej Hranica0%
Fabian Bzdyl0%
Marek Okal0%
Dani Homet0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Adrián Kaprálik33%
Dani Homet25%
Samuel Kopásek22%
Michal Faško20%
Patrik Iľko16%
Samuel Ďatko12%
Marko Roginić11%
Krisztián Bari11%
Regő Szánthó7%
Miroslav Káčer5%
Xavier Adang5%
Filip Kaša0%
Ján Minárik0%
Lukáš Juliš0%
Ľubomír Belko0%
Ridwan Sanusi0%
Michal Svoboda0%
Jakub Badzgon0%
Aleksandre Narimanidze0%
Lukas Prokop0%
Frantisek Kosa0%
Timotej Hranica0%
Andrei Florea0%
Fabian Bzdyl0%
Tobias Paliscak0%
Marek Okal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Marko Roginić21%
Michal Faško20%
Samuel Ďatko12%
Lukas Prokop10%
Fabian Bzdyl8%
Aleksandre Narimanidze6%
Krisztián Bari5%
Xavier Adang5%
Regő Szánthó0%
Filip Kaša0%
Ján Minárik0%
Miroslav Káčer0%
Lukáš Juliš0%
Patrik Iľko0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Ľubomír Belko0%
Samuel Kopásek0%
Ridwan Sanusi0%
Michal Svoboda0%
Jakub Badzgon0%
Frantisek Kosa0%
Timotej Hranica0%
Andrei Florea0%
Tobias Paliscak0%
Marek Okal0%
Dani Homet0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (28)
€35m
DS (27)
€15m
ŽIL (25)
€12m
AT (27)
€7m
ST (27)
€7m
FK (25)
€6m
POD (22)
€5m
RUŽ (26)
€5m
ZM (22)
€4m
KOM (24)
€3m
DBB (24)
€3m
SKA (22)
€2m
Spartak Trnava's squad is €5m less valuable than Žilina's (€7m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (12)
€15m
DS (10)
€7m
ŽIL (10)
€4m
ST (9)
€2m
POD (8)
€2m
AT (9)
€2m
FK (5)
€1m
RUŽ (10)
€1m
KOM (10)
€1m
ZM (8)
€1m
DBB (7)
€1m
SKA (6)
€0m
Spartak Trnava's attack is €2m less valuable than Žilina's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (6)
€7m
DS (6)
€4m
FK (9)
€2m
AT (6)
€2m
POD (5)
€1m
ŽIL (4)
€1m
ST (6)
€1m
RUŽ (5)
€1m
ZM (5)
€1m
DBB (6)
€1m
KOM (5)
€1m
SKA (5)
€1m
Spartak Trnava and Žilina have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (10)
€13m
ŽIL (11)
€6m
DS (11)
€5m
AT (12)
€4m
ST (12)
€3m
FK (11)
€2m
RUŽ (11)
€2m
POD (9)
€2m
ZM (9)
€2m
SKA (11)
€1m
KOM (9)
€1m
DBB (11)
€1m
Spartak Trnava's defence is €3m less valuable than Žilina's (€3m vs €6m).
Slovakia: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovakia: Super Liga stats & trends →
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Dunajska Streda
Slovan Bratislava
Podbrezová
Zemplín Michalovce
Skalica
FK Košice
AS Trencin
Dukla Banská Bystrica
Komárno
Ružomberok