Spartans are tipped to win at home, with a 45 % chance of victory, 29 % for a draw and 26 % for Forfar. The match is expected to see 2.5 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals (27 % probability). The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.7 % chance. Spartans, playing against a weaker side, average 1.55 goals scored and 1.0 conceded at home, while Forfar, facing a stronger opponent away, average 0.5 scored and 2.83 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Under 6.5 (98.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.8 %), Under 5.5 (95.8 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.0 %), Away under 2.5 goals (91.1 %), Home +2 handicap (89.8 %) and Under 4.5 (89.1 %). Spartans are coming off a draw in a 3-3 stalemate with Elgin, whereas Forfar are leaving a 0-3 loss to Clyde. The overall shape points to a tight contest with Spartans likely to edge it.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartans win
44.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Forfar win
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartans
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.43
1.53
1.27
1.73
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
2.12
1.75
1.67
1.67
2.40
1.80
vs Weaker (22)
1.45
1.32
1.50
1.17
1.40
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.47
1.80
1.13
0.80
1.80
vs Stronger (14)
1.14
2.07
1.62
1.50
0.50
2.83
vs Similar (13)
1.62
0.77
2.17
0.67
1.14
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.8%
Under 2.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.0%
Under 3.5
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
8.4%
2-0
8.2%
0-1
6.9%
1-2
6.8%
2-2
5.1%
Spartans goals ↓
Forfar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
6.9%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
1
9.7%
13%
6.8%
2.6%
0.7%
2
8.2%
9.2%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
3
4.1%
4.6%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.6%
1.7%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartans goals (down), columns = Forfar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Elgin
2.20
Clyde
2.00
Forfar
1.60
Edinburgh City
1.60
Stranraer
1.40
Spartans
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Kelty Hearts
1.20
Stirling
0.80
Dumbarton
0.60
Spartans is 0.40 points worse than Forfar in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Elgin
3.40
Spartans
2.40
Clyde
2.20
Edinburgh City
1.40
Kelty Hearts
1.40
Forfar
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Stirling
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Dumbarton
0.40
Spartans is 1.20 goals better than Forfar in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Forfar
1.00
Elgin
1.00
Clyde
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.40
Edinburgh City
1.60
Dumbarton
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Spartans
2.20
Stirling
2.40
Spartans is 1.20 goals worse than Forfar in terms of goals conceded per game (2.20 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spartans
For 6.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 10.6 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
For 4.2 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 12.8 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartans
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.7
10.0
2.7
2.8
2.6
19.7
21.7
17.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
8.0
7.5
8.5
2.2
2.0
2.5
22.5
26.5
18.5
vs Weaker (38)
9.8
9.1
10.4
2.9
3.1
2.6
18.9
20.2
17.6
% over line
46%
35%
56%
38%
40%
36%
29%
47%
11%
% under line
54%
65%
44%
62%
60%
64%
71%
53%
89%
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.8
8.6
3.0
3.1
3.0
23.8
23.4
24.3
vs Stronger (21)
9.5
10.1
8.8
2.9
3.3
2.5
24.9
23.1
27.0
vs Similar (24)
8.8
9.5
8.1
3.0
2.8
3.2
23.6
24.0
23.2
vs Weaker (5)
10.5
10.5
10.5
4.0
4.5
3.7
21.2
21.0
21.5
% over line
51%
58%
44%
44%
48%
40%
68%
63%
72%
% under line
49%
42%
56%
56%
52%
60%
32%
37%
28%
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.9
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Forfar
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dumbarton
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Clyde
21.7
Stirling
21.1
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.5%
Under 9.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
57.9%
Under 3.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
59.1%
Under 21.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Spartans or Draw
73.0%
Avg Implied -
45%
28%
27%
covers Spartans + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartans or Forfar
71.9%
Avg Implied -
45%
28%
27%
covers Spartans + Forfar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Forfar
55.1%
Avg Implied -
45%
28%
27%
covers Draw + Forfar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Spartans over/under 0.5
Over
77.8%
Under
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5
Over
44.5%
Under
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 3.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5
Over
67.4%
Under
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5
Over
30.8%
Under
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Spartans, so a minus line means Spartans give that many goals of a start and Forfar receive them. At -1, Spartans must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Spartans win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Spartans)
Spartans -2
9.2%
Draw -2
13.9%
Forfar +2
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Spartans)
Spartans -1
23.1%
Draw -1
21.9%
Forfar +1
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Spartans)
Spartans +1
73.0%
Draw +1
15.9%
Forfar -1
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Spartans)
Spartans +2
88.9%
Draw +2
7.7%
Forfar -2
3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spartans
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.50
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.75
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (22)
0.36
0.41
0.50
0.42
0.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
1.00
0.53
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
1.07
1.12
0.88
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.15
1.00
0.17
0.86
0.14
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.7%
Under 0.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.4%
Under 1.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.8%
Under 2.5
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartans over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.1%
Under
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.0%
Under
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartans
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.93
1.07
0.80
1.27
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.09
0.91
1.00
0.75
1.20
1.10
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.83
0.80
0.60
0.27
1.07
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.00
0.50
0.62
0.33
1.50
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.62
1.17
0.50
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.8%
Under 0.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.1%
Under 1.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.2%
Under 2.5
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartans over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.2%
Under
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.0%
Under
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.8%
Under
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
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Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
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Elgin
Clyde
Edinburgh City
Stranraer
Annan Athletic
Kelty Hearts
Stirling
Dumbarton