Spartans vs Edinburgh City Result & Analysis

The contest between Spartans and Edinburgh City feels razor-thin, with the model favouring a home win but only by a narrow margin. Home win probability 38%, draw 29%, away win 34%. The most likely result is a Spartans victory, yet the expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1 with a 13.6% chance. Spartans, playing at home against a weaker side, average 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Edinburgh City, on the road against a stronger opponent, average 1.12 scored and 3.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 86.8%, Under 11.5 corners at 81.1%, Over 19.5 fouls at 75.5%, Over 1.5 at 75.4%, Under 3.5 at 72.6%, Over 3.5 cards at 72.2%, Under 25.5 fouls at 71.6%, and Under 10.5 corners at 71.5%. Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcome is given a win chance.

The surprise came early as the pre-match favourite, Spartans, failed to deliver a win, with Edinburgh City securing a 0-1 away victory. The model had tipped a home win with a 38% probability, but this call was wrong. The final score of 0-1 matched the actual result of an away win. The model’s selection of “Over 2.5 cards” hit, as 86.8% probability proved correct, while “Under 11.5 corners” missed despite an 81.1% chance. “Over 19.5 fouls” and “Over 1.5” both missed, even though they carried 75.5% and 75.4% probabilities respectively. “Under 3.5” and “Over 3.5 cards” hit with 72.6% and 72.2% chances, and “Under 25.5 fouls” also hit at 71.6%. The “Under 10.5 corners” selection missed, though it had a 71.5% probability. The Spartans’ recent form, coming off a draw, was not enough to overturn the odds, while Edinburgh City, also coming off a draw, proved the stronger side on the day.