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Spartans vs Elgin Result & Analysis

Date: 25/04/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 1-1
Spartans
Spartans
Vs
48%
29%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Spartans are the favoured side, with a 48% chance of victory, a 29% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of an Elgin win. The model predicts an average of 2.4 goals, most likely a 2-goal total with a 27% probability. The single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, which carries a 13.7% chance. Spartans, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 1.5 goals scored and only 0.75 conceded, while Elgin, on the road, averages no goals scored and 2.33 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 80.3%, Under 3.5 goals at 77.2%, Under 25.5 fouls at 76.9% (miss), Over 2.5 cards at 74.5%, Under 11.5 corners at 72.7%, Over 1.5 goals at 71.1% and Over 19.5 fouls at 70.2%. The match is set to be a tight encounter, with Spartans’ recent draw against Elgin hinting at a balanced contest.

Results analysis

The match finished 1-1, a draw that left the pre-match favourite - a home win - disappointed. The model had given the Spartans a 48% chance to triumph, yet the result was a stalemate. The Spartans, coming off a 3-3 draw in their last outing, were expected to extend their recent form, but Elgin held them to a level scoreline. The model’s selection for the total goals was 2.4, with 27% probability for a 2-goal outcome, but the match produced only two goals, matching the most likely score of 1-1. Among the suggested picks, Under 5.5 cards hit with an 80.3% probability, Under 3.5 hit at 77.2%, Under 25.5 fouls missed at 76.9%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 74.5%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 72.7%, Over 1.5 hit at 71.1%, and Over 19.5 fouls hit at 70.2%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Spartans win✗ Miss
47.9%
Avg Implied 53.7% · @ 1.67
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.8%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.70
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin win✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied 22.0% · @ 4.08
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SpartansSpartans

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W20W03L21W10W11D11D30W12L20WH·ANN28/02H·STI03/03A·DUM07/03H·CLY14/03H·FOR17/03A·FOR21/03H·EAS28/03A·EDI04/04H·STR11/04A·ANN18/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.031.270.801.871.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)2.291.141.500.753.331.67
vs Weaker (23)1.351.001.180.821.501.17
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W03L12L11D30W20W20W12L03L22DA·STR28/02A·EAS07/03A·ANN10/03H·DUM14/03A·EDI21/03H·FOR24/03H·CLY28/03A·FOR04/04H·ANN11/04A·STI18/04
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.571.811.441.501.71
vs Stronger (1)3.001.00--3.001.00
vs Similar (7)1.142.862.003.250.002.33
vs Weaker (22)1.771.181.750.831.801.60
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.1%
Under 1.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.8%
@ 1.63-12.6%
Under 2.5
56.2%
@ 2.11+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.8%
Under 3.5
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.8%
No
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.7%
1-0
11.7%
0-0
10.0%
2-0
9.5%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
7.2%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
4.7%
Spartans goals ↓
Elgin goals →
01234
010%7.2%4.0%1.3%0.3%
112%14%5.9%1.9%0.5%
29.5%9.1%4.4%1.4%0.3%
34.7%4.5%2.2%0.7%0.2%
41.7%1.7%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartans goals (down), columns = Elgin goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Spartans is 0.56 points better than Elgin in terms of average points per game (1.78 vs 1.22).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Spartans is 0.25 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.42).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Spartans is 0.44 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.53).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

SpartansSpartans

For 6.2 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.2

🚩 Corners

1608367115646257437444511113161081271186A·ANNH·STRA·EDIH·EASA·FORH·FORH·CLYA·DUMH·STIH·ANN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.0

🟨 Cards

802114224111244121433544238353A·ANNH·STRA·EDIH·EASA·FORH·FORH·CLYA·DUMH·STIH·ANN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 9.8 · Total 20.2

⚠️ Fouls

24011136131041591010101413895711131124191424202421141824A·ANNH·STRA·EDIH·EASA·FORH·FORH·CLYA·DUMH·STIH·ANN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ElginElgin

For 4.3 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.7

🚩 Corners

1303452464951336733446577101366136811A·STIH·ANNA·FORH·CLYH·FORA·EDIH·DUMA·ANNA·EASA·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7

🟨 Cards

60113324221224112121112664362332A·STIH·ANNA·FORH·CLYH·FORA·EDIH·DUMA·ANNA·EASA·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 10.4 · Total 22.9

⚠️ Fouls

3509815917181010169151259109167121317243520252714192325A·STIH·ANNA·FORH·CLYH·FORA·EDIH·DUMA·ANNA·EASA·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

SpartansSpartans

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.08.79.23.53.43.519.920.819.1
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (15)7.57.27.63.01.83.622.323.521.6
vs Weaker (35)9.59.110.03.73.93.519.120.117.9
% over line40%38%43%54%52%56%36%43%29%
% under line60%62%57%46%48%44%64%57%71%
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.510.110.83.53.83.122.422.022.7
vs Stronger (1)---0.0-0.0---
vs Similar (16)9.29.88.72.73.02.321.922.821.2
vs Weaker (33)10.910.211.74.04.33.622.521.823.3
% over line62%57%67%48%62%33%57%52%62%
% under line38%43%33%52%38%67%43%48%38%
This opponent (Spartans) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.8
East Kilbride
10.6
Dumbarton
10.5
Elgin
10.3
Stranraer
10.1
Annan Athletic
9.8
Clyde
9.6
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.1
Forfar
8.9

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.2
Forfar
4.5
Clyde
4.4
Elgin
4.3
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.2
Stirling
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.1
Dumbarton
3.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
26.6
Forfar
24.3
Edinburgh City
24.1
Elgin
22.4
Clyde
22.3
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.1
Stirling
20.8
Dumbarton
20.3
Spartans
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.8%
Under 9.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.4%
Under 3.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
53.8%
Under 21.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SpartansSpartans

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W10W00D00D10W11D00D00D11D10WH·ANN28/02H·STI03/03A·DUM07/03H·CLY14/03H·FOR17/03A·FOR21/03H·EAS28/03A·EDI04/04H·STR11/04A·ANN18/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.530.530.400.870.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.860.570.500.251.331.00
vs Weaker (23)0.650.520.550.450.750.58
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D02L01L10W20W00D10W12L01L21WA·STR28/02A·EAS07/03A·ANN10/03H·DUM14/03A·EDI21/03H·FOR24/03H·CLY28/03A·FOR04/04H·ANN11/04A·STI18/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.800.690.560.571.07
vs Stronger (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Similar (7)0.571.431.001.250.001.67
vs Weaker (22)0.640.590.580.330.700.90
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartans over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SpartansSpartans

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W10W03L21W00D00D11D30W01L10WH·ANN28/02H·STI03/03A·DUM07/03H·CLY14/03H·FOR17/03A·FOR21/03H·EAS28/03A·EDI04/04H·STR11/04A·ANN18/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.500.730.401.000.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.430.571.000.502.000.67
vs Weaker (23)0.700.480.640.360.750.58
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L11D01L10W20W10W00D02L01LA·STR28/02A·EAS07/03A·ANN10/03H·DUM14/03A·EDI21/03H·FOR24/03H·CLY28/03A·FOR04/04H·ANN11/04A·STI18/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.771.120.880.930.64
vs Stronger (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
vs Similar (7)0.571.431.002.000.000.67
vs Weaker (22)1.140.591.170.501.100.70
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartans over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards80.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.577.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls76.9%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards74.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners72.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.571.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls70.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
SPA wins
3
Draws
2
ELG wins

Head-to-head

Spartans vs Elgin · H/A from SPA
DateH/AGameScore
31/01/26AElgin Vs SPA3-3
20/12/25HSPA Vs Elgin1-0
27/09/25AElgin Vs SPA2-3
22/03/25HSPA Vs Elgin1-2
11/03/25AElgin Vs SPA0-2
19/10/24HSPA Vs Elgin1-3
17/09/24AElgin Vs SPA1-1
06/04/24AElgin Vs SPA2-2

SpartansSpartans

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26AAnnan Athletic Vs SPA0-2
11/04/26HSPA Vs Stranraer1-2
04/04/26AEdinburgh City Vs SPA0-3
28/03/26HSPA Vs East Kilbride1-1
21/03/26AForfar Vs SPA1-1
17/03/26HSPA Vs Forfar1-0
14/03/26HSPA Vs Clyde2-1
07/03/26ADumbarton Vs SPA3-0
03/03/26HSPA Vs Stirling2-0
28/02/26HSPA Vs Annan Athletic4-0

ElginElgin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26AStirling Vs ELG2-2
11/04/26HELG Vs Annan Athletic0-3
04/04/26AForfar Vs ELG2-1
28/03/26HELG Vs Clyde2-0
24/03/26HELG Vs Forfar2-0
21/03/26AEdinburgh City Vs ELG0-3
14/03/26HELG Vs Dumbarton1-1
10/03/26AAnnan Athletic Vs ELG2-1
07/03/26AEast Kilbride Vs ELG3-0
28/02/26AStranraer Vs ELG1-2

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Spartans
Spartans
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWLW1.74
HomeWWWDL1.96
AwayLLDWW1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%60%44%
AVG goals2.722.283.16
Over 1.5 %82%72%92%
Over 2.5 %56%48%64%
Over 3.5 %24%16%32%
Scored1.581.401.76
Conceded1.140.881.40
BTTS56%48%64%
Clean Sheet32%44%20%
Corners8.958.719.19
Cards4.144.104.19
Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLD1.34
HomeWDWWL1.62
AwayLLWLD1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%50%25%
AVG goals3.223.423.00
Over 1.5 %90%92%88%
Over 2.5 %60%62%58%
Over 3.5 %32%35%29%
Scored1.501.811.17
Conceded1.721.621.83
BTTS54%50%58%
Clean Sheet26%38%12%
Corners10.4510.1010.81
Cards4.144.763.52

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1East KilbrideEast Kilbride3669
58%
1.9
7746+31
3.4
92%
69%
50%
10.4
58%
5.6
83%
26.4
81%
0
0002.11.3
-
2SpartansSpartans3664
50%
1.8
6039+21
2.8
83%
53%
28%
9.4
47%
4.0
58%
19.9
33%
0
0001.71.1
-
3ClydeClyde3656
39%
1.6
5841+17
2.8
83%
53%
33%
9.8
42%
4.1
61%
21.4
44%
0
0001.61.1
-
4ForfarForfar3650
36%
1.4
5147+4
2.7
72%
50%
36%
9.2
50%
4.1
58%
23.8
67%
0
0001.41.3
-
5StranraerStranraer3647
33%
1.3
4646+0
2.6
78%
50%
28%
11.0
63%
4.3
66%
22.5
57%
0
0001.31.3
-
6ElginElgin3644
31%
1.2
5155-4
2.9
86%
56%
25%
10.5
60%
4.2
60%
22.8
60%
0
0001.41.5
-
7Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3641
28%
1.1
4758-11
2.9
78%
56%
36%
9.9
50%
4.4
64%
23.8
72%
0
0001.31.6
-
8DumbartonDumbarton3640
28%
1.1
4761-14
3.0
92%
58%
28%
10.6
54%
3.5
46%
20.8
46%
0
0001.31.7
-
9Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3639
28%
1.1
4572-27
3.2
86%
69%
44%
9.5
51%
5.2
80%
23.8
66%
0
0001.22.0
-
10StirlingStirling3638
25%
1.1
4663-17
3.0
83%
58%
36%
11.4
58%
4.1
58%
20.7
36%
0
0001.31.8
-
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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