Spartans are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model favouring a win and a 51% chance of victory, 25% for a draw and 23% for Stranraer. The match is expected to see a total of three goals, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 11.8%. Spartans, playing against a weaker side, average 1.5 goals scored and 1.17 conceded at home, while Stranraer, facing a stronger opponent, average 1.25 scored and 1.62 conceded on the road. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 98.9%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.9%, Under 6.5 at 96.8%, Under 5.5 at 91.9%, Home +2 handicap at 90.4%, Home under 3.5 goals at 89.0%, Away under 2.5 goals at 88.7%, and Home over 0.5 goals at 83.6%. Spartans are coming off a draw, while Stranraer arrive on a win, adding extra weight to the home side’s advantage.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartans win
51.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stranraer win
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartans
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.43
1.53
1.27
1.73
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
2.12
1.75
1.67
1.67
2.40
1.80
vs Weaker (22)
1.45
1.32
1.50
1.17
1.40
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.40
1.12
1.06
1.21
1.79
vs Stronger (19)
1.16
1.32
1.09
1.09
1.25
1.62
vs Similar (11)
1.18
1.55
1.20
1.00
1.17
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.7%
Under 1.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.1%
Under 2.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.7%
Under 3.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.6%
No
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.4%
1-0
8.2%
1-2
6.3%
0-0
6.2%
3-1
5.9%
2-2
5.7%
Spartans goals ↓
Stranraer goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
4.9%
3.5%
1.3%
0.4%
1
8.2%
12%
6.3%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.4%
9.7%
5.7%
2.2%
0.6%
3
5.1%
5.9%
3.4%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.3%
2.7%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartans goals (down), columns = Stranraer goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Elgin
2.20
Clyde
2.00
Forfar
1.60
Edinburgh City
1.60
Stranraer
1.40
Spartans
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Kelty Hearts
1.20
Stirling
0.80
Dumbarton
0.60
Spartans is 0.20 points worse than Stranraer in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Elgin
3.40
Spartans
2.40
Clyde
2.20
Edinburgh City
1.40
Kelty Hearts
1.40
Forfar
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Stirling
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Dumbarton
0.40
Spartans is 1.20 goals better than Stranraer in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Forfar
1.00
Elgin
1.00
Clyde
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.40
Edinburgh City
1.60
Dumbarton
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Spartans
2.20
Stirling
2.40
Spartans is 1.00 goals worse than Stranraer in terms of goals conceded per game (2.20 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spartans
For 6.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 10.6 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
For 7.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 11.7 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartans
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.1
9.6
2.4
2.4
2.3
19.9
21.6
18.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
8.0
7.5
8.5
2.1
1.7
2.5
22.5
26.5
18.5
vs Weaker (37)
9.8
9.6
10.0
2.5
2.7
2.3
19.0
19.8
18.2
% over line
45%
40%
50%
32%
32%
32%
29%
47%
12%
% under line
55%
60%
50%
68%
68%
68%
71%
53%
88%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
11.0
11.6
2.6
2.4
2.9
21.9
22.1
21.7
vs Stronger (32)
11.3
10.7
12.0
2.4
1.9
3.1
22.7
22.9
22.4
vs Similar (18)
11.3
11.4
11.1
3.1
3.5
2.7
20.9
21.1
20.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
69%
75%
62%
40%
35%
46%
53%
50%
56%
% under line
31%
25%
38%
60%
65%
54%
47%
50%
44%
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.9
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Forfar
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dumbarton
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Clyde
21.7
Stirling
21.1
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
53.7%
Under 9.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.2%
Under 3.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
54.4%
Under 21.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Spartans or Draw
76.7%
Avg Implied -
51%
25%
23%
covers Spartans + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartans or Stranraer
74.8%
Avg Implied -
51%
25%
23%
covers Spartans + Stranraer
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Stranraer
48.6%
Avg Implied -
51%
25%
23%
covers Draw + Stranraer
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Spartans over/under 0.5
Over
83.6%
Under
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5
Over
54.0%
Under
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5
Over
27.2%
Under
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 3.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5
Over
68.8%
Under
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5
Over
32.4%
Under
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Spartans, so a minus line means Spartans give that many goals of a start and Stranraer receive them. At -1, Spartans must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Spartans win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Spartans)
Spartans -2
13.4%
Draw -2
16.0%
Stranraer +2
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Spartans)
Spartans -1
29.4%
Draw -1
22.0%
Stranraer +1
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Spartans)
Spartans +1
76.7%
Draw +1
13.8%
Stranraer -1
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Spartans)
Spartans +2
90.4%
Draw +2
6.6%
Stranraer -2
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spartans
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.50
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.75
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (22)
0.36
0.41
0.50
0.42
0.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.50
0.56
0.79
1.07
vs Stronger (19)
0.68
0.74
0.55
0.55
0.88
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.91
0.40
0.60
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartans over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartans
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.93
1.07
0.80
1.27
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.09
0.91
1.00
0.75
1.20
1.10
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.62
0.50
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
0.58
0.55
0.55
0.38
0.62
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.64
0.80
0.40
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartans over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
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Elgin
Clyde
Forfar
Edinburgh City
Annan Athletic
Kelty Hearts
Stirling
Dumbarton