The match between Sporting Gijon and Girona is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win. Sporting Gijon, fresh from a 2-game winning streak, has a 37% chance to lift the trophy, while a draw sits at 30% and Girona’s 33% win probability keeps the contest open. The model predicts an average of 2.5 goals, with the most likely total being 2 and a 27% chance that the final tally will be exactly that. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.2% probability. Sporting Gijon’s home form shows zero goals scored and two conceded on average against stronger opponents, whereas Girona, playing away against weaker opposition, averages one goal scored and two conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.7% with a 4% edge), Under 6.5 (98.7% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.9% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.5% with a 3% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (96.7% with a 7% edge), Under 5.5 (96.0% with a 4% edge), and Home under 3.5 goals (95.9% with a 5% edge).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sporting Gijon win
38.1%
Avg Implied 33.7% · @ 2.76
Edge
+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.90
Dafabet
2.85
1xBet
2.83
Pinnacle
2.82
10Bet
2.80
Draw
29.7%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.22
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.34
Dafabet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.27
Marathonbet
3.25
Girona win
32.2%
Avg Implied 37.5% · @ 2.48
Edge
-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.58
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.56
Dafabet
2.55
Bet365
2.55
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sporting Gijon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.10
1.53
0.87
1.27
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.50
1.11
1.77
0.85
1.27
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Girona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Girona
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.27
1.43
1.21
1.00
1.31
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.40
1.00
1.67
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.30
1.22
1.60
1.10
1.08
1.31
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting Gijon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.9%
@ 1.28-1.1%
Under 1.5
28.1%
@ 3.46+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.57
Betano
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.44
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
44.8%
@ 1.92-4.3%
Under 2.5
55.2%
@ 1.86+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.04
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
10Bet
1.93
Under
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
Betfair
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.6%
@ 3.23-5.3%
Under 3.5
76.4%
@ 1.31+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Pinnacle
3.35
10Bet
3.25
Under
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Both teams to score
Yes
51.4%
@ 1.67-3.7%
No
48.6%
@ 2.06+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
William Hil
1.70
BetVictor
1.70
10Bet
1.67
Betfair
1.67
No
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.11
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
10Bet
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 5.75+6.5%
0-0
9.8%@ 9.06+4.9%
1-0
9.7%@ 8.26+4.4%
0-1
8.6%@ 7.68+2.9%
2-1
8.3%@ 9.25+3.6%
1-2
7.5%@ 8.54+2.4%
2-0
7.1%@ 12.75+3.7%
0-2
5.8%@ 11.46+2.0%
Sporting Gijon goals ↓
Girona goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
8.6%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
1
9.7%
14%
7.5%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.1%
8.3%
4.9%
1.9%
0.6%
3
3.1%
3.6%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sporting Gijon goals (down), columns = Girona goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Girona
1.96
Almeria
1.72
Burgos
1.71
Mallorca
1.70
Las Palmas
1.68
Castellón
1.66
Eibar
1.60
Oviedo
1.58
Cordoba
1.45
Sporting Gijon
1.45
AD Ceuta FC
1.45
Albacete
1.40
FC Andorra
1.38
Tenerife
1.34
Sabadell
1.16
Granada CF
1.14
Celta de Vigo II
1.14
Eldense
1.13
Real Sociedad II
1.12
Valladolid
1.10
Leganes
1.10
Cadiz
1.02
Sporting Gijon is 0.51 points worse than Girona in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.96).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Girona
1.87
Almeria
1.87
Castellón
1.66
Mallorca
1.62
Oviedo
1.51
FC Andorra
1.48
Sporting Gijon
1.43
Cordoba
1.36
Albacete
1.33
Las Palmas
1.32
Tenerife
1.28
Eibar
1.24
Real Sociedad II
1.24
AD Ceuta FC
1.21
Granada CF
1.19
Burgos
1.14
Sabadell
1.10
Celta de Vigo II
1.09
Eldense
1.08
Valladolid
1.05
Leganes
1.02
Cadiz
0.98
Sporting Gijon is 0.44 goals worse than Girona in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 1.87).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Burgos
0.79
Girona
0.92
Eibar
0.95
Las Palmas
0.95
Mallorca
1.06
Oviedo
1.14
Leganes
1.21
Castellón
1.25
FC Andorra
1.29
Sporting Gijon
1.29
Albacete
1.31
Granada CF
1.33
Tenerife
1.35
Valladolid
1.36
Cordoba
1.45
Cadiz
1.45
Real Sociedad II
1.45
Almeria
1.48
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Sabadell
1.56
Celta de Vigo II
1.58
Eldense
1.59
Sporting Gijon is 0.37 goals worse than Girona in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 0.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
61%
Cordoba
58%
Las Palmas
56%
Castellón
55%
Almeria
52%
Leganes
51%
AD Ceuta FC
51%
Granada CF
50%
Valladolid
50%
Eibar
49%
Burgos
46%
Cadiz
46%
Sporting Gijon
46%
Real Sociedad II
44%
Albacete
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sporting Gijon
For 2.9 · Against 6.0 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 11.9 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Girona
For 4.9 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 17.3 · Total 28.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sporting Gijon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.0
9.2
5.1
5.2
5.0
22.7
23.2
22.1
vs Stronger (1)
12.0
12.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
22.0
22.0
-
vs Similar (45)
9.8
10.2
9.4
5.2
5.3
5.2
22.4
23.0
21.7
vs Weaker (4)
6.7
7.0
6.0
3.5
3.5
3.5
27.7
26.0
31.0
% over line
50%
56%
43%
74%
80%
68%
60%
64%
57%
% under line
50%
44%
57%
26%
20%
32%
40%
36%
43%
This opponent (Girona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Girona
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.8
9.7
4.3
4.7
3.9
25.2
25.0
25.5
vs Stronger (7)
11.0
8.2
14.7
2.7
2.5
3.0
19.7
20.8
18.3
vs Similar (39)
9.0
8.9
9.2
4.5
5.1
3.8
25.9
25.9
25.8
vs Weaker (4)
7.7
9.0
7.0
5.2
5.0
5.3
29.7
22.0
33.5
% over line
37%
32%
42%
54%
64%
44%
76%
76%
75%
% under line
63%
68%
58%
46%
36%
56%
24%
24%
25%
This opponent (Sporting Gijon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albacete
10.8
Cordoba
10.6
Mallorca
10.1
Castellón
10.0
Sporting Gijon
9.7
Cadiz
9.5
Almeria
9.5
Leganes
9.5
Real Sociedad II
9.4
Eibar
9.3
Eldense
9.3
Oviedo
9.3
Girona
9.2
Granada CF
9.2
Tenerife
9.1
Valladolid
9.1
FC Andorra
8.9
AD Ceuta FC
8.8
Sabadell
8.7
Burgos
8.5
Las Palmas
8.1
Celta de Vigo II
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Castellón
6.0
Real Sociedad II
5.9
Valladolid
5.7
Celta de Vigo II
5.7
Cordoba
5.6
Burgos
5.6
Almeria
5.6
Granada CF
5.5
FC Andorra
5.4
Sporting Gijon
5.2
Eibar
5.2
AD Ceuta FC
5.2
Cadiz
5.1
Leganes
5.0
Tenerife
4.8
Sabadell
4.7
Las Palmas
4.6
Albacete
4.5
Girona
4.5
Eldense
4.4
Mallorca
4.4
Oviedo
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cordoba
29.9
Real Sociedad II
28.8
Valladolid
28.6
Celta de Vigo II
28.3
Castellón
28.1
AD Ceuta FC
27.6
Las Palmas
27.6
FC Andorra
27.6
Sabadell
27.6
Granada CF
27.4
Tenerife
27.1
Almeria
26.6
Burgos
26.5
Leganes
26.0
Cadiz
25.6
Eibar
25.5
Girona
25.4
Oviedo
25.1
Eldense
24.4
Mallorca
24.3
Sporting Gijon
22.6
Albacete
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.1%
@ 2.03+2.3%
Under 9.5
51.9%
@ 1.71-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Under
Bet365
1.85
Unibet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.65
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
74.3%
Under 3.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
76.7%
Under 21.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sporting Gijon or Draw
67.8%
Avg Implied 62.1% · @ 1.50
Edge
+5.7%
38%
30%
32%
covers Sporting Gijon + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.55
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.53
1xBet
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Sporting Gijon or Girona
70.3%
Avg Implied 71.6% · @ 1.30
Edge
-1.3%
38%
30%
32%
covers Sporting Gijon + Girona
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Draw or Girona
61.9%
Avg Implied 66.3% · @ 1.41
Edge
-4.4%
38%
30%
32%
covers Draw + Girona
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sporting Gijon over/under 0.5
Over
72.6%
@ 1.30+1.4%
Under
27.4%
@ 3.22-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.39
Marathonbet
3.26
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Sporting Gijon over/under 1.5
Over
37.2%
@ 2.51+0.2%
Under
62.8%
@ 1.48-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.62
BetVictor
2.50
Unibet
2.48
Under
Marathonbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.49
1xBet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Sporting Gijon over/under 2.5
Over
14.2%
@ 5.90-1.5%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.10+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.20
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.75
BetVictor
5.75
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Sporting Gijon over/under 3.5
Over
4.3%
@ 14.62-2.3%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.02+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Girona over/under 0.5
Over
69.0%
@ 1.26-4.3%
Under
31.0%
@ 3.47+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.27
Under
Pinnacle
3.61
Marathonbet
3.56
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Girona over/under 1.5
Over
32.7%
@ 2.32-7.4%
Under
67.3%
@ 1.56+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.45
Betfair
2.38
Bet365
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
Marathonbet
2.31
Under
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
1xBet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.55
Unibet
1.55
Girona over/under 2.5
Over
11.5%
@ 5.24-6.2%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.12+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Girona over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
@ 12.38-4.5%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.03+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sporting Gijon, so a minus line means Sporting Gijon give that many goals of a start and Girona receive them. At -1, Sporting Gijon must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sporting Gijon win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sporting Gijon)
Sporting Gijon -2
6.2%
@ 15.00-0.0%
Draw -2
11.5%
@ 8.00-0.2%
Girona +2
82.3%
@ 1.14+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Away
Bet365
1.14
Handicap -1 (Sporting Gijon)
Sporting Gijon -1
17.7%
@ 5.54+1.5%
Draw -1
20.4%
@ 4.34-0.2%
Girona +1
61.9%
@ 1.42-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
5.75
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.20
Away
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.38
Handicap +1 (Sporting Gijon)
Sporting Gijon +1
67.8%
@ 1.49+7.8%
Draw +1
18.4%
@ 4.12-3.4%
Girona -1
13.8%
@ 4.93-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.44
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.85
Away
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.75
Unibet
4.40
Handicap +2 (Sporting Gijon)
Sporting Gijon +2
86.2%
@ 1.14+9.2%
Draw +2
9.4%
@ 6.27-4.6%
Girona -2
4.4%
@ 9.72-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
6.40
Marathonbet
4.90
Away
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
6.65
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sporting Gijon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.67
0.47
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.50
0.77
0.46
0.53
0.53
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Girona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Girona
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.43
0.38
0.44
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.60
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.35
0.60
0.40
0.46
0.31
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting Gijon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.7%
@ 1.38-0.4%
Under 0.5
33.3%
@ 2.82+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
2.99
William Hil
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.85
1xBet
2.81
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
28.7%
@ 2.76-4.9%
Under 1.5
71.3%
@ 1.40+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.87
William Hil
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Under
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.9%
@ 7.10-3.2%
Under 2.5
90.1%
@ 1.07+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Bet365
8.00
William Hil
7.50
Betano
6.60
1xBet
6.55
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sporting Gijon over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.4%
@ 2.12-5.4%
Under
61.6%
@ 1.65+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.17
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.10
Unibet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Sporting Gijon over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.5%
@ 6.78-7.1%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.07+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.10
Marathonbet
7.10
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Sporting Gijon over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
@ 19.25-3.7%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Girona over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.8%
@ 2.03+2.1%
Under
52.2%
@ 1.71-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.09
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.73
Unibet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Girona over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.5%
@ 6.36-2.1%
Under
87.5%
@ 1.08+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.55
Marathonbet
6.55
10Bet
6.25
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Girona over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.9%
@ 17.50-2.6%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sporting Gijon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.87
0.40
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.86
0.61
1.00
0.38
0.73
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Girona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Girona
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
0.93
0.79
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.87
1.00
0.70
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting Gijon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.5%
@ 1.22+0.8%
Under 0.5
23.5%
@ 3.83-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Under
Betano
3.95
1xBet
3.92
Marathonbet
3.92
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.4%
@ 2.08+3.5%
Under 1.5
51.6%
@ 1.69-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.15
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.06
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.65
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.9%
@ 4.38-3.4%
Under 2.5
82.1%
@ 1.18+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.80
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.25
Betano
4.10
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sporting Gijon over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.4%
@ 1.79-7.5%
Under
55.6%
@ 1.93+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
Under
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.93
10Bet
1.93
1xBet
1.86
Sporting Gijon over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.4%
@ 4.92-8.3%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.14+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Betano
4.55
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Sporting Gijon over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.3%
@ 12.62-5.2%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Girona over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.3%
@ 1.72+1.2%
Under
44.7%
@ 2.02-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Under
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Girona over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.1%
@ 4.47+0.4%
Under
78.9%
@ 1.17-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Girona over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.8%
@ 11.38-3.5%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.02+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.7%
Under 6.5
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.2%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
+4.5%
Under 5.5
96.0%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
-
+3.3%
Home under 3.5 goals
95.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+2.3%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+3.5%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.5%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-
+7.1%
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.1%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
+3.2%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.6%
1.14
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
-
+8.3%
Under 4.5
89.5%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+4.2%
Away under 2.5 goals
88.5%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.12
+6.2%
Over 2.5 cards
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
-
+2.1%
Home +2 handicap
86.2%
1.14
Unibet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
+9.2%
Home under 2.5 goals
85.8%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+1.5%
Away +2 handicap
82.3%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+0.3%
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.1%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
+3.4%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.9%
1.17
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-0.4%
Over 21.5 fouls
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.5%
1.22
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
+0.8%
Under 3.5
76.4%
1.31
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
+5.3%
Under 11.5 corners
75.0%
1.23
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
-
-0.0%
Over 3.5 cards
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.6%
1.30
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.30
+1.4%
Over 1.5
71.9%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
-1.1%
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.3%
1.40
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Unibet
1.40
+4.9%
Home or Away
70.3%
1.30
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
-1.3%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sporting Gijon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Juan Otero33%
Alejo Sarco33%
Rubén Yáñez0%
Pablo Vázquez0%
Álex Corredera0%
Konrad de la Fuente0%
Nikita Iosifov0%
César Gelabert0%
Pablo García0%
Guille Rosas0%
Nacho Martín0%
Aimar Duñabeitia0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pablo Vázquez33%
Guille Rosas33%
Nacho Martín33%
Aimar Duñabeitia33%
Juan Otero0%
Rubén Yáñez0%
Álex Corredera0%
Konrad de la Fuente0%
Nikita Iosifov0%
César Gelabert0%
Pablo García0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nikita Iosifov33%
Juan Otero0%
Rubén Yáñez0%
Pablo Vázquez0%
Álex Corredera0%
Konrad de la Fuente0%
César Gelabert0%
Pablo García0%
Guille Rosas0%
Nacho Martín0%
Aimar Duñabeitia0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Juan Otero33%
Rubén Yáñez0%
Pablo Vázquez0%
Álex Corredera0%
Konrad de la Fuente0%
Nikita Iosifov0%
César Gelabert0%
Pablo García0%
Guille Rosas0%
Nacho Martín0%
Aimar Duñabeitia0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Girona
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yáser Asprilla67%
Abel Ruíz33%
Fran Beltrán33%
Izan González33%
Paulo Gazzaniga0%
Bryan Gil0%
Álex Moreno0%
Alejandro Francés0%
Iván Morante0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bryan Gil33%
Fran Beltrán33%
Álex Moreno33%
Abel Ruíz0%
Paulo Gazzaniga0%
Alejandro Francés0%
Iván Morante0%
Yáser Asprilla0%
Izan González0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Abel Ruíz33%
Fran Beltrán33%
Paulo Gazzaniga0%
Bryan Gil0%
Álex Moreno0%
Alejandro Francés0%
Iván Morante0%
Yáser Asprilla0%
Izan González0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bryan Gil67%
Álex Moreno33%
Abel Ruíz0%
Paulo Gazzaniga0%
Fran Beltrán0%
Alejandro Francés0%
Iván Morante0%
Yáser Asprilla0%
Izan González0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (28)
€114m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (26)
€48m
OVI (23)
€30m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
CAD (29)
€27m
VAL (29)
€26m
RSI (25)
€23m
CAS (28)
€21m
ALB (27)
€18m
BUR (22)
€17m
GC (18)
€17m
COR (26)
€16m
EIB (24)
€15m
FA (26)
€15m
TEN (28)
€12m
ACF (22)
€10m
SAB (28)
€8m
CDV (22)
€8m
ELD (20)
€7m
Sporting Gijon's squad is €86m less valuable than Girona's (€28m vs €114m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (12)
€64m
ALM (11)
€38m
MAL (11)
€23m
RSI (10)
€15m
OVI (11)
€15m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
CAD (12)
€11m
CAS (10)
€11m
VAL (11)
€10m
ALB (10)
€8m
BUR (7)
€8m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
FA (10)
€6m
ACF (10)
€5m
TEN (13)
€5m
COR (9)
€4m
CDV (9)
€4m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (8)
€3m
Sporting Gijon's attack is €49m less valuable than Girona's (€14m vs €64m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (7)
€28m
MAL (5)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
VAL (6)
€6m
OVI (4)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
ALM (4)
€4m
COR (5)
€4m
ALB (7)
€4m
TEN (5)
€4m
RSI (6)
€4m
BUR (6)
€4m
CAD (5)
€3m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
CAS (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
FA (5)
€3m
SAB (6)
€2m
ACF (4)
€1m
ELD (3)
€1m
CDV (3)
€1m
Sporting Gijon's midfield is €24m less valuable than Girona's (€5m vs €28m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
LP (10)
€13m
CAD (12)
€12m
ALM (11)
€11m
VAL (12)
€10m
OVI (8)
€10m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
CAS (12)
€8m
COR (12)
€7m
FA (11)
€7m
BUR (9)
€6m
ALB (10)
€5m
EIB (10)
€5m
RSI (9)
€4m
TEN (10)
€3m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (9)
€3m
ACF (8)
€3m
CDV (10)
€2m
Sporting Gijon's defence is €13m less valuable than Girona's (€9m vs €22m).
Spain: Segunda División 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Granada CF
Castellón
Leganes
Mallorca
Tenerife
Las Palmas
Eibar
Sabadell
Celta de Vigo II
Burgos
Real Sociedad II
Oviedo
FC Andorra
Almeria
Cadiz
Cordoba
Valladolid
Eldense
Albacete
AD Ceuta FC