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Speranța Drochia vs FCM Ungheni Result & Analysis

Date: 24/08/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
Speranța Drochia
Speranța Drochia
Vs
55%
22%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FCM Ungheni
FCM Ungheni
Moldova: Liga 1
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Speranța Drochia win✓ Hit
55.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni win✗ Miss
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Speranța DrochiaSperanța Drochia

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-703L12L01L03L15L07L12L12L42W50WH·GAG06/04A·SPA13/04A·SAX16/04H·FLO20/04A·VIC27/04A·GAG03/05H·SPA08/05A·GAG11/05H·FC 10/08A·ISK17/08← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.730.931.431.002.00
vs Stronger (18)1.001.831.001.401.002.38
vs Similar (9)1.111.441.001.001.171.67
vs Weaker (3)0.332.000.003.000.501.50
Clean sheet %23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W16L21W30W03L22D22D23L11D23LH·REA08/03A·SHE15/03H·ISK29/03H·DIN05/04A·OLI13/04H·SPE19/04A·FĂL26/04A·SPE04/05A·ISK10/08A·VIC16/08← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.562.041.541.381.572.64
vs Stronger (25)1.642.121.581.501.692.69
vs Similar (2)0.501.001.000.000.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %19% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Speranța Drochia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%119%222%319%413%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
87.5%
Under 1.5
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
68.4%
Under 2.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.9%
Under 3.5
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.6%
No
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.5%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
7.0%
3-1
6.8%
2-2
6.4%
1-2
5.9%
1-0 ✓
5.5%
3-0
5.0%
Speranța Drochia goals ↓
FCM Ungheni goals →
01234
03.8%3.1%2.7%1.2%0.4%
15.5%9.5%5.9%2.6%0.9%
27.0%9.4%6.4%2.9%1.0%
35.0%6.8%4.6%2.1%0.7%
42.7%3.7%2.5%1.1%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Speranța Drochia goals (down), columns = FCM Ungheni goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sheriff II
2.68
Victoria Bardar
2.27
Saxan
1.94
FC Stăuceni
1.73
FCM Ungheni
1.41
Făleşti
1.40
Iskra
1.36
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.27
Speranis Nisporeni
1.18
Olimp Comrat
1.14
Speranța Drochia
0.68
Vulturii Cutezători
0.50
Floreşti
0.00
Speranța Drochia is 0.73 points worse than FCM Ungheni in terms of average points per game (0.68 vs 1.41).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Victoria Bardar
3.40
Saxan
3.12
Sheriff II
2.95
FC Stăuceni
2.33
FCM Ungheni
2.14
Olimp Comrat
1.86
Iskra
1.55
Speranța Drochia
1.45
Făleşti
1.40
Speranis Nisporeni
1.32
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.32
Vulturii Cutezători
1.05
Floreşti
0.00
Speranța Drochia is 0.68 goals worse than FCM Ungheni in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 2.14).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff II
0.59
Saxan
1.12
Speranis Nisporeni
1.27
Victoria Bardar
1.40
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.45
FC Stăuceni
1.67
Iskra
1.82
Făleşti
2.07
FCM Ungheni
2.23
Speranța Drochia
2.59
Vulturii Cutezători
2.73
Olimp Comrat
2.91
Floreşti
19.00
Speranța Drochia is 0.36 goals worse than FCM Ungheni in terms of goals conceded per game (2.59 vs 2.23).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Speranța DrochiaSperanța Drochia

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W01L12L00D03L03L01L01LH·SAX08/03H·VIC30/03H·GAG06/04A·SPA13/04A·SAX16/04H·FLO20/04A·VIC27/04A·GAG03/05H·SPA08/05← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.221.330.201.200.251.50
vs Stronger (6)0.171.000.330.670.001.33
vs Similar (2)0.501.500.001.001.002.00
vs Weaker (1)0.003.000.003.00--
Clean sheet %22% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321WA·VIC16/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.00--2.001.00
vs Stronger (1)2.001.00--2.001.00
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Speranța Drochia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Speranța Drochia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Speranța Drochia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Speranța Drochia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Speranța DrochiaSperanța Drochia

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L01L02L00D01L00D12L06L11DH·SAX08/03H·VIC30/03H·GAG06/04A·SPA13/04A·SAX16/04H·FLO20/04A·VIC27/04A·GAG03/05H·SPA08/05← Super LigaLiga 1 →
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.221.560.201.000.252.25
vs Stronger (6)0.172.170.001.330.333.00
vs Similar (2)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %22% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202LA·VIC16/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.002.00--0.002.00
vs Stronger (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Speranța Drochia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Speranța Drochia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Speranța Drochia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Speranța Drochia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FU (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FU (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
SD wins
0
Draws
0
FU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Speranța Drochia vs FCM Ungheni · H/A from SD
DateH/AGameScore
28/04/23AFCM Ungheni Vs SD0-1

Speranța DrochiaSperanța Drochia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/08/24AIskra Vs SD0-5
10/08/24HSD Vs FC Stăuceni4-2
11/05/24AGagauziya-Oguzsport Vs SD2-1
08/05/24HSD Vs Spartanii Selemet1-2
03/05/24AGagauziya-Oguzsport Vs SD7-0
27/04/24AVictoria Bardar Vs SD5-1
20/04/24HSD Vs Floreşti0-3
16/04/24ASaxan Vs SD1-0
13/04/24ASpartanii Selemet Vs SD2-1
06/04/24HSD Vs Gagauziya-Oguzsport0-3

FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/08/24AVictoria Bardar Vs FU3-2
10/08/24AIskra Vs FU1-1
04/05/24ASperanis Nisporeni Vs FU3-2
26/04/24AFăleşti Vs FU2-2
19/04/24HFU Vs Speranis Nisporeni2-2
13/04/24AOlimp Comrat Vs FU3-0
05/04/24HFU Vs Dinamo-Auto3-0
29/03/24HFU Vs Iskra2-1
15/03/24ASheriff II Vs FU6-1
08/03/24HFU Vs Real Succes2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Speranța Drochia
Speranța Drochia
Moldova: Liga 1
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWW1.11
HomeDLLLW1.32
AwayLLLLW0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%36%29%
AVG goals2.872.553.17
Over 1.5 %76%77%75%
Over 2.5 %67%59%75%
Over 3.5 %24%18%29%
Scored1.131.141.12
Conceded1.741.412.04
BTTS52%50%54%
Clean Sheet17%23%12%
Corners---
Cards---
FCM Ungheni
FCM Ungheni
Moldova: Liga 1
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLDL1.15
HomeLWWWD1.54
AwayLDLDL0.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%46%21%
AVG goals3.592.924.21
Over 1.5 %89%77%100%
Over 2.5 %74%62%86%
Over 3.5 %44%31%57%
Scored1.561.541.57
Conceded2.041.382.64
BTTS52%38%64%
Clean Sheet19%23%14%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sheriff IISheriff II2259
86%
2.7
6513+52
3.5
82%
59%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.00.6
-
2Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar1534
73%
2.3
5121+30
4.8
87%
87%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.41.4
-
3SaxanSaxan1631
56%
1.9
5018+32
4.2
100%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.11.1
-
4FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni2231
41%
1.4
4749-2
4.4
91%
82%
68%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.2
-
5IskraIskra2230
36%
1.4
3440-6
3.4
77%
55%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
6Gagauziya-OguzsportGagauziya-Oguzsport2228
32%
1.3
2932-3
2.8
82%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
-
7FC StăuceniFC Stăuceni1526
53%
1.7
3525+10
4.0
93%
67%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.7
-
8Speranis NisporeniSperanis Nisporeni2226
32%
1.2
2928+1
2.6
77%
50%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
9Olimp ComratOlimp Comrat2225
32%
1.1
4164-23
4.8
95%
91%
68%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.92.9
-
10FăleştiFăleşti1521
47%
1.4
2131-10
3.5
100%
67%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.1
-
11Speranța DrochiaSperanța Drochia2215
18%
0.7
3257-25
4.0
91%
73%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.6
-
12Vulturii CutezătoriVulturii Cutezători2211
14%
0.5
2360-37
3.8
82%
64%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
13FloreştiFloreşti10
0%
0.0
019-19
19.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.019.0
-
Moldova: Liga 1 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →

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