Sporting Gijon is expected to win this match, having been on a 3-game winning run, with a recent form note of being on a 3-game winning run. The overall shape of the match is likely to be a low-scoring draw, with 2.3 goals expected on average. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 14.2%.
Sporting Gijon's home form is strong, with an average of 1.77 goals scored and 1.0 conceded at home against similar opponents. Burgos, on the other hand, has an average of 0.85 goals scored and 1.0 conceded away against similar opponents.
The model's selection is a home win, with a 43% probability of occurring. The model also suggests the following selections: Over 3.5 cards (82.3%), Over 21.5 fouls (79.3%), and Under 3.5 (79.2%).
In terms of probabilities, Sporting Gijon has a 43% chance of winning, a 30% chance of drawing, and a 26% chance of losing. The model's suggested selections have the following probabilities: Over 3.5 cards (82.3%), Over 21.5 fouls (79.3%), and Under 3.5 (79.2%).
Results analysis
Sporting Gijon’s unbeaten run in their last five fixtures extended with a 1-0 win over Burgos, confirming the model’s prediction that the home side would triumph. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 43 % probability and the model’s call was correct. The match finished 1-0, a result the model had already favoured. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.8 %, Under 6.5 hit at 99.2 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.5 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.4 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.9 %, Under 5.5 hit at 97.4 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.3 %, and Home under 3.5 goals hit at 95.9 %. The model’s selections performed consistently, with the most likely total of 2 goals achieved in the 1-0 outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sporting Gijon win✓ Hit
42.7%
Avg Implied 42.1% · @ 2.22
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.52
888Sport
2.50
Superbet
2.22
Betano
2.22
Dafabet
2.22
Draw✗ Miss
31.1%
Avg Implied 31.3% · @ 2.98
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.12
1xBet
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Betano
3.05
Dafabet
3.05
Burgos win✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.51
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.90
Pinnacle
3.84
1xBet
3.76
Dafabet
3.70
Superbet
3.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sporting Gijon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.13
1.53
0.93
1.33
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.54
1.14
1.77
0.92
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Burgos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burgos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.77
1.38
0.69
0.79
0.86
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.14
0.72
1.47
0.60
0.79
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting Gijon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.3%
@ 1.47+3.0%
Under 1.5
33.7%
@ 2.54-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.49
Under
10Bet
2.70
Betfair
2.63
Superbet
2.62
Betano
2.57
Pinnacle
2.57
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.3%
@ 2.48+0.4%
Under 2.5
61.7%
@ 1.52-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.60
Betano
2.60
Bet365
2.60
Pinnacle
2.59
1xBet
2.45
Under
1xBet
1.58
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.5%
@ 4.75-1.2%
Under 3.5
81.5%
@ 1.17+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.25
Pinnacle
5.07
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Under
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.4%
@ 2.04-0.1%
No
54.6%
@ 1.70+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.12
BetVictor
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
William Hil
2.05
No
10Bet
1.77
888Sport
1.75
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%@ 5.46+6.3%
1-0 ✓
12.5%@ 5.59+4.6%
0-0
12.2%@ 6.28+5.1%
0-1
9.0%@ 7.50+3.1%
2-0
8.8%@ 8.97+3.9%
2-1
8.3%@ 8.81+3.3%
1-2
6.2%@ 11.72+2.4%
0-2
4.8%@ 15.23+1.9%
Sporting Gijon goals ↓
Burgos goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.0%
4.8%
1.5%
0.4%
1
13%
14%
6.2%
1.9%
0.5%
2
8.8%
8.3%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
3
3.8%
3.5%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.2%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sporting Gijon goals (down), columns = Burgos goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Girona
1.96
Almeria
1.72
Burgos
1.71
Mallorca
1.70
Las Palmas
1.68
Castellón
1.66
Eibar
1.60
Oviedo
1.58
Cordoba
1.45
Sporting Gijon
1.45
AD Ceuta FC
1.45
Albacete
1.40
FC Andorra
1.38
Tenerife
1.34
Sabadell
1.16
Granada CF
1.14
Celta de Vigo II
1.14
Eldense
1.13
Real Sociedad II
1.12
Leganes
1.10
Valladolid
1.10
Cadiz
1.02
Sporting Gijon is 0.26 points worse than Burgos in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Girona
1.87
Almeria
1.87
Castellón
1.66
Mallorca
1.62
Oviedo
1.51
FC Andorra
1.48
Sporting Gijon
1.43
Cordoba
1.36
Albacete
1.33
Las Palmas
1.32
Tenerife
1.28
Eibar
1.24
Real Sociedad II
1.24
AD Ceuta FC
1.21
Granada CF
1.19
Burgos
1.14
Sabadell
1.10
Celta de Vigo II
1.09
Eldense
1.08
Valladolid
1.05
Leganes
1.02
Cadiz
0.98
Sporting Gijon is 0.29 goals better than Burgos in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Burgos
0.79
Girona
0.92
Eibar
0.95
Las Palmas
0.95
Mallorca
1.06
Oviedo
1.14
Leganes
1.21
Castellón
1.25
FC Andorra
1.29
Sporting Gijon
1.29
Albacete
1.31
Granada CF
1.33
Tenerife
1.35
Valladolid
1.36
Cordoba
1.45
Cadiz
1.45
Real Sociedad II
1.45
Almeria
1.48
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Sabadell
1.56
Celta de Vigo II
1.58
Eldense
1.59
Sporting Gijon is 0.50 goals worse than Burgos in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 0.79).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
61%
Cordoba
58%
Las Palmas
56%
Castellón
55%
Almeria
52%
Leganes
51%
AD Ceuta FC
51%
Granada CF
50%
Valladolid
50%
Eibar
49%
Burgos
46%
Cadiz
46%
Sporting Gijon
46%
Real Sociedad II
44%
Albacete
42%
Sporting Gijon is 0.7 percentage points worse than Burgos in terms of average possession (46% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sporting Gijon
For 3.6 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 11.6 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burgos
For 3.2 · Against 4.6 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.7 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 14.0 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sporting Gijon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.0
9.5
5.1
5.2
5.0
22.4
23.0
21.7
vs Stronger (1)
12.0
12.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
22.0
22.0
-
vs Similar (45)
10.0
10.2
9.7
5.3
5.4
5.2
22.0
22.8
21.3
vs Weaker (4)
6.7
7.0
6.0
3.5
3.5
3.5
27.7
26.0
31.0
% over line
52%
56%
48%
74%
80%
68%
56%
60%
52%
% under line
48%
44%
52%
26%
20%
32%
44%
40%
48%
This opponent (Burgos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burgos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.4
8.4
5.3
5.5
5.2
26.5
26.0
27.0
vs Stronger (1)
9.0
9.0
-
4.0
4.0
-
18.0
18.0
-
vs Similar (48)
8.4
8.4
8.4
5.5
5.5
5.4
26.6
26.3
27.0
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
31%
28%
35%
80%
84%
76%
82%
80%
83%
% under line
69%
72%
65%
20%
16%
24%
18%
20%
17%
This opponent (Sporting Gijon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albacete
10.9
Cordoba
10.6
Mallorca
10.2
Castellón
10.0
Sporting Gijon
9.7
Cadiz
9.6
Leganes
9.6
Almeria
9.5
Real Sociedad II
9.4
Eibar
9.4
Eldense
9.4
Oviedo
9.3
Granada CF
9.3
Girona
9.3
Tenerife
9.1
FC Andorra
9.1
Valladolid
9.0
AD Ceuta FC
8.8
Sabadell
8.8
Burgos
8.5
Las Palmas
8.3
Celta de Vigo II
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Celta de Vigo II
7.0
Castellón
6.0
Real Sociedad II
5.9
Cordoba
5.7
Burgos
5.7
Almeria
5.6
Granada CF
5.5
FC Andorra
5.5
Valladolid
5.4
Sporting Gijon
5.2
Eibar
5.2
Leganes
5.2
AD Ceuta FC
5.2
Cadiz
5.1
Tenerife
4.7
Las Palmas
4.6
Sabadell
4.6
Albacete
4.6
Girona
4.5
Eldense
4.5
Mallorca
4.3
Oviedo
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Celta de Vigo II
35.0
Cordoba
29.6
Real Sociedad II
28.7
Valladolid
28.5
Castellón
28.1
Sabadell
27.8
AD Ceuta FC
27.8
FC Andorra
27.7
Granada CF
27.3
Las Palmas
27.3
Tenerife
27.1
Burgos
26.6
Almeria
26.5
Leganes
26.2
Eibar
25.7
Cadiz
25.5
Girona
25.4
Oviedo
25.1
Eldense
24.4
Mallorca
24.3
Sporting Gijon
22.2
Albacete
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
45.0%
@ 2.03-0.6%
Under 9.5
55.0%
@ 1.71+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
2.10
Superbet
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Under
Unibet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.72
Betano
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
81.5%
Under 3.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
77.5%
Under 21.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sporting Gijon or Draw✓ Hit
73.8%
Avg Implied 73.1% · @ 1.28
Edge
+0.7%
43%
31%
26%
covers Sporting Gijon + Draw
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.40
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Sporting Gijon or Burgos✓ Hit
68.9%
Avg Implied 68.9% · @ 1.36
Edge
+0.0%
43%
31%
26%
covers Sporting Gijon + Burgos
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.40
Bet365
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Draw or Burgos✗ Miss
57.3%
Avg Implied 58.0% · @ 1.62
Edge
-0.7%
43%
31%
26%
covers Draw + Burgos
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Bet365
1.67
SBO
1.67
Superbet
1.66
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sporting Gijon over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.1%
@ 1.32+1.9%
Under
27.9%
@ 3.11-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.34
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Sporting Gijon over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.4%
@ 2.59+0.5%
Under
63.6%
@ 1.45-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.80
Pinnacle
2.71
10Bet
2.70
Betfair
2.63
Superbet
2.62
Under
Marathonbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.45
Sporting Gijon over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.7%
@ 6.21-1.3%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.10+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
7.50
10Bet
6.50
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.40
Superbet
6.10
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
Sporting Gijon over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 17.12-1.5%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.02+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
23.00
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Burgos over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
61.1%
@ 1.54+0.8%
Under
38.9%
@ 2.35-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.59
BetVictor
1.57
Under
888Sport
2.63
10Bet
2.62
Betfair
2.38
Pinnacle
2.36
Unibet
2.30
Burgos over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.4%
@ 3.67-1.0%
Under
75.6%
@ 1.25+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.22
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Under
10Bet
1.33
888Sport
1.30
Marathonbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Burgos over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 10.26-2.1%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.04+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Betfair
10.00
1xBet
9.80
Marathonbet
9.80
Under
888Sport
1.06
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Burgos over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 28.88-1.8%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
33.00
888Sport
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
888Sport
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sporting Gijon, so a minus line means Sporting Gijon give that many goals of a start and Burgos receive them. At -1, Sporting Gijon must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sporting Gijon win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Burgos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burgos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.69
0.44
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.59
0.45
0.73
0.40
0.43
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting Gijon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.0%
@ 1.54+7.4%
Under 0.5
32.0%
@ 2.36-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.56
BetVictor
1.54
1xBet
1.54
Under
Betfair
2.50
William Hil
2.45
Pinnacle
2.41
Superbet
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
28.9%
@ 3.49+2.2%
Under 1.5
71.1%
@ 1.27-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.75
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Under
10Bet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.0%
@ 9.51-0.9%
Under 2.5
91.0%
@ 1.04+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
BetVictor
10.00
William Hil
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
William Hil
1.05
Betfair
1.04
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sporting Gijon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
46.0%
@ 2.15+2.9%
Under
54.0%
@ 1.63-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.24
Betano
2.20
Superbet
2.17
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
Under
Pinnacle
1.66
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
Unibet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Sporting Gijon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 6.82-2.5%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.07+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.90
1xBet
6.80
Marathonbet
6.80
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Sporting Gijon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 20.83-2.5%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Burgos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.0%
@ 2.68+3.3%
Under
62.0%
@ 1.42-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.91
Betano
2.80
Superbet
2.72
Marathonbet
2.68
1xBet
2.68
Under
10Bet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.42
Unibet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Burgos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.4%
@ 9.60-1.3%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.03+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Superbet
10.00
Betano
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Under
10Bet
1.05
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Burgos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 45.00-98.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sporting Gijon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.63
0.93
0.47
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.86
0.64
1.08
0.46
0.67
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Burgos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burgos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.30
0.69
0.25
0.36
0.36
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.55
0.28
0.73
0.20
0.36
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting Gijon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
75.2%
@ 1.35+6.0%
Under 0.5
24.8%
@ 3.03-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.32
Under
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Betano
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.7%
@ 2.59+5.8%
Under 1.5
58.3%
@ 1.45-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.70
Superbet
2.67
Bet365
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.8%
@ 6.17+0.7%
Under 2.5
84.2%
@ 1.10-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.60
William Hil
6.50
Betano
5.80
1xBet
5.55
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sporting Gijon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
52.1%
@ 1.81+0.8%
Under
47.9%
@ 1.90-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Under
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Superbet
1.83
Sporting Gijon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.1%
@ 4.94-0.7%
Under
81.9%
@ 1.14+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.30
Marathonbet
4.85
1xBet
4.85
Betano
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Sporting Gijon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 13.75-2.8%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.02+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Burgos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
46.6%
@ 2.24+5.3%
Under
53.4%
@ 1.57-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.27
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.22
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Burgos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.4%
@ 7.35+0.8%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.06-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
7.60
Marathonbet
7.50
1xBet
7.50
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Burgos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 20.75-1.9%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
888Sport
1.01
-
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.0%
1.04
888Sport
1.06
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.5%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
888Sport
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.6%
1.03
10Bet
1.05
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.0%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
William Hil
1.05
Betfair
1.04
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.6%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
-
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.3%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.2%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.9%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Superbet
1.12
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
81.5%
1.17
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Superbet
1.17
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.0%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.4%
1.25
Unibet
1.30
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.20
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
75.6%
1.25
10Bet
1.33
888Sport
1.30
Marathonbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.24
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.2%
1.35
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.32
+6.0%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
73.8%
1.28
888Sport
1.40
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.28
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
73.8%
1.28
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.1%
1.32
888Sport
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.1%
1.27
10Bet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.27
-2.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sporting Gijon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Juan Otero33%
Alejo Sarco33%
Rubén Yáñez0%
Pablo Vázquez0%
Álex Corredera0%
Konrad de la Fuente0%
Nikita Iosifov0%
César Gelabert0%
Pablo García0%
Guille Rosas0%
Nacho Martín0%
Aimar Duñabeitia0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pablo Vázquez33%
Guille Rosas33%
Nacho Martín33%
Aimar Duñabeitia33%
Juan Otero0%
Rubén Yáñez0%
Álex Corredera0%
Konrad de la Fuente0%
Nikita Iosifov0%
César Gelabert0%
Pablo García0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nikita Iosifov33%
Juan Otero0%
Rubén Yáñez0%
Pablo Vázquez0%
Álex Corredera0%
Konrad de la Fuente0%
César Gelabert0%
Pablo García0%
Guille Rosas0%
Nacho Martín0%
Aimar Duñabeitia0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Juan Otero33%
Rubén Yáñez0%
Pablo Vázquez0%
Álex Corredera0%
Konrad de la Fuente0%
Nikita Iosifov0%
César Gelabert0%
Pablo García0%
Guille Rosas0%
Nacho Martín0%
Aimar Duñabeitia0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Burgos
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álex Forés67%
Curro Sánchez33%
Javi Llabrés33%
David González33%
Víctor Mollejo0%
Pablo Galdames0%
Sergio González0%
Ander Cantero0%
José Gragera0%
Grego Sierra0%
Ignasi Vilarrasa0%
Alberto Dadie0%
Marcelo Expósito0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sergio González33%
José Gragera33%
Grego Sierra33%
Víctor Mollejo0%
Pablo Galdames0%
Ander Cantero0%
Curro Sánchez0%
Ignasi Vilarrasa0%
Álex Forés0%
Alberto Dadie0%
Javi Llabrés0%
David González0%
Marcelo Expósito0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Víctor Mollejo33%
Curro Sánchez33%
Pablo Galdames0%
Sergio González0%
Ander Cantero0%
José Gragera0%
Grego Sierra0%
Ignasi Vilarrasa0%
Álex Forés0%
Alberto Dadie0%
Javi Llabrés0%
David González0%
Marcelo Expósito0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Álex Forés33%
David González33%
Víctor Mollejo0%
Pablo Galdames0%
Sergio González0%
Ander Cantero0%
José Gragera0%
Grego Sierra0%
Curro Sánchez0%
Ignasi Vilarrasa0%
Alberto Dadie0%
Javi Llabrés0%
Marcelo Expósito0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (28)
€114m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (26)
€48m
OVI (23)
€30m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
CAD (29)
€27m
VAL (29)
€26m
RSI (25)
€23m
CAS (28)
€21m
ALB (27)
€18m
BUR (22)
€17m
GC (18)
€17m
COR (26)
€16m
EIB (24)
€15m
FA (26)
€15m
TEN (28)
€12m
ACF (22)
€10m
SAB (28)
€8m
CDV (22)
€8m
ELD (20)
€7m
Sporting Gijon's squad is €11m more valuable than Burgos's (€28m vs €17m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (12)
€64m
ALM (11)
€38m
MAL (11)
€23m
RSI (10)
€15m
OVI (11)
€15m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
CAD (12)
€11m
CAS (10)
€11m
VAL (11)
€10m
ALB (10)
€8m
BUR (7)
€8m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
FA (10)
€6m
ACF (10)
€5m
TEN (13)
€5m
COR (9)
€4m
CDV (9)
€4m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (8)
€3m
Sporting Gijon's attack is €6m more valuable than Burgos's (€14m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (7)
€28m
MAL (5)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
VAL (6)
€6m
OVI (4)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
ALM (4)
€4m
COR (5)
€4m
ALB (7)
€4m
TEN (5)
€4m
RSI (6)
€4m
BUR (6)
€4m
CAD (5)
€3m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
CAS (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
FA (5)
€3m
SAB (6)
€2m
ACF (4)
€1m
ELD (3)
€1m
CDV (3)
€1m
Sporting Gijon's midfield is €1m more valuable than Burgos's (€5m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
LP (10)
€13m
CAD (12)
€12m
ALM (11)
€11m
VAL (12)
€10m
OVI (8)
€10m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
CAS (12)
€8m
COR (12)
€7m
FA (11)
€7m
BUR (9)
€6m
ALB (10)
€5m
EIB (10)
€5m
RSI (9)
€4m
TEN (10)
€3m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (9)
€3m
ACF (8)
€3m
CDV (10)
€2m
Sporting Gijon's defence is €3m more valuable than Burgos's (€9m vs €6m).
Spain: Segunda División 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Granada CF
Castellón
Leganes
Mallorca
Tenerife
Las Palmas
Eibar
Sabadell
Girona
Celta de Vigo II
Real Sociedad II
Oviedo
FC Andorra
Almeria
Cadiz
Cordoba
Valladolid
Eldense
Albacete
AD Ceuta FC