Spartans are the favoured side, with a 48% chance of victory, a 29% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of an Elgin win. The model predicts an average of 2.4 goals, most likely a 2-goal total with a 27% probability. The single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, which carries a 13.7% chance. Spartans, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 1.5 goals scored and only 0.75 conceded, while Elgin, on the road, averages no goals scored and 2.33 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 80.3%, Under 3.5 goals at 77.2%, Under 25.5 fouls at 76.9% (miss), Over 2.5 cards at 74.5%, Under 11.5 corners at 72.7%, Over 1.5 goals at 71.1% and Over 19.5 fouls at 70.2%. The match is set to be a tight encounter, with Spartans’ recent draw against Elgin hinting at a balanced contest.
Results analysis
The match finished 1-1, a draw that left the pre-match favourite - a home win - disappointed. The model had given the Spartans a 48% chance to triumph, yet the result was a stalemate. The Spartans, coming off a 3-3 draw in their last outing, were expected to extend their recent form, but Elgin held them to a level scoreline. The model’s selection for the total goals was 2.4, with 27% probability for a 2-goal outcome, but the match produced only two goals, matching the most likely score of 1-1. Among the suggested picks, Under 5.5 cards hit with an 80.3% probability, Under 3.5 hit at 77.2%, Under 25.5 fouls missed at 76.9%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 74.5%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 72.7%, Over 1.5 hit at 71.1%, and Over 19.5 fouls hit at 70.2%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartans win✗ Miss
47.9%
Avg Implied 53.7% · @ 1.67
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.8%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.70
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin win✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied 22.0% · @ 4.08
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartans
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.03
1.27
0.80
1.87
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
2.29
1.14
1.50
0.75
3.33
1.67
vs Weaker (23)
1.35
1.00
1.18
0.82
1.50
1.17
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.57
1.81
1.44
1.50
1.71
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (7)
1.14
2.86
2.00
3.25
0.00
2.33
vs Weaker (22)
1.77
1.18
1.75
0.83
1.80
1.60
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.1%
Under 1.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.8%
@ 1.63-12.6%
Under 2.5
56.2%
@ 2.11+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.8%
Under 3.5
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.8%
No
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.7%
1-0
11.7%
0-0
10.0%
2-0
9.5%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
7.2%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
4.7%
Spartans goals ↓
Elgin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
7.2%
4.0%
1.3%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
5.9%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.5%
9.1%
4.4%
1.4%
0.3%
3
4.7%
4.5%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.7%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartans goals (down), columns = Elgin goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Spartans is 0.56 points better than Elgin in terms of average points per game (1.78 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Spartans is 0.25 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Spartans is 0.44 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spartans
For 6.2 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 9.8 · Total 20.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elgin
For 4.3 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 10.4 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartans
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.7
9.2
3.5
3.4
3.5
19.9
20.8
19.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
7.5
7.2
7.6
3.0
1.8
3.6
22.3
23.5
21.6
vs Weaker (35)
9.5
9.1
10.0
3.7
3.9
3.5
19.1
20.1
17.9
% over line
40%
38%
43%
54%
52%
56%
36%
43%
29%
% under line
60%
62%
57%
46%
48%
44%
64%
57%
71%
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.1
10.8
3.5
3.8
3.1
22.4
22.0
22.7
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
9.2
9.8
8.7
2.7
3.0
2.3
21.9
22.8
21.2
vs Weaker (33)
10.9
10.2
11.7
4.0
4.3
3.6
22.5
21.8
23.3
% over line
62%
57%
67%
48%
62%
33%
57%
52%
62%
% under line
38%
43%
33%
52%
38%
67%
43%
48%
38%
This opponent (Spartans) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.8
East Kilbride
10.6
Dumbarton
10.5
Elgin
10.3
Stranraer
10.1
Annan Athletic
9.8
Clyde
9.6
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.1
Forfar
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.2
Forfar
4.5
Clyde
4.4
Elgin
4.3
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.2
Stirling
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.1
Dumbarton
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
26.6
Forfar
24.3
Edinburgh City
24.1
Elgin
22.4
Clyde
22.3
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.1
Stirling
20.8
Dumbarton
20.3
Spartans
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.8%
Under 9.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.4%
Under 3.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
53.8%
Under 21.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spartans
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.53
0.40
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.57
0.50
0.25
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
0.65
0.52
0.55
0.45
0.75
0.58
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.69
0.56
0.57
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.57
1.43
1.00
1.25
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (22)
0.64
0.59
0.58
0.33
0.70
0.90
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartans over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartans
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.50
0.73
0.40
1.00
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.43
0.57
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.67
vs Weaker (23)
0.70
0.48
0.64
0.36
0.75
0.58
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.77
1.12
0.88
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (7)
0.57
1.43
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (22)
1.14
0.59
1.17
0.50
1.10
0.70
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartans over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →