PythiaFootballBETA
The contest between Spartans and Edinburgh City feels razor-thin, with the model favouring a home win yet leaving room for a draw or an away triumph. The probabilities are 41% for Spartans, 31% for a stalemate, and 28% for Edinburgh City. The expected goal total sits at 2.3, and the most probable aggregate is two goals, a 28% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 14.4% probability.
Spartans, playing at home against a weaker side, have been scoring 1.56 goals per game while conceding only 1.0. Edinburgh City, on the road against a stronger opponent, average 1.0 goal scored and 1.62 conceded. These figures suggest Spartans should have a slight edge in attack and defence.
The model’s selections include Under 11.5 corners at 81.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 81.3%, Under 3.5 at 80.1%, Over 19.5 fouls at 78.3%, Under 5.5 cards at 72.3%, and Under 10.5 corners at 72.1%. Each is presented with its probability, and no additional commentary is attached.
Spartans’ win over Edinburgh City on 3 May extended a modest run, with the home side coming off a draw against Clyde. The model had named a Home win as the favourite, assigning it a 41% probability, and the call proved correct as the Spartans edged a 3-1 victory. The pre-match expectation of 2.3 goals and a most likely total of 2 (28%) did not materialise, yet the final tally exceeded the forecast. The model’s selections delivered mixed results: Under 11.5 corners (81.5%) missed, Over 2.5 cards (81.3%) hit, Under 3.5 (80.1%) missed, Over 19.5 fouls (78.3%) missed, Under 5.5 cards (72.3%) hit, and Under 10.5 corners (72.1%) missed.
Spartans| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.47 | 1.33 | 1.13 | 1.33 | 1.80 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.15 | 1.85 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.29 | 2.29 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 1.47 | 1.18 | 1.56 | 1.00 | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+3pp vs league) | |||||
Edinburgh City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 1.10 | 1.88 | 1.00 | 1.07 | 1.21 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 1.65 | 1.29 | 2.22 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.62 |
| vs Similar (6) | 1.83 | 0.83 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.86 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
| Edinburgh City goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 12% | 14% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.2% | 8.3% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
SpartansEdinburgh CitySpartans| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.9 | 9.5 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 22.2 | 22.9 | 21.5 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 8.2 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 23.2 | 24.4 | 22.2 |
| vs Weaker (25) | 9.5 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 21.3 | 21.7 | 20.8 |
| % over line | 44% | 48% | 41% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 51% | 52% | 50% |
| % under line | 56% | 52% | 59% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 49% | 48% | 50% |
Edinburgh City| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 24.3 | 25.0 | 23.5 |
| vs Stronger (31) | 9.3 | 10.0 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 23.4 | 23.7 | 23.1 |
| vs Similar (10) | 9.2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 26.3 | 27.0 | 25.2 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 8.9 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 24.6 | 26.0 | 23.2 |
| % over line | 43% | 50% | 36% | 62% | 72% | 52% | 73% | 77% | 68% |
| % under line | 57% | 50% | 64% | 38% | 28% | 48% | 27% | 23% | 32% |
Spartans| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.40 | 0.53 | 0.73 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.54 | 0.62 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 0.59 | 0.47 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0.75 | 0.38 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
Edinburgh City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.27 | 0.69 | 0.25 | 0.57 | 0.29 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 0.65 | 0.24 | 0.78 | 0.22 | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| vs Similar (6) | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 73% (+47pp vs league) | |||||
Spartans| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.62 | 1.23 | 0.67 | 0.83 | 0.57 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 0.88 | 0.71 | 1.11 | 0.44 | 0.62 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
Edinburgh City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.83 | 1.19 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 1.00 | 1.06 | 1.44 | 0.78 | 0.50 | 1.38 |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.83 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 11.5 corners | 81.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 cards | 81.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 80.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 78.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 5.5 cards | 72.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 72.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/25 | A | 5-0 | |
| 28/12/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 12/10/24 | A | 2-0 |
Spartans| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 19/04/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 12/04/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 05/04/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 29/03/25 | A | 4-2 | |
| 22/03/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 15/03/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 11/03/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 08/03/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 01/03/25 | H | 3-1 |
Edinburgh City| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 19/04/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 12/04/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 05/04/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 29/03/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/03/25 | H | 5-2 | |
| 15/03/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 08/03/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 01/03/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 22/02/25 | A | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Peterhead | 36 | 66 | 53% | 1.8 | 52 | 40 | +12 | 2.6 | 61% | 44% | 33% | 8.5 | 36% | 5.3 | 86% | 25.0 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | - |
| 2 |  East Fife | 36 | 65 | 56% | 1.8 | 65 | 37 | +28 | 2.8 | 72% | 47% | 28% | 9.7 | 56% | 4.2 | 67% | 23.6 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Edinburgh City | 36 | 56 | 47% | 1.6 | 54 | 47 | +7 | 2.8 | 75% | 47% | 28% | 9.2 | 42% | 4.8 | 81% | 24.4 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 4 |  Elgin | 36 | 55 | 44% | 1.5 | 48 | 41 | +7 | 2.5 | 72% | 39% | 19% | 9.4 | 53% | 4.8 | 75% | 23.4 | 61% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | - |
| 5 | Spartans | 36 | 52 | 42% | 1.4 | 48 | 47 | +1 | 2.6 | 75% | 47% | 31% | 8.8 | 39% | 4.2 | 67% | 22.0 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 6 |  Stirling | 36 | 48 | 39% | 1.3 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 3.0 | 86% | 61% | 33% | 10.1 | 64% | 4.2 | 61% | 21.5 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | - |
| 7 |  Clyde | 36 | 43 | 31% | 1.2 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 2.9 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 9.6 | 50% | 4.6 | 64% | 22.8 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | - |
| 8 | BR Bonnyrigg Rose | 36 | 42 | 33% | 1.2 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 2.8 | 86% | 50% | 28% | 9.0 | 39% | 4.9 | 78% | 24.4 | 69% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | - |
| 9 |  Stranraer | 36 | 40 | 31% | 1.1 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 2.1 | 67% | 42% | 11% | 9.1 | 42% | 4.2 | 56% | 20.6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.2 | - |
| 10 |  Forfar | 36 | 36 | 22% | 1.0 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 2.0 | 61% | 33% | 11% | 9.3 | 36% | 4.9 | 78% | 24.7 | 78% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | - |