This opponent (Brescia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brescia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.33
1.40
1.40
0.80
1.27
vs Stronger (14)
1.29
1.71
2.00
1.71
0.57
1.71
vs Similar (16)
0.94
1.00
0.88
1.12
1.00
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Spezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.6%
Under 1.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.3%
@ 1.98-4.1%
Under 2.5
56.7%
@ 1.79+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.4%
Under 3.5
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.5%
No
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0
12.8%
2-0
10.9%
0-0
10.2%
2-1
9.3%
0-1 ✓
6.4%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
5.1%
Spezia goals ↓
Brescia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
6.4%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
5.1%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.3%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
3
5.7%
4.8%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.2%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spezia goals (down), columns = Brescia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sassuolo
2.16
Pisa
1.95
Spezia
1.74
Cremonese
1.62
Juve Stabia
1.49
Catanzaro
1.37
Cesena
1.36
Palermo
1.33
Bari
1.26
Sudtirol
1.21
Modena
1.18
Carrarese
1.18
Reggiana
1.16
Mantova
1.16
Brescia
1.13
Frosinone
1.13
Sampdoria
1.13
Salernitana
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Cosenza
0.89
Spezia is 0.61 points better than Brescia in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sassuolo
2.05
Cremonese
1.64
Pisa
1.63
Spezia
1.55
Palermo
1.33
Sudtirol
1.32
Catanzaro
1.29
Modena
1.26
Mantova
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Brescia
1.11
Reggiana
1.11
Juve Stabia
1.10
Bari
1.08
Carrarese
1.03
Sampdoria
1.03
Frosinone
0.97
Salernitana
0.95
Cosenza
0.84
Cittadella
0.82
Spezia is 0.44 goals better than Brescia in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spezia
0.88
Pisa
0.97
Sassuolo
1.00
Bari
1.05
Juve Stabia
1.10
Palermo
1.13
Cremonese
1.14
Catanzaro
1.20
Cesena
1.23
Salernitana
1.26
Sampdoria
1.26
Brescia
1.26
Carrarese
1.29
Frosinone
1.32
Modena
1.32
Reggiana
1.37
Cittadella
1.42
Cosenza
1.47
Mantova
1.47
Sudtirol
1.50
Spezia is 0.38 goals better than Brescia in terms of goals conceded per game (0.88 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Mantova
62%
Cremonese
60%
Catanzaro
55%
Sassuolo
52%
Salernitana
52%
Juve Stabia
52%
Bari
51%
Spezia
50%
Palermo
49%
Carrarese
49%
Cosenza
49%
Cesena
49%
Modena
48%
Sampdoria
48%
Frosinone
47%
Brescia
46%
Pisa
46%
Cittadella
45%
Reggiana
44%
Sudtirol
44%
Spezia is 3.4 percentage points better than Brescia in terms of average possession (50% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spezia
For 5.0 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.9 · Against 17.8 · Total 34.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brescia
For 4.4 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 14.5 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spezia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.2
10.1
6.0
6.3
5.8
34.1
35.1
33.0
vs Stronger (1)
11.0
-
11.0
2.0
-
2.0
33.0
-
33.0
vs Similar (37)
9.5
8.9
10.1
6.2
6.3
6.1
34.0
35.7
32.0
vs Weaker (12)
10.0
10.0
10.0
5.7
6.0
5.4
34.4
32.8
35.6
% over line
54%
52%
56%
92%
92%
92%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
46%
48%
44%
8%
8%
8%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Brescia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brescia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.6
10.3
5.0
5.1
5.0
29.1
28.8
29.5
vs Stronger (23)
9.5
9.1
9.9
5.2
5.2
5.2
29.1
29.2
29.0
vs Similar (26)
9.5
8.2
10.7
4.8
4.9
4.8
29.3
28.7
29.9
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
9.0
-
6.0
6.0
-
26.0
26.0
-
% over line
50%
42%
58%
72%
71%
73%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
50%
58%
42%
28%
29%
27%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (Spezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Palermo
10.8
Juve Stabia
10.3
Cosenza
10.3
Spezia
9.6
Frosinone
9.5
Brescia
9.5
Bari
9.3
Cremonese
9.3
Salernitana
9.2
Modena
9.2
Carrarese
9.1
Cittadella
9.1
Cesena
9.0
Sudtirol
9.0
Sampdoria
9.0
Sassuolo
9.0
Catanzaro
8.9
Mantova
8.7
Reggiana
8.7
Pisa
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cosenza
6.2
Juve Stabia
6.1
Spezia
6.0
Reggiana
5.8
Mantova
5.7
Sampdoria
5.5
Bari
5.4
Modena
5.3
Cremonese
5.2
Pisa
5.2
Cittadella
5.1
Brescia
5.0
Carrarese
5.0
Sudtirol
4.9
Catanzaro
4.9
Cesena
4.9
Frosinone
4.9
Palermo
4.7
Salernitana
4.7
Sassuolo
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
35.2
Spezia
34.1
Juve Stabia
33.8
Cittadella
31.1
Reggiana
31.1
Sudtirol
30.6
Bari
30.2
Sampdoria
29.6
Cesena
29.3
Cosenza
29.2
Brescia
29.1
Cremonese
29.0
Pisa
28.9
Palermo
28.8
Frosinone
28.6
Catanzaro
28.6
Modena
28.6
Carrarese
28.4
Salernitana
27.3
Sassuolo
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
47.1%
Under 9.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
81.4%
Under 3.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
97.7%
Under 21.5
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spezia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.43
0.79
0.50
0.69
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.52
0.62
0.54
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Brescia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brescia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.73
0.60
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (14)
0.79
0.57
1.29
0.43
0.29
0.71
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.56
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Spezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spezia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spezia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.30
1.14
0.36
0.44
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.32
1.08
0.38
0.42
0.25
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.20
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Brescia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brescia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.67
0.80
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.14
0.71
1.29
0.29
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.44
0.62
0.38
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Spezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spezia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Spezia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Francesco Pio Esposito42%
Gianluca Lapadula21%
Edoardo Soleri19%
Salvatore Esposito16%
Luca Vignali15%
Rachid Kouda14%
Giuseppe Aurelio13%
Nicolò Bertola10%
Przemysław Wiśniewski8%
Giuseppe Di Serio6%
Salvatore Elia6%
Petko Hristov5%
Pietro Candelari5%
Antonio Čolak4%
Diego Falcinelli4%
Filippo Bandinelli3%
Aleš Matějů3%
Arkadiusz Reca0%
Ádám Nagy0%
Stefano Gori0%
Francesco Cassata0%
Leandro Chichizola0%
Mouhamadou Sarr0%
Duccio Degli Innocenti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Francesco Cassata25%
Filippo Bandinelli24%
Luca Vignali24%
Francesco Pio Esposito22%
Nicolò Bertola21%
Aleš Matějů21%
Petko Hristov21%
Giuseppe Di Serio20%
Salvatore Elia19%
Przemysław Wiśniewski19%
Salvatore Esposito19%
Arkadiusz Reca18%
Duccio Degli Innocenti18%
Ádám Nagy14%
Edoardo Soleri14%
Rachid Kouda14%
Leandro Chichizola9%
Diego Falcinelli8%
Gianluca Lapadula7%
Pietro Candelari5%
Giuseppe Aurelio3%
Antonio Čolak0%
Stefano Gori0%
Mouhamadou Sarr0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Salvatore Esposito24%
Rachid Kouda19%
Filippo Bandinelli9%
Antonio Čolak8%
Francesco Pio Esposito8%
Arkadiusz Reca7%
Giuseppe Di Serio6%
Salvatore Elia6%
Aleš Matějů5%
Edoardo Soleri5%
Pietro Candelari5%
Nicolò Bertola3%
Francesco Cassata3%
Luca Vignali3%
Przemysław Wiśniewski3%
Petko Hristov3%
Ádám Nagy0%
Diego Falcinelli0%
Stefano Gori0%
Gianluca Lapadula0%
Leandro Chichizola0%
Mouhamadou Sarr0%
Giuseppe Aurelio0%
Duccio Degli Innocenti0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Francesco Pio Esposito52%
Salvatore Esposito16%
Gianluca Lapadula14%
Giuseppe Di Serio11%
Edoardo Soleri10%
Luca Vignali6%
Duccio Degli Innocenti6%
Aleš Matějů5%
Rachid Kouda5%
Diego Falcinelli4%
Salvatore Elia3%
Arkadiusz Reca0%
Antonio Čolak0%
Ádám Nagy0%
Filippo Bandinelli0%
Stefano Gori0%
Francesco Cassata0%
Petko Hristov0%
Przemysław Wiśniewski0%
Leandro Chichizola0%
Mouhamadou Sarr0%
Giuseppe Aurelio0%
Nicolò Bertola0%
Pietro Candelari0%
Brescia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gabriele Moncini20%
Gennaro Borrelli19%
Flavio Bianchi17%
Birkir Bjarnason15%
Riccardo Fogliata14%
Matthias Verreth12%
Patrick Amiamo Nuamah8%
Davide Adorni8%
Giacomo Olzer7%
Ante Matej Jurić6%
Gabriele Calvani5%
Andrea Cistana4%
Nicolas Galazzi4%
Massimo Bertagnoli3%
Dimitri Bisoli3%
Michele Besaggio3%
Niccolò Corrado3%
Lorenzo Dickmann0%
Fabrizio Paghera0%
Luca Lezzerini0%
Alexander Jallow0%
Andrea Papetti0%
Luca D'Andrea0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fabrizio Paghera38%
Davide Adorni30%
Lorenzo Dickmann26%
Dimitri Bisoli26%
Matthias Verreth24%
Gennaro Borrelli22%
Ante Matej Jurić19%
Andrea Papetti16%
Birkir Bjarnason15%
Giacomo Olzer15%
Michele Besaggio14%
Gabriele Calvani14%
Patrick Amiamo Nuamah12%
Luca D'Andrea11%
Andrea Cistana9%
Flavio Bianchi8%
Nicolas Galazzi8%
Gabriele Moncini8%
Luca Lezzerini8%
Alexander Jallow6%
Massimo Bertagnoli3%
Niccolò Corrado3%
Riccardo Fogliata0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nicolas Galazzi21%
Dimitri Bisoli19%
Ante Matej Jurić9%
Andrea Cistana9%
Lorenzo Dickmann5%
Niccolò Corrado5%
Andrea Papetti5%
Gabriele Moncini4%
Birkir Bjarnason4%
Giacomo Olzer4%
Massimo Bertagnoli3%
Matthias Verreth3%
Gennaro Borrelli3%
Davide Adorni0%
Fabrizio Paghera0%
Luca Lezzerini0%
Alexander Jallow0%
Flavio Bianchi0%
Luca D'Andrea0%
Michele Besaggio0%
Gabriele Calvani0%
Patrick Amiamo Nuamah0%
Riccardo Fogliata0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gennaro Borrelli33%
Gabriele Moncini24%
Luca D'Andrea11%
Matthias Verreth9%
Davide Adorni8%
Lorenzo Dickmann8%
Giacomo Olzer7%
Massimo Bertagnoli7%
Dimitri Bisoli6%
Flavio Bianchi4%
Birkir Bjarnason4%
Ante Matej Jurić3%
Andrea Cistana0%
Fabrizio Paghera0%
Luca Lezzerini0%
Alexander Jallow0%
Niccolò Corrado0%
Andrea Papetti0%
Nicolas Galazzi0%
Michele Besaggio0%
Gabriele Calvani0%
Patrick Amiamo Nuamah0%
Riccardo Fogliata0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sassuolo
Pisa
Cremonese
Juve Stabia
Catanzaro
Cesena
Palermo
Bari
Sudtirol
Modena
Carrarese
Mantova
Sampdoria
Reggiana
Frosinone
Salernitana
Cittadella
Cosenza