PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Spartans vs Bonnyrigg Rose Result & Analysis

Date: 30/09/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 2-2
Spartans
Spartans
Vs
34%
32%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Spartans win✗ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied 43.4% · @ 2.12
Edge
-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
32.1%
Avg Implied 28.1% · @ 3.27
Edge
+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose win✗ Miss
34.4%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.22
Edge
+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

SpartansSpartans

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D21W10W01L22D22DH·CLY05/08A·DUM12/08H·ELG19/08A·PET26/08H·STE02/09A·FOR16/09H·EAS23/09
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.291.141.251.251.331.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)1.671.002.001.501.000.00
vs Weaker (4)1.001.250.501.001.501.50
Clean sheet %14% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W00D30W11D20W11D21W51W12L01LA·FOR22/04A·ANN29/04H·ELG06/05H·DUM05/08A·CLY12/08H·STR19/08A·FOR26/08H·ELG02/09A·PET16/09H·STE23/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.071.271.330.800.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.501.002.251.500.750.50
vs Weaker (22)0.861.090.911.270.820.91
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%022%128%219%311%45%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.1%
Under 1.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.9%
@ 1.98-10.1%
Under 2.5
63.1%
@ 1.75+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
17.4%
Under 3.5
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.1%
No
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
12.8%
0-1
11.2%
1-0
11.0%
1-2
7.3%
2-1
7.2%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
6.6%
Spartans goals ↓
Bonnyrigg Rose goals →
01234
013%11%6.8%2.5%0.7%
111%15%7.3%2.7%0.7%
26.6%7.2%3.9%1.4%0.4%
32.4%2.6%1.4%0.5%0.1%
40.6%0.7%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartans goals (down), columns = Bonnyrigg Rose goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stenhousemuir
1.89
Peterhead
1.67
Spartans
1.61
Dumbarton
1.58
East Fife
1.22
Forfar
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.08
Clyde
1.06
Stranraer
1.00
Spartans is 0.53 points better than Bonnyrigg Rose in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.08).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Peterhead
1.61
Dumbarton
1.56
Spartans
1.47
Stenhousemuir
1.39
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
East Fife
1.28
Clyde
1.28
Stranraer
1.06
Forfar
1.06
Elgin
0.97
Spartans is 0.17 goals better than Bonnyrigg Rose in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.31).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Stenhousemuir
0.86
Peterhead
1.08
Spartans
1.19
Dumbarton
1.22
Forfar
1.25
East Fife
1.31
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.33
Stranraer
1.47
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.64
Spartans is 0.14 goals better than Bonnyrigg Rose in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.33).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

SpartansSpartans

For 6.0 · Against 3.1 · Total 9.1

ðŸšĐ Corners

130524510353537462791388118H·EASA·FORH·STEA·PETH·ELGA·DUMH·CLY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.1

ðŸŸĻ Cards

502223111431114525042H·EASA·FORH·STEA·PETH·ELGA·DUMH·CLY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.0 · Against 8.6 · Total 15.6

⚠ïļ Fouls

19081081167810118573718191318191210H·EASA·FORH·STEA·PETH·ELGA·DUMH·CLY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

For 5.2 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.4

ðŸšĐ Corners

1404232634324541047542736597691412610H·STEA·PETH·ELGA·FORH·STRA·CLYH·DUMH·ELGA·ANNA·FOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.2

ðŸŸĻ Cards

805325111321232115228724325272H·STEA·PETH·ELGA·FORH·STRA·CLYH·DUMH·ELGA·ANNA·FOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 12.0 · Total 25.7

⚠ïļ Fouls

410131512212211202112810613121021211131328333341201625122326H·STEA·PETH·ELGA·FORH·STRA·CLYH·DUMH·ELGA·ANNA·FOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

SpartansSpartans

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (7)9.19.09.33.12.04.715.615.016.3
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (3)7.77.58.03.02.05.018.318.518.0
vs Weaker (4)10.210.510.03.22.04.513.511.515.5
% over line29%25%33%57%25%100%0%0%0%
% under line71%75%67%43%75%0%100%100%100%
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (43)9.310.18.44.34.24.523.023.422.7
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (14)9.211.37.13.63.33.922.921.924.0
vs Weaker (29)9.39.59.04.74.74.823.124.122.1
% over line44%55%33%60%59%62%60%59%62%
% under line56%45%67%40%41%38%40%41%38%
This opponent (Spartans) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Stenhousemuir
10.9
Forfar
10.6
Dumbarton
10.3
Stranraer
9.8
Clyde
9.6
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.3
Peterhead
9.2
Spartans
9.1
East Fife
9.1
Elgin
8.8

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Dumbarton
4.6
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.3
Stenhousemuir
4.3
Peterhead
4.3
East Fife
4.1
Stranraer
3.9
Elgin
3.9
Clyde
3.7
Forfar
3.5
Spartans
3.1

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Bonnyrigg Rose
23.0
Peterhead
22.5
Forfar
22.4
Elgin
22.1
Clyde
21.4
Stranraer
21.3
East Fife
21.3
Stenhousemuir
21.0
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
15.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
40.1%
Under 9.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.9%
Under 3.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
43.8%
Under 21.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SpartansSpartans

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D00D00D21W10WH·CLY05/08A·DUM12/08H·ELG19/08A·PET26/08H·STE02/09A·FOR16/09H·EAS23/09
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.290.250.250.670.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)0.330.000.500.000.000.00
vs Weaker (4)0.500.500.000.501.000.50
Clean sheet %71% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D01L10W10W10W20W00D00DA·FOR22/04A·ANN29/04H·ELG06/05H·DUM05/08A·CLY12/08H·STR19/08A·FOR26/08H·ELG02/09A·PET16/09H·STE23/09
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.370.470.530.330.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.250.380.500.750.000.00
vs Weaker (22)0.450.360.450.450.450.27
Clean sheet %73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartans over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SpartansSpartans

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D21W10W01L01L12LH·CLY05/08A·DUM12/08H·ELG19/08A·PET26/08H·STE02/09A·FOR16/09H·EAS23/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.860.861.001.000.670.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)1.331.001.501.501.000.00
vs Weaker (4)0.500.750.500.500.501.00
Clean sheet %29% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Bonnyrigg Rose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D30W10W10W01L11D31W12L01LA·FOR22/04A·ANN29/04H·ELG06/05H·DUM05/08A·CLY12/08H·STR19/08A·FOR26/08H·ELG02/09A·PET16/09H·STE23/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.700.800.800.470.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.250.621.750.750.750.50
vs Weaker (22)0.410.730.450.820.360.64
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartans over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bonnyrigg Rose over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards84.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls84.1%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.582.6%-------✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners81.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls72.0%-------✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners71.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards70.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards70.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (2)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
SPA wins
0
Draws
0
BR wins

Head-to-head

Spartans vs Bonnyrigg Rose · H/A from SPA
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

SpartansSpartans

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/23HSPA Vs East Fife2-2
16/09/23AForfar Vs SPA2-2
02/09/23HSPA Vs Stenhousemuir0-1
26/08/23APeterhead Vs SPA0-1
19/08/23HSPA Vs Elgin2-1
12/08/23ADumbarton Vs SPA1-1
05/08/23HSPA Vs Clyde1-1

BR
Bonnyrigg Rose

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/23HBR Vs Stenhousemuir0-1
16/09/23APeterhead Vs BR2-1
02/09/23HBR Vs Elgin5-1
26/08/23AForfar Vs BR1-2
19/08/23HBR Vs Stranraer1-1
12/08/23AClyde Vs BR0-2
05/08/23HBR Vs Dumbarton1-1
06/05/23HBR Vs Elgin3-0
29/04/23AAnnan Athletic Vs BR0-0
22/04/23AForfar Vs BR0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Spartans
Spartans
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDD1.43
HomeDWLD1.25
AwayDWD1.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%25%33%
AVG goals2.432.502.33
Over 1.5 %71%75%67%
Over 2.5 %43%50%33%
Over 3.5 %29%25%33%
Scored1.291.251.33
Conceded1.141.251.00
BTTS71%75%67%
Clean Sheet14%0%33%
Corners9.149.009.33
Cards3.142.004.67
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLL1.23
HomeWDDWL1.18
AwayWDWWL1.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%32%33%
AVG goals2.372.821.90
Over 1.5 %70%82%57%
Over 2.5 %40%41%38%
Over 3.5 %19%27%10%
Scored1.121.320.90
Conceded1.261.501.00
BTTS47%55%38%
Clean Sheet33%23%43%
Corners9.2610.098.38
Cards4.354.234.48

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3668
50%
1.9
5031+19
2.2
64%
36%
22%
9.8
50%
4.2
61%
23.0
56%
0
0001.40.9
-
2PeterheadPeterhead3660
44%
1.7
5839+19
2.7
81%
56%
25%
8.7
39%
5.1
89%
25.0
78%
0
0001.61.1
-
3SpartansSpartans3658
42%
1.6
5343+10
2.7
69%
56%
31%
9.4
47%
3.2
42%
20.9
44%
0
0001.51.2
-
4DumbartonDumbarton3657
44%
1.6
5644+12
2.8
67%
44%
36%
11.1
61%
3.9
61%
19.8
33%
0
0001.61.2
-
5East FifeEast Fife3644
31%
1.2
4647-1
2.6
81%
47%
25%
9.1
44%
3.5
56%
21.9
50%
0
0001.31.3
-
6ForfarForfar3642
25%
1.2
3845-7
2.3
72%
42%
22%
9.7
50%
3.5
50%
24.8
75%
0
0001.11.2
-
7ElginElgin3640
28%
1.1
3559-24
2.6
81%
50%
22%
8.8
39%
3.7
47%
25.0
69%
0
0001.01.6
-
8
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
3639
25%
1.1
4748-1
2.6
78%
44%
31%
9.6
44%
4.0
50%
24.2
58%
0
0001.31.3
-
9ClydeClyde3638
25%
1.1
4658-12
2.9
83%
56%
28%
9.0
42%
3.4
50%
20.8
50%
0
0001.31.6
-
10StranraerStranraer3636
25%
1.0
3853-15
2.5
75%
47%
25%
10.3
67%
3.6
44%
20.0
36%
0
0001.11.5
-
Scotland: League Two 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

← all matches