The clash between Spartans and Annan Athletic is as tight as the numbers suggest, with no clear favourite beyond the model’s pick of a home win. Spartans, who have been scoring 1.6 goals and conceding just 0.7 against weaker opposition, face an away side that averages only 0.9 goals scored and 2.8 conceded against stronger teams. The model expects 2.4 goals in total, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 14.3%. The probability of a Spartans victory stands at 41%, a draw at 30%, and an Annan win at 29%. The suggested selections are: Over 2.5 cards86.7%, Under 11.5 corners78.8%, Under 3.578.4%, Over 19.5 fouls77.2% (miss), and Over 3.5 cards72.1%. Both teams have recently shown mixed form, with Spartans drawing their last match 3-3 and Annan Athletic winning 2-0. The match promises a balanced contest, but the data points to a Spartans victory as the most probable outcome.
Results analysis
The Spartans’ win extends their recent run, finishing the match 1-0 to secure a home victory. The model had picked a home win with a 41% probability, and that call proved correct. The most likely scoreline was 1-1, but the game settled on 1-0, a 28% chance outcome. The model’s selections performed well: Over 2.5 cards hit at 86.7%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 78.8%, Under 3.5 hit at 78.4%, Over 3.5 cards hit at 72.1%, while Over 19.5 fouls missed at 77.2%. Overall, the predictions largely came through, confirming the model’s accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartans win✓ Hit
40.9%
Avg Implied 49.9% · @ 1.80
Edge
-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.45
Edge
+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied 24.1% · @ 3.73
Edge
+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartans
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.37
1.53
0.80
1.40
1.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.29
1.79
1.40
1.00
1.22
2.22
vs Weaker (16)
1.62
1.00
1.60
0.70
1.67
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
3.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
2.43
1.67
2.53
1.20
2.33
vs Stronger (21)
1.33
2.76
1.73
2.73
0.90
2.80
vs Similar (9)
1.67
1.67
1.50
2.00
1.80
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.9%
Under 1.5
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.3%
@ 1.79-9.0%
Under 2.5
57.7%
@ 1.89+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.6%
Under 3.5
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.1%
No
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0 ✓
10.9%
0-0
10.6%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.5%
2-0
8.0%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
5.3%
Spartans goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.6%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
6.9%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.0%
8.5%
4.5%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.5%
3.7%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartans goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Spartans is 0.64 points better than Annan Athletic in terms of average points per game (1.78 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Spartans is 0.36 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Spartans is 0.53 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spartans
For 2.9 · Against 5.6 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 11.0 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 5.0 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 10.8 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartans
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
9.1
8.6
3.4
3.5
3.3
22.0
23.1
20.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
8.2
8.8
7.8
2.8
2.8
2.7
23.7
25.1
22.4
vs Weaker (26)
9.3
9.3
9.3
4.0
4.0
4.0
20.8
21.8
19.7
% over line
42%
45%
40%
54%
60%
48%
55%
60%
50%
% under line
58%
55%
60%
46%
40%
52%
45%
40%
50%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.7
9.6
3.0
2.6
3.4
20.2
20.5
20.0
vs Stronger (37)
9.3
8.7
9.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
19.4
21.1
17.6
vs Similar (13)
10.4
12.4
9.0
3.6
2.2
4.9
22.1
18.6
24.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
60%
52%
42%
29%
54%
37%
50%
24%
% under line
44%
40%
48%
58%
71%
46%
63%
50%
76%
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
East Kilbride
12.0
Dumbarton
11.0
Stirling
10.1
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Elgin
9.5
Forfar
9.3
Edinburgh City
9.2
Stranraer
9.0
Spartans
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
6.0
Elgin
4.8
Edinburgh City
4.7
Forfar
4.7
Stirling
4.4
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.1
Spartans
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.7
Dumbarton
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
26.5
Forfar
25.1
Elgin
24.1
Edinburgh City
24.1
Clyde
22.7
Spartans
22.2
Stirling
21.8
Stranraer
20.5
Annan Athletic
20.3
Dumbarton
19.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
43.3%
Under 9.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
72.1%
Under 3.5
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
62.3%
Under 21.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spartans
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.40
0.47
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.71
0.20
0.60
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (16)
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.40
0.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.20
0.20
1.20
0.53
1.20
vs Stronger (21)
0.33
1.43
0.27
1.27
0.40
1.60
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartans over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartans
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.77
1.13
0.33
0.60
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.71
1.07
1.20
0.40
0.44
1.44
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.50
1.10
0.30
0.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.23
1.47
1.33
0.67
1.13
vs Stronger (21)
1.00
1.33
1.45
1.45
0.50
1.20
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartans over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →