Spartans are tipped to edge Kelty Hearts, with a 48% chance of victory, a 27% draw probability and 25% for the away side. The match is expected to see 2.8 goals on average, but the most likely total is two goals, with a 25% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 12.8% probability. Spartans, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, average 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded; Kelty Hearts, on the road, average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Under 6.5 (97.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Under 5.5 (93.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.6%), Home +2 handicap (89.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.3%) and Under 4.5 (85.2%). Spartans have just drawn 3-3 with Clyde, while Kelty Hearts return from a 0-2 loss to Stranraer. The data points to a closely contested game with Spartans slightly ahead.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartans win
47.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts win
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartans
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.43
1.53
1.27
1.73
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
2.12
1.75
1.67
1.67
2.40
1.80
vs Weaker (22)
1.45
1.32
1.50
1.17
1.40
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.57
1.14
1.43
0.81
1.69
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (20)
1.10
1.60
1.00
1.50
1.20
1.70
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
1.33
1.50
1.25
0.20
1.40
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.5%
Under 1.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.3%
Under 2.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.1%
Under 3.5
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.8%
No
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
9.1%
2-0
8.4%
0-0
7.4%
1-2
6.6%
0-1
5.9%
2-2
5.4%
Spartans goals ↓
Kelty Hearts goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
5.9%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
1
9.1%
13%
6.6%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.4%
9.5%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.6%
5.2%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.9%
2.1%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartans goals (down), columns = Kelty Hearts goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Elgin
2.20
Clyde
2.00
Forfar
1.60
Edinburgh City
1.60
Stranraer
1.40
Spartans
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Kelty Hearts
1.20
Stirling
0.80
Dumbarton
0.60
Spartans and Kelty Hearts are level in average points per game (both 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Elgin
3.40
Spartans
2.40
Clyde
2.20
Edinburgh City
1.40
Kelty Hearts
1.40
Forfar
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Stirling
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Dumbarton
0.40
Spartans is 1.00 goals better than Kelty Hearts in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Forfar
1.00
Elgin
1.00
Clyde
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.40
Edinburgh City
1.60
Dumbarton
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Spartans
2.20
Stirling
2.40
Spartans is 0.20 goals worse than Kelty Hearts in terms of goals conceded per game (2.20 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spartans
For 6.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 10.6 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kelty Hearts
For 5.1 · Against 6.6 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 14.5 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartans
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.1
9.7
2.5
2.6
2.5
19.6
21.3
18.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
8.0
7.5
8.5
2.2
2.0
2.5
22.5
26.5
18.5
vs Weaker (38)
9.8
9.6
10.1
2.6
2.7
2.5
18.7
19.6
17.9
% over line
45%
38%
53%
36%
36%
36%
27%
44%
12%
% under line
55%
62%
47%
64%
64%
64%
73%
56%
88%
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.9
9.9
3.4
3.1
3.7
23.8
23.3
24.2
vs Stronger (1)
13.0
-
13.0
2.0
-
2.0
24.0
-
24.0
vs Similar (33)
9.4
9.4
9.5
4.0
3.5
4.5
23.5
23.1
23.9
vs Weaker (16)
9.1
7.5
10.8
2.2
2.2
2.2
24.8
24.2
25.2
% over line
43%
44%
42%
54%
52%
56%
62%
50%
74%
% under line
57%
56%
58%
46%
48%
44%
38%
50%
26%
This opponent (Spartans) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.9
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Forfar
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dumbarton
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Clyde
21.7
Stirling
21.1
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
53.4%
Under 9.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.3%
Under 3.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
66.3%
Under 21.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Spartans or Draw
74.7%
Avg Implied -
48%
27%
25%
covers Spartans + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartans or Kelty Hearts
73.1%
Avg Implied -
48%
27%
25%
covers Spartans + Kelty Hearts
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kelty Hearts
52.2%
Avg Implied -
48%
27%
25%
covers Draw + Kelty Hearts
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Spartans over/under 0.5
Over
80.5%
Under
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5
Over
48.6%
Under
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5
Over
22.6%
Under
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 3.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5
Over
67.9%
Under
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5
Over
31.4%
Under
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Spartans, so a minus line means Spartans give that many goals of a start and Kelty Hearts receive them. At -1, Spartans must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Spartans win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Spartans)
Spartans -2
10.9%
Draw -2
14.9%
Kelty Hearts +2
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Spartans)
Spartans -1
25.8%
Draw -1
22.0%
Kelty Hearts +1
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Spartans)
Spartans +1
74.7%
Draw +1
14.9%
Kelty Hearts -1
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Spartans)
Spartans +2
89.6%
Draw +2
7.2%
Kelty Hearts -2
3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spartans
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.50
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.75
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (22)
0.36
0.41
0.50
0.42
0.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.43
0.64
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.50
0.20
0.60
0.50
0.40
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.89
1.00
0.75
0.20
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartans over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartans
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.93
1.07
0.80
1.27
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.09
0.91
1.00
0.75
1.20
1.10
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.71
0.79
0.44
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.75
1.10
0.80
0.90
0.70
1.30
vs Weaker (9)
0.22
0.44
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartans over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
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Elgin
Clyde
Forfar
Edinburgh City
Stranraer
Annan Athletic
Stirling
Dumbarton