PythiaFootballBETA
The contest between Spartans and Edinburgh City is a knife-edge affair, with the model favouring an away win at 38%. Home and away chances sit at 32% and 30% respectively, so no side is comfortably ahead. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly low-scoring game, and the most probable total is two goals, a 27% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 14.2% probability, reflecting the evenly matched nature of the sides.
Spartans, playing at home against a weaker opponent, average 1.09 goals scored and 1.09 conceded. Edinburgh City, on the road against a stronger side, average 1.14 scored but concede 2.86. These figures underline the defensive solidity the Spartans bring and the offensive pressure Edinburgh will apply.
The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 82.1%, Under 25.5 fouls at 78.2%, Under 3.5 goals at 77.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 72.4%, Over 1.5 goals at 71.2% (miss), and Under 5.5 cards at 71.1%. Each selection carries its own probability, with no edge percentages noted.
The pre-match favourite, Edinburgh City, fell short as the game finished 0-0, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. The Spartans, fresh from a draw, kept their defensive solidity while Edinburgh City, coming off a draw, struggled to break the deadlock. The model had tipped an away win at 38% and a total of 2.4 goals, yet the match saw no goals at all. The suggested picks were mixed: Over 2.5 cards missed at 82.1%, Under 25.5 fouls hit at 78.2%, Under 3.5 hit at 77.1%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 72.4%, Over 1.5 missed at 71.2%, and Under 5.5 cards hit at 71.1%. The final score of 0-0 confirmed the unexpected stalemate.
Spartans| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.17 | 1.27 | 1.00 | 2.07 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 2.20 | 1.40 | 1.75 | 0.75 | 2.50 | 1.83 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 1.40 | 1.05 | 1.09 | 1.09 | 1.78 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-0pp vs league) | |||||
Edinburgh City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 2.13 | 1.27 | 2.33 | 1.40 | 1.93 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 1.08 | 2.62 | 1.00 | 2.33 | 1.14 | 2.86 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.82 | 1.73 | 1.83 | 2.33 | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.00 | 1.83 | 0.67 | 2.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-13pp vs league) | |||||
| Edinburgh City goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 10% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 8.8% | 14% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 5.8% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 2.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
SpartansEdinburgh CitySpartans| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.7 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 20.2 | 21.0 | 19.6 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 7.9 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 21.8 | 23.0 | 21.1 |
| vs Weaker (30) | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 19.3 | 20.1 | 18.4 |
| % over line | 40% | 40% | 39% | 58% | 54% | 62% | 40% | 45% | 35% |
| % under line | 60% | 60% | 61% | 42% | 46% | 38% | 60% | 55% | 65% |
Edinburgh City| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 24.3 | 25.3 | 23.2 |
| vs Stronger (25) | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 25.0 | 26.0 | 23.8 |
| vs Similar (15) | 9.0 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 24.1 | 24.5 | 23.7 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 9.6 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 22.9 | 24.8 | 21.4 |
| % over line | 45% | 48% | 43% | 72% | 69% | 75% | 70% | 74% | 67% |
| % under line | 55% | 52% | 57% | 28% | 31% | 25% | 30% | 26% | 33% |
Spartans| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.67 | 1.13 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 0.65 | 0.70 | 0.36 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
Edinburgh City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.73 | 1.20 | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.62 | 1.23 | 0.83 | 1.67 | 0.43 | 0.86 |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.82 | 0.64 | 0.67 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
Spartans| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.43 | 0.87 | 0.33 | 0.93 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 1.20 | 0.60 | 1.25 | 0.25 | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 0.75 | 0.35 | 0.73 | 0.36 | 0.78 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+40pp vs league) | |||||
Edinburgh City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 1.23 | 0.53 | 1.13 | 0.73 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.46 | 1.38 | 0.17 | 0.67 | 0.71 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.00 | 1.09 | 1.17 | 1.50 | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.33 | 1.17 | 0.00 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 82.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 78.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 77.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 72.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 71.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 5.5 cards | 71.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/25 | A | 1-3 | |
| 04/10/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 03/05/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 15/02/25 | A | 5-0 | |
| 28/12/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 12/10/24 | A | 2-0 |
Spartans| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 27/01/26 | A | 0-6 | |
| 24/01/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 17/01/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 03/01/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 27/12/25 | A | 1-3 | |
| 20/12/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 13/12/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 06/12/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 29/11/25 | A | 1-2 |
Edinburgh City| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 31/01/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 24/01/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 10/01/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 03/01/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/12/25 | H | 1-3 | |
| 20/12/25 | A | 2-3 | |
| 13/12/25 | H | 1-4 | |
| 06/12/25 | H | 4-3 | |
| 29/11/25 | A | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  East Kilbride | 36 | 69 | 58% | 1.9 | 77 | 46 | +31 | 3.4 | 92% | 69% | 50% | 10.4 | 58% | 5.6 | 83% | 26.4 | 81% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.3 | - |
| 2 | Spartans | 36 | 64 | 50% | 1.8 | 60 | 39 | +21 | 2.8 | 83% | 53% | 28% | 9.4 | 47% | 4.0 | 58% | 19.9 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.1 | - |
| 3 |  Clyde | 36 | 56 | 39% | 1.6 | 58 | 41 | +17 | 2.8 | 83% | 53% | 33% | 9.8 | 42% | 4.1 | 61% | 21.4 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | - |
| 4 |  Forfar | 36 | 50 | 36% | 1.4 | 51 | 47 | +4 | 2.7 | 72% | 50% | 36% | 9.2 | 50% | 4.1 | 58% | 23.8 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | - |
| 5 |  Stranraer | 36 | 47 | 33% | 1.3 | 46 | 46 | +0 | 2.6 | 78% | 50% | 28% | 11.0 | 63% | 4.3 | 66% | 22.5 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 6 |  Elgin | 36 | 44 | 31% | 1.2 | 51 | 55 | -4 | 2.9 | 86% | 56% | 25% | 10.5 | 60% | 4.2 | 60% | 22.8 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 |  Annan Athletic | 36 | 41 | 28% | 1.1 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 2.9 | 78% | 56% | 36% | 9.9 | 50% | 4.4 | 64% | 23.8 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | - |
| 8 |  Dumbarton | 36 | 40 | 28% | 1.1 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 3.0 | 92% | 58% | 28% | 10.6 | 54% | 3.5 | 46% | 20.8 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | - |
| 9 | Edinburgh City | 36 | 39 | 28% | 1.1 | 45 | 72 | -27 | 3.2 | 86% | 69% | 44% | 9.5 | 51% | 5.2 | 80% | 23.8 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 10 |  Stirling | 36 | 38 | 25% | 1.1 | 46 | 63 | -17 | 3.0 | 83% | 58% | 36% | 11.4 | 58% | 4.1 | 58% | 20.7 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | - |