PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Spartaks Jurmala vs BFC Daugavpils Result & Analysis

Date: 22/05/2022
Time: 13:00
Final 2-0
Spartaks Jurmala
Spartaks Jurmala
Vs
35%
31%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Spartaks Jurmala win✓ Hit
34.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils win✗ Miss
34.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Spartaks JurmalaSpartaks Jurmala

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L00D02L02L12L02L02L00D04L30WA·RIG05/04H·SUP11/04A·BFC15/04A·MET20/04H·AUD24/04A·RĪG01/05H·VAL05/05A·FK 10/05H·RIG14/05A·SUP18/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.542.000.502.170.571.86
vs Stronger (9)0.442.440.602.600.252.25
vs Similar (3)1.000.670.000.001.501.00
vs Weaker (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-515L00D20W00D20W10W14L01L04L02LA·FK 06/04H·RIG10/04H·SPA15/04A·SUP19/04H·MET24/04A·TUK30/04H·RĪG05/05A·VAL09/05H·FK 14/05A·RIG18/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.691.621.001.290.332.00
vs Stronger (6)0.171.830.331.330.002.33
vs Similar (6)1.001.671.331.670.671.67
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %46% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartaks Jurmala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.1%
Under 1.5
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.1%
Under 2.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.1%
Under 3.5
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.0%
No
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
11.8%
1-0
10.6%
0-1
10.4%
2-1
7.5%
1-2
7.5%
2-0 ✓
6.7%
0-2
6.6%
Spartaks Jurmala goals ↓
BFC Daugavpils goals →
01234
012%10%6.6%2.5%0.7%
111%15%7.5%2.8%0.8%
26.7%7.5%4.2%1.6%0.4%
32.5%2.8%1.6%0.6%0.2%
40.7%0.8%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartaks Jurmala goals (down), columns = BFC Daugavpils goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Valmiera / BSS
2.36
Riga
2.25
Rīgas FS
2.11
FK Liepaja
1.94
Auda
1.50
Tukums
1.06
BFC Daugavpils
0.94
Spartaks Jurmala
0.86
Super Nova
0.56
Metta / LU
0.53
Spartaks Jurmala is 0.08 points worse than BFC Daugavpils in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 0.94).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Valmiera / BSS
2.81
Rīgas FS
2.31
FK Liepaja
2.00
Riga
1.89
Auda
1.22
Metta / LU
1.06
Tukums
1.06
Spartaks Jurmala
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
0.83
Super Nova
0.67
Spartaks Jurmala is 0.19 goals better than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 0.83).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Valmiera / BSS
0.69
Rīgas FS
0.89
Auda
0.92
FK Liepaja
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.86
Tukums
1.92
Spartaks Jurmala
2.08
Super Nova
2.25
Metta / LU
2.44
Spartaks Jurmala is 0.22 goals worse than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals conceded per game (2.08 vs 1.86).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Spartaks JurmalaSpartaks Jurmala

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D00D01L10W01L01L00D03L20WA·RIG05/04H·SUP11/04A·BFC15/04A·MET20/04H·AUD24/04A·RĪG01/05H·VAL05/05A·FK 10/05H·RIG14/05A·SUP18/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.310.920.331.000.290.86
vs Stronger (9)0.221.220.401.200.001.25
vs Similar (3)0.670.000.000.001.000.00
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %38% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D00D10W00D12L01L00D01LA·FK 06/04H·RIG10/04H·SPA15/04A·SUP19/04H·MET24/04A·TUK30/04H·RĪG05/05A·VAL09/05H·FK 14/05A·RIG18/05
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.230.460.430.290.000.67
vs Stronger (6)0.170.830.330.670.001.00
vs Similar (6)0.170.170.330.000.000.33
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %62% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartaks Jurmala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartaks Jurmala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartaks Jurmala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartaks Jurmala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Spartaks JurmalaSpartaks Jurmala

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D02L01L02L01L01L00D01L10WA·RIG05/04H·SUP11/04A·BFC15/04A·MET20/04H·AUD24/04A·RĪG01/05H·VAL05/05A·FK 10/05H·RIG14/05A·SUP18/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.231.080.171.170.291.00
vs Stronger (9)0.221.220.201.400.251.00
vs Similar (3)0.330.670.000.000.501.00
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L00D20W00D10W10W02L00D04L01LA·FK 06/04H·RIG10/04H·SPA15/04A·SUP19/04H·MET24/04A·TUK30/04H·RĪG05/05A·VAL09/05H·FK 14/05A·RIG18/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.461.150.571.000.331.33
vs Stronger (6)0.001.000.000.670.001.33
vs Similar (6)0.831.501.001.670.671.33
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %54% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartaks Jurmala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartaks Jurmala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartaks Jurmala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartaks Jurmala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
SJ wins
0
Draws
1
BD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Spartaks Jurmala vs BFC Daugavpils · H/A from SJ
DateH/AGameScore
15/04/22ABFC Daugavpils Vs SJ2-0

Spartaks JurmalaSpartaks Jurmala

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/05/22ASuper Nova Vs SJ0-3
14/05/22HSJ Vs Riga0-4
10/05/22AFK Liepaja Vs SJ0-0
05/05/22HSJ Vs Valmiera / BSS0-2
01/05/22ARīgas FS Vs SJ2-0
24/04/22HSJ Vs Auda1-2
20/04/22AMetta / LU Vs SJ2-0
15/04/22ABFC Daugavpils Vs SJ2-0
11/04/22HSJ Vs Super Nova0-0
05/04/22ARiga Vs SJ3-0

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/05/22ARiga Vs BD2-0
14/05/22HBD Vs FK Liepaja0-4
09/05/22AValmiera / BSS Vs BD1-0
05/05/22HBD Vs Rīgas FS1-4
30/04/22ATukums Vs BD0-1
24/04/22HBD Vs Metta / LU2-0
19/04/22ASuper Nova Vs BD0-0
15/04/22HBD Vs Spartaks Jurmala2-0
10/04/22HBD Vs Riga0-0
06/04/22AFK Liepaja Vs BD5-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Spartaks Jurmala
Spartaks Jurmala
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLW0.38
HomeLDLLL0.17
AwayLLLDW0.57
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %8%0%14%
AVG goals2.542.672.43
Over 1.5 %85%83%86%
Over 2.5 %46%50%43%
Over 3.5 %23%33%14%
Scored0.540.500.57
Conceded2.002.171.86
BTTS23%33%14%
Clean Sheet23%17%29%
Corners---
Cards---
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL1.15
HomeDWWLL1.57
AwayLDWLL0.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %31%43%17%
AVG goals2.312.292.33
Over 1.5 %62%71%50%
Over 2.5 %38%43%33%
Over 3.5 %31%29%33%
Scored0.691.000.33
Conceded1.621.292.00
BTTS23%29%17%
Clean Sheet46%57%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3685
72%
2.4
10125+76
3.5
89%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.7
-
2RigaRiga3681
72%
2.2
6823+45
2.5
72%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7361.90.6
-
3Rīgas FSRīgas FS3676
61%
2.1
8332+51
3.2
86%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.30.9
-
4FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3670
58%
1.9
7242+30
3.2
78%
64%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.2
-
5AudaAuda3654
44%
1.5
4433+11
2.1
64%
39%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.20.9
-
6TukumsTukums3638
31%
1.1
3869-31
3.0
78%
61%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.9
-
7BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3634
25%
0.9
3067-37
2.7
72%
47%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.9
-
8Spartaks JurmalaSpartaks Jurmala3631
25%
0.9
3775-38
3.1
86%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.1
-
9Super NovaSuper Nova3620
11%
0.6
2481-57
2.9
75%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.72.2
-
10Metta / LUMetta / LU3619
11%
0.5
3888-50
3.5
89%
61%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.4
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

← all matches