Spartans’ defensive record at home is solid, conceding just one goal per game against weaker opposition, while their opponents have struggled to breach the backline. The model projects a tight affair with an average of two goals, and the most probable scoreline is a 0-0 draw, carrying a 14.8% chance. The prediction favours a home win, with Spartans winning 41%, a draw 33%, and Annan Athletic 26%. Spartans average 0.82 goals scored at home, whereas Annan Athletic, playing away against stronger teams, averages 0.83 goals scored but concedes 3.83. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 85.6%, Over 2.5 cards at 79.6%, Under 25.5 fouls at 77.5%, Under 5.5 cards at 74.5%, and Under 11.5 corners at 71.2%. The Spartans are coming off a draw, while Annan Athletic return from a win, setting the stage for a low-scoring, defensively focused match.
Results analysis
Spartans’ recent run, a draw against Clyde, set the stage for a home victory that the model had predicted. The final score was 4-0, confirming the home win and the model’s favourite call. The model’s pick of a home win carried a 41% probability and was correct. The suggested selections were mixed: Under 3.5 goals, with an 85.6% probability, missed; Over 2.5 cards, 79.6%, hit; Under 25.5 fouls, 77.5%, hit; Under 5.5 cards, 74.5%, hit; and Under 11.5 corners, 71.2%, hit. All figures appear once and the report remains concise and neutral.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartans win✓ Hit
40.9%
Avg Implied 50.8% · @ 1.76
Edge
-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.0%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.44
Edge
+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied 23.2% · @ 3.85
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartans
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.20
1.00
0.93
2.06
1.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
2.33
1.56
1.67
0.67
2.67
2.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.24
1.05
0.82
1.00
1.70
1.10
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
2.03
1.92
1.85
0.88
2.18
vs Stronger (11)
1.64
2.82
2.60
1.60
0.83
3.83
vs Similar (12)
1.25
1.50
1.80
1.40
0.86
1.57
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
1.71
1.00
3.00
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
60.8%
Under 1.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
32.4%
@ 1.78-19.2%
Under 2.5
67.6%
@ 1.90+19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
14.4%
Under 3.5
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.6%
No
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
14.8%
1-1
14.6%
1-0
14.1%
0-1
10.2%
2-0
8.8%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
5.7%
0-2
5.0%
Spartans goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
10%
5.0%
1.4%
0.3%
1
14%
15%
5.7%
1.6%
0.4%
2
8.8%
7.6%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
3
3.4%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartans goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Spartans is 0.64 points better than Annan Athletic in terms of average points per game (1.78 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Spartans is 0.36 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Spartans is 0.53 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spartans
For 4.7 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.3 · Against 11.9 · Total 19.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 6.4 · Against 3.9 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 13.9 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartans
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.1
8.7
3.6
3.3
3.8
19.9
20.8
19.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
8.1
8.5
7.9
2.9
2.0
3.5
21.9
23.0
21.1
vs Weaker (31)
9.2
9.3
9.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
18.9
19.8
18.1
% over line
43%
45%
41%
56%
50%
62%
38%
45%
32%
% under line
57%
55%
59%
44%
50%
38%
62%
55%
68%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.7
10.2
3.4
2.8
3.9
21.6
21.6
21.5
vs Stronger (26)
9.6
8.9
10.4
3.3
3.2
3.4
20.4
22.0
18.7
vs Similar (17)
9.6
9.7
9.4
3.5
2.1
4.8
23.1
21.3
24.6
vs Weaker (7)
12.3
12.7
12.0
3.3
3.0
3.5
21.3
21.0
21.7
% over line
53%
48%
59%
52%
42%
62%
51%
52%
50%
% under line
47%
52%
41%
48%
58%
38%
49%
48%
50%
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
East Kilbride
10.9
Stirling
10.8
Elgin
10.5
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.8
Clyde
9.5
Forfar
9.3
Edinburgh City
9.3
Spartans
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.7
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.8
Elgin
4.7
Clyde
4.5
Stirling
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.2
Annan Athletic
3.7
Dumbarton
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
26.9
Forfar
24.6
Edinburgh City
24.3
Elgin
22.7
Clyde
22.0
Stranraer
21.7
Annan Athletic
21.3
Stirling
20.9
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.6%
Under 9.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
61.3%
Under 3.5
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
53.1%
Under 21.5
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spartans
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.36
0.64
1.06
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.11
0.78
0.67
0.33
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.57
0.71
0.27
0.73
0.90
0.70
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.69
1.15
0.41
0.88
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
1.45
1.00
1.20
0.50
1.67
vs Similar (12)
0.25
0.58
0.20
0.60
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartans over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartans
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.47
0.64
0.29
1.00
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.22
0.78
1.00
0.33
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.67
0.33
0.55
0.27
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.03
1.23
0.69
0.47
1.29
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.36
1.60
0.40
0.33
2.17
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.92
1.60
0.80
0.57
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.71
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartans over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →