This opponent (Tondela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tondela
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.77
1.47
1.67
1.20
1.87
vs Stronger (10)
1.20
2.20
0.80
2.00
1.60
2.40
vs Similar (20)
1.40
1.55
1.80
1.50
1.00
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.4%
Under 1.5
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.1%
@ 1.62-11.2%
Under 2.5
52.9%
@ 2.27+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.5%
Under 3.5
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.1%
No
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0 ✓
14.7%
1-0
14.2%
1-1
10.1%
3-0
9.5%
2-1
9.0%
0-0
8.7%
3-1
5.8%
4-0
4.6%
Sporting CP goals ↓
Tondela goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
3.8%
1.4%
0.3%
0.0%
1
14%
10%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
2
15%
9.0%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
3
9.5%
5.8%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
4
4.6%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sporting CP goals (down), columns = Tondela goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.68
Sporting CP
2.50
Benfica
2.18
SC Braga
1.91
GIL Vicente
1.50
Guimaraes
1.41
Santa Clara
1.18
Famalicao
1.15
Estoril
1.15
Portimonense
1.12
Maritimo
1.12
Boavista
1.12
Pacos Ferreira
1.12
Vizela
0.97
Arouca
0.91
Moreirense
0.85
Tondela
0.82
Belenenses
0.76
Sporting CP is 1.68 points better than Tondela in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 0.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.53
Benfica
2.29
Sporting CP
2.15
SC Braga
1.53
Guimaraes
1.47
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.32
Tondela
1.21
Maritimo
1.15
Boavista
1.15
Santa Clara
1.12
Vizela
1.09
Estoril
1.06
Moreirense
0.97
Portimonense
0.91
Arouca
0.88
Pacos Ferreira
0.85
Belenenses
0.68
Sporting CP is 0.94 goals better than Tondela in terms of goals scored per game (2.15 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.65
Sporting CP
0.68
Benfica
0.88
SC Braga
0.91
Guimaraes
1.21
GIL Vicente
1.24
Estoril
1.26
Maritimo
1.29
Pacos Ferreira
1.29
Portimonense
1.32
Famalicao
1.50
Moreirense
1.50
Boavista
1.53
Santa Clara
1.59
Arouca
1.59
Belenenses
1.62
Vizela
1.71
Tondela
1.97
Sporting CP is 1.29 goals better than Tondela in terms of goals conceded per game (0.68 vs 1.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sporting CP
For 7.6 · Against 3.0 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 3.7 · Total 7.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 14.6 · Total 28.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tondela
For 3.6 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 4.7 · Total 8.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 17.9 · Total 32.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sporting CP
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.2
10.0
6.1
6.4
5.8
32.6
33.1
32.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
8.7
7.7
9.5
8.1
10.3
6.5
36.1
35.7
36.5
vs Weaker (43)
9.7
9.4
10.1
5.7
5.8
5.6
32.0
32.7
31.3
% over line
44%
32%
56%
80%
84%
76%
96%
100%
92%
% under line
56%
68%
44%
20%
16%
24%
4%
0%
8%
This opponent (Tondela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tondela
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.4
9.6
5.7
5.8
5.6
30.3
31.0
29.6
vs Stronger (19)
9.9
9.3
10.8
5.3
5.9
4.4
28.7
30.0
26.9
vs Similar (31)
9.3
9.5
9.1
6.0
5.7
6.2
31.4
31.8
30.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
42%
46%
80%
81%
79%
94%
96%
92%
% under line
56%
58%
54%
20%
19%
21%
6%
4%
8%
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Vizela
11.2
Estoril
10.3
GIL Vicente
10.3
Guimaraes
10.2
Santa Clara
10.0
Belenenses
9.9
Benfica
9.8
Boavista
9.8
Portimonense
9.7
Sporting CP
9.6
Tondela
9.5
Moreirense
9.5
SC Braga
9.5
Pacos Ferreira
9.4
Arouca
9.4
Famalicao
9.3
FC Porto
9.2
Maritimo
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arouca
7.1
Famalicao
6.5
Maritimo
6.3
Vizela
6.1
Sporting CP
6.1
Tondela
5.7
Moreirense
5.6
FC Porto
5.5
Boavista
5.5
Estoril
5.4
Santa Clara
5.3
GIL Vicente
5.3
Belenenses
5.2
Portimonense
5.1
SC Braga
5.0
Pacos Ferreira
4.6
Guimaraes
4.6
Benfica
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Maritimo
36.2
Santa Clara
32.7
Sporting CP
32.6
Boavista
32.4
Famalicao
32.2
Estoril
32.2
Pacos Ferreira
31.8
FC Porto
31.6
Arouca
31.6
Portimonense
31.6
Guimaraes
31.4
Tondela
30.3
Moreirense
30.3
Belenenses
30.3
GIL Vicente
29.5
SC Braga
29.3
Benfica
28.9
Vizela
28.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.3%
Under 9.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
86.7%
Under 3.5
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
94.6%
Under 21.5
5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sporting CP
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.20
0.88
0.12
0.50
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (26)
0.73
0.12
0.93
0.14
0.50
0.08
Clean sheet %
87% (+57pp vs league)
This opponent (Tondela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tondela
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.93
0.80
1.07
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.20
0.40
1.20
0.80
1.20
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.80
1.00
1.00
0.70
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sporting CP over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sporting CP
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.30
0.88
0.25
1.00
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (26)
0.96
0.27
0.93
0.21
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Tondela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tondela
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.67
0.60
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.00
0.40
0.80
0.80
1.20
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.75
0.80
0.50
0.30
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sporting CP over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sporting CP · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fotis Ioannidis67%
Flávio Gonçalves50%
Maximiliano Araújo33%
Luis Javier Suárez25%
Rodrigo Zalazar25%
Geny Catamo25%
Sergi Altimira25%
Rui Silva0%
Gonçalo Inácio0%
Issa Doumbia0%
Iván Fresneda0%
Luís Guilherme0%
Jesse Derry0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luis Javier Suárez50%
Geny Catamo50%
Gonçalo Inácio33%
Jesse Derry33%
Sergi Altimira25%
Fotis Ioannidis0%
Rui Silva0%
Maximiliano Araújo0%
Rodrigo Zalazar0%
Issa Doumbia0%
Iván Fresneda0%
Luís Guilherme0%
Flávio Gonçalves0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Geny Catamo50%
Fotis Ioannidis33%
Maximiliano Araújo33%
Rodrigo Zalazar25%
Issa Doumbia25%
Flávio Gonçalves25%
Rui Silva0%
Luis Javier Suárez0%
Gonçalo Inácio0%
Sergi Altimira0%
Iván Fresneda0%
Luís Guilherme0%
Jesse Derry0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fotis Ioannidis33%
Flávio Gonçalves25%
Rui Silva0%
Luis Javier Suárez0%
Maximiliano Araújo0%
Rodrigo Zalazar0%
Geny Catamo0%
Gonçalo Inácio0%
Sergi Altimira0%
Issa Doumbia0%
Iván Fresneda0%
Luís Guilherme0%
Jesse Derry0%
Tondela · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rony Lopes25%
Ivan Cavaleiro15%
Pedro Henryque15%
Bebeto12%
Emmanuel Maviram10%
João Silva8%
Yefrei Rodriguez8%
Cicero6%
Makan Aïko6%
Rodrigo Conceição5%
Jordan Siebatcheu5%
Sphephelo Sithole4%
Joe Hodge4%
Tiago Manso4%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka0%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
João Afonso0%
André Ceitil0%
Hélder Tavares0%
Christian Marques0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Rémy Vita0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Hugo Félix0%
Brayan Medina0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
Afonso Rodrigues0%
Miro0%
Yarlen0%
Moudjatovic0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rémy Vita50%
Brayan Medina36%
Cicero33%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka30%
Tiago Manso25%
Miro25%
João Afonso23%
Sphephelo Sithole23%
Pedro Henryque21%
Rodrigo Conceição20%
Emmanuel Maviram20%
Christian Marques19%
Rony Lopes19%
Bebeto17%
Afonso Rodrigues14%
Jordan Siebatcheu14%
Joe Hodge12%
Makan Aïko11%
Juan Rodríguez10%
João Silva8%
Moudjatovic8%
Ivan Cavaleiro8%
Hugo Félix8%
Yefrei Rodriguez8%
Bernardo Fontes6%
Hélder Tavares5%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
André Ceitil0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Yarlen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Makan Aïko11%
Rony Lopes6%
Pedro Henryque6%
Cicero6%
Emmanuel Maviram5%
Brayan Medina4%
Joe Hodge4%
Hugo Félix4%
Tiago Manso4%
Jordan Siebatcheu0%
Ivan Cavaleiro0%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka0%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
João Afonso0%
Bebeto0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
André Ceitil0%
Hélder Tavares0%
Christian Marques0%
Sphephelo Sithole0%
João Silva0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Rémy Vita0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Yefrei Rodriguez0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
Afonso Rodrigues0%
Miro0%
Yarlen0%
Moudjatovic0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pedro Henryque30%
Rony Lopes25%
Ivan Cavaleiro15%
Jordan Siebatcheu14%
Hugo Félix8%
Yefrei Rodriguez8%
Makan Aïko6%
Juan Rodríguez3%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka0%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
João Afonso0%
Bebeto0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
Cicero0%
André Ceitil0%
Hélder Tavares0%
Tiago Manso0%
Christian Marques0%
Sphephelo Sithole0%
João Silva0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Rémy Vita0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Joe Hodge0%
Emmanuel Maviram0%
Brayan Medina0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Afonso Rodrigues0%
Miro0%
Yarlen0%
Moudjatovic0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
POR (20)
€6m
PF (13)
€2m
Sporting CP's squad is €403m more valuable than Tondela's (€414m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
SC (11)
€9m
MAR (10)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
MOR (5)
€5m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
PF (3)
€1m
Sporting CP's attack is €144m more valuable than Tondela's (€146m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
SC (5)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
VIZ (5)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
Sporting CP's midfield is €90m more valuable than Tondela's (€91m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
POR (8)
€3m
PF (8)
€1m
Sporting CP's defence is €170m more valuable than Tondela's (€176m vs €6m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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FC Porto
Benfica
SC Braga
GIL Vicente
Guimaraes
Santa Clara
Famalicao
Estoril
Maritimo
Boavista
Portimonense
Pacos Ferreira
Vizela
Arouca
Moreirense
Belenenses