In this Scotland: League Two matchup between Spartans and Edinburgh City, the home win is the most likely outcome, with Spartans holding a 52% chance of victory. A draw is the second most probable result at 28%, while Edinburgh City's chances of winning sit at 20%. The model predicts a home win as the favourite, with an expected total of 2.5 goals and the most likely total being 2 goals.
The single most likely score is a 1-1 draw, occurring 13.1% of the time. Spartans have a strong home form, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding 0.9 when playing at home against weaker opponents. Edinburgh City, on the other hand, averages 0.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded when playing away against stronger opponents.
The model's selections include an under 3.5 total at 76.5% and an over 1.5 total at 71.8%. Spartans have a 52% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 20% chance of losing. The model's suggested picks include under 3.5 at 76.5% and over 1.5 at 71.8%.
Results analysis
In a shocking turn of events, Edinburgh City has pulled off a remarkable draw at Spartans, spoiling the home side's winning streak. This extends Edinburgh City's run of competitive performances, having come off a win and a strong away form against stronger opponents. The final score was 2-2, a result that contradicts the expected low-scoring affair, with the most likely total goals being 2. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 52%. The model's call on Over 1.5 goals was correct, with a 71.8% probability, while Under 3.5 goals was a 76.5% probability that missed.
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
Spartans winâ Miss
52.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâ Hit
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City winâ Miss
19.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
â― 2. Goal Analysis
Spartans
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.20
1.29
0.79
1.88
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.88
1.38
1.00
0.67
2.40
1.80
vs Weaker (22)
1.50
1.14
1.36
0.82
1.64
1.45
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
2.23
1.33
2.47
0.73
2.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
2.54
0.43
3.00
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (11)
1.64
1.91
2.40
1.80
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
2.17
1.67
2.33
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.8%
Under 1.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.8%
Under 2.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.5%
Under 3.5
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.9%
No
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0
12.2%
2-0
10.6%
0-0
9.7%
2-1
9.4%
0-1
6.3%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.3%
Spartans goals ↓
Edinburgh City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
6.3%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.3%
1.6%
0.3%
2
11%
9.4%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
5.6%
4.9%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.2%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartans goals (down), columns = Edinburgh City goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Elgin
2.20
Clyde
2.00
Forfar
1.60
Edinburgh City
1.60
Stranraer
1.40
Spartans
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Kelty Hearts
1.20
Stirling
0.80
Dumbarton
0.60
Spartans is 0.40 points worse than Edinburgh City in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.60).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Elgin
3.40
Spartans
2.40
Clyde
2.20
Edinburgh City
1.40
Kelty Hearts
1.40
Forfar
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Stirling
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Dumbarton
0.40
Spartans is 1.00 goals better than Edinburgh City in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 1.40).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Forfar
1.00
Elgin
1.00
Clyde
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.40
Edinburgh City
1.60
Dumbarton
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Spartans
2.20
Stirling
2.40
Spartans is 0.60 goals worse than Edinburgh City in terms of goals conceded per game (2.20 vs 1.60).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Spartans
For 6.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.8
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 10.6 · Total 21.9
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Edinburgh City
For 3.1 · Against 6.3 · Total 9.4
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.5
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartans
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.8
10.1
2.9
3.2
2.7
19.9
21.7
18.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
8.3
7.5
9.0
2.3
2.4
2.2
22.9
26.5
20.0
vs Weaker (36)
9.8
9.1
10.4
3.2
3.4
2.9
19.0
20.4
17.6
% over line
49%
39%
58%
42%
46%
38%
32%
50%
16%
% under line
51%
61%
42%
58%
54%
62%
68%
50%
84%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.1
9.7
3.9
3.7
4.0
23.4
24.5
22.5
vs Stronger (22)
10.4
9.2
11.4
3.2
3.1
3.3
23.7
24.5
23.0
vs Similar (17)
8.9
8.5
9.2
4.6
4.2
5.0
24.1
25.0
23.2
vs Weaker (11)
8.8
10.0
7.8
4.2
4.2
4.2
21.9
23.5
20.6
% over line
50%
33%
65%
60%
56%
64%
63%
67%
60%
% under line
50%
67%
35%
40%
44%
36%
37%
33%
40%
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.9
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Forfar
9.1
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dumbarton
3.5
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Clyde
21.7
Stirling
21.1
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.0%
Under 9.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.0%
Under 3.5
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
56.8%
Under 21.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spartans
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.40
0.50
0.21
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (22)
0.50
0.36
0.64
0.27
0.36
0.45
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.00
0.93
1.07
0.40
0.93
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
1.38
0.43
1.86
0.17
0.83
vs Similar (11)
0.91
0.64
1.60
0.00
0.33
1.17
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.83
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartans over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartans
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.80
0.79
0.57
1.31
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.25
0.88
1.00
0.67
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.00
0.77
0.73
0.55
1.27
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.23
0.40
1.40
0.33
1.07
vs Stronger (13)
0.08
1.15
0.00
1.14
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.27
0.80
1.80
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartans over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elgin
Clyde
Forfar
Stranraer
Annan Athletic
Kelty Hearts
Stirling
Dumbarton