SpVgg Greuther F\u00fcrth will host 1. FC Heidenheim in a match where the model favours an away win, with a 39% chance, while a home victory sits at 37% and a draw at 24%. The expected total goals is 3.5, with the most likely total being three goals at a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.1% chance. Greuther F\u00fcrth, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. Heidenheim, on the road, averages 1.18 scored and 1.91 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7% (edge 7%), Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.1% (edge 4%), Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.9% (edge 8%), Under 7.5 at 96.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 91.8% (edge 2%), Under 6.5 at 91.2%, Home under 3.5 goals at 90.2%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 89.5% (edge 9%). Greuther F\u00fcrth comes off a win, while Heidenheim also enters after a victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth win
38.3%
Avg Implied 32.7% · @ 2.85
Edge
+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.98
Betano
2.95
Dafabet
2.90
William Hil
2.88
1xBet
2.88
Draw
24.2%
Avg Implied 25.6% · @ 3.64
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.90
Pinnacle
3.76
Unibet
3.75
Dafabet
3.70
10Bet
3.65
1. FC Heidenheim win
37.6%
Avg Implied 41.7% · @ 2.23
Edge
-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.30
Unibet
2.30
Dafabet
2.29
Betfair
2.25
10Bet
2.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.77
1.67
1.73
1.20
1.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.34
1.72
1.67
1.73
1.00
1.71
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
3.00
-
-
4.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Heidenheim
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
2.30
1.80
2.33
1.20
2.27
vs Stronger (9)
1.33
3.00
1.40
2.80
1.25
3.25
vs Similar (19)
1.26
1.89
1.38
1.88
1.18
1.91
vs Weaker (2)
4.50
3.00
4.50
3.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.3%
@ 1.14+5.0%
Under 1.5
12.7%
@ 5.26-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Pinnacle
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Under
Pinnacle
5.60
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Marathonbet
5.10
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.8%
@ 1.49+5.3%
Under 2.5
32.2%
@ 2.48-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.51
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.57
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.52
10Bet
2.50
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.2%
@ 2.23+4.1%
Under 3.5
53.8%
@ 1.62-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.26
Marathonbet
2.26
Pinnacle
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.66
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Both teams to score
Yes
69.1%
@ 1.42+4.1%
No
30.9%
@ 2.64-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
No
BetVictor
2.70
1xBet
2.66
Betano
2.65
Unibet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%@ 7.09+3.9%
2-1
8.1%@ 9.79+3.6%
1-2
8.1%@ 8.60+2.9%
2-2
7.1%@ 10.19+2.7%
3-1
4.8%@ 18.07+2.3%
2-0
4.7%@ 16.50+2.0%
1-3
4.7%@ 14.29+1.5%
0-2
4.6%@ 13.15+1.2%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goals ↓
1. FC Heidenheim goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
4.4%
4.6%
2.7%
1.2%
1
4.4%
10%
8.1%
4.7%
2.0%
2
4.7%
8.1%
7.1%
4.1%
1.8%
3
2.7%
4.8%
4.1%
2.4%
1.0%
4
1.2%
2.1%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SpVgg Greuther Fürth goals (down), columns = 1. FC Heidenheim goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
VfL Wolfsburg
2.14
Hannover 96
1.76
1. FC Heidenheim
1.64
FC St. Pauli
1.58
SV Darmstadt 98
1.53
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.53
Hertha BSC
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.35
VfL Bochum
1.29
Karlsruher SC
1.29
Holstein Kiel
1.21
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
Arminia Bielefeld
1.15
1. FC Magdeburg
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.11
Energie Cottbus
1.09
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.09
VfL Osnabrück
1.07
SpVgg Greuther Fürth is 0.53 points worse than 1. FC Heidenheim in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
VfL Wolfsburg
2.18
Hannover 96
1.76
SV Darmstadt 98
1.68
1. FC Heidenheim
1.67
FC St. Pauli
1.62
Dynamo Dresden
1.59
Arminia Bielefeld
1.56
Karlsruher SC
1.56
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.53
1. FC Magdeburg
1.53
VfL Bochum
1.44
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.42
Hertha BSC
1.38
1. FC Nürnberg
1.38
Holstein Kiel
1.29
Energie Cottbus
1.12
VfL Osnabrück
1.09
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.06
SpVgg Greuther Fürth is 0.26 goals worse than 1. FC Heidenheim in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
VfL Wolfsburg
0.93
1. FC Heidenheim
1.21
FC St. Pauli
1.26
Hannover 96
1.29
Hertha BSC
1.29
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
1. FC Nürnberg
1.32
VfL Bochum
1.38
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.38
Holstein Kiel
1.41
Arminia Bielefeld
1.50
Dynamo Dresden
1.56
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.59
1. FC Magdeburg
1.71
Energie Cottbus
1.82
VfL Osnabrück
1.87
Karlsruher SC
1.88
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.92
SpVgg Greuther Fürth is 0.70 goals worse than 1. FC Heidenheim in terms of goals conceded per game (1.92 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hannover 96
56%
1. FC Magdeburg
54%
Arminia Bielefeld
52%
Holstein Kiel
52%
SV Darmstadt 98
51%
Dynamo Dresden
50%
1. FC Nürnberg
49%
Hertha BSC
49%
Karlsruher SC
48%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
48%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
48%
VfL Bochum
46%
Eintracht Braunschweig
44%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
For 6.4 · Against 4.6 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 11.2 · Total 21.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
1. FC Heidenheim
For 4.4 · Against 6.0 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.8 · Against 9.2 · Total 18.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.0
10.4
4.4
4.8
4.1
24.3
24.4
24.3
vs Stronger (2)
10.5
10.5
-
6.0
6.0
-
29.5
29.5
-
vs Similar (46)
10.1
9.9
10.2
4.4
4.7
4.1
24.0
23.7
24.2
vs Weaker (2)
13.5
11.0
16.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
27.5
28.0
27.0
% over line
52%
56%
48%
72%
72%
72%
72%
68%
76%
% under line
48%
44%
52%
28%
28%
28%
28%
32%
24%
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Heidenheim
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.1
9.4
3.5
3.1
4.0
20.5
20.3
20.6
vs Stronger (16)
8.6
6.9
10.2
3.5
3.1
3.9
18.6
18.9
18.4
vs Similar (32)
9.3
9.8
8.9
3.5
2.9
4.0
21.8
22.0
21.7
vs Weaker (2)
12.5
12.5
-
4.5
4.5
-
13.0
13.0
-
% over line
40%
35%
46%
52%
38%
67%
42%
42%
42%
% under line
60%
65%
54%
48%
62%
33%
58%
58%
58%
This opponent (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Energie Cottbus
13.7
VfL Wolfsburg
11.7
VfL Osnabrück
10.9
Dynamo Dresden
10.7
VfL Bochum
10.5
Hannover 96
10.5
SV Darmstadt 98
10.5
Hertha BSC
10.4
1. FC Kaiserslautern
10.3
Eintracht Braunschweig
10.2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.2
Holstein Kiel
10.1
1. FC Magdeburg
10.0
Arminia Bielefeld
9.9
FC St. Pauli
9.6
1. FC Nürnberg
9.6
Karlsruher SC
9.4
1. FC Heidenheim
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Holstein Kiel
5.4
Eintracht Braunschweig
5.1
1. FC Kaiserslautern
5.0
1. FC Nürnberg
4.9
VfL Bochum
4.9
Hannover 96
4.8
Hertha BSC
4.8
1. FC Magdeburg
4.7
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.6
VfL Osnabrück
4.6
Karlsruher SC
4.6
Dynamo Dresden
4.2
Arminia Bielefeld
4.2
SV Darmstadt 98
4.0
FC St. Pauli
3.7
1. FC Heidenheim
3.7
VfL Wolfsburg
3.6
Energie Cottbus
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Holstein Kiel
26.5
Energie Cottbus
26.3
Hannover 96
26.2
Arminia Bielefeld
25.6
1. FC Kaiserslautern
25.4
VfL Osnabrück
25.2
1. FC Nürnberg
24.9
Eintracht Braunschweig
24.4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
24.3
Hertha BSC
24.1
1. FC Magdeburg
23.7
SV Darmstadt 98
23.6
Karlsruher SC
23.2
Dynamo Dresden
23.1
VfL Bochum
23.0
VfL Wolfsburg
20.7
1. FC Heidenheim
20.5
FC St. Pauli
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
53.0%
@ 1.87+3.1%
Under 9.5
47.0%
@ 1.86-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Unibet
1.66
Under
Unibet
2.05
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
66.9%
Under 3.5
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
65.3%
Under 21.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth or Draw
55.4%
Avg Implied 58.2% · @ 1.61
Edge
-2.7%
38%
24%
38%
covers SpVgg Greuther Fürth + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Betfair
1.62
1xBet
1.61
SpVgg Greuther Fürth or 1. FC Heidenheim
77.2%
Avg Implied 74.6% · @ 1.25
Edge
+2.6%
38%
24%
38%
covers SpVgg Greuther Fürth + 1. FC Heidenheim
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Draw or 1. FC Heidenheim
67.4%
Avg Implied 67.2% · @ 1.39
Edge
+0.1%
38%
24%
38%
covers Draw + 1. FC Heidenheim
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.44
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
William Hil
1.40
10Bet
1.40
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 0.5
Over
82.4%
@ 1.20+5.3%
Under
17.6%
@ 4.03-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Betfair
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.29
Unibet
4.10
BetVictor
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 1.5
Over
51.7%
@ 2.07+6.6%
Under
48.3%
@ 1.70-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Under
Unibet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 2.5
Over
25.2%
@ 4.42+4.2%
Under
74.8%
@ 1.18-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.63
Marathonbet
4.60
1xBet
4.60
BetVictor
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Under
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 3.5
Over
9.8%
@ 10.40+0.7%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.04-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Betfair
9.50
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 0.5
Over
87.0%
@ 1.14+5.9%
Under
13.0%
@ 4.88-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
Under
Pinnacle
5.73
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
10Bet
4.75
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 1.5
Over
60.4%
@ 1.79+8.3%
Under
39.6%
@ 1.95-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Betano
1.80
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.06
Betfair
2.00
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Betano
1.93
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 2.5
Over
33.3%
@ 3.52+7.0%
Under
66.7%
@ 1.26-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.31
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 3.5
Over
15.0%
@ 7.98+3.3%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.05-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
8.00
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so a minus line means SpVgg Greuther Fürth give that many goals of a start and 1. FC Heidenheim receive them. At -1, SpVgg Greuther Fürth must win by two or more to land; a one-goal SpVgg Greuther Fürth win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (SpVgg Greuther Fürth)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth -2
6.9%
@ 10.41-1.6%
Draw -2
9.8%
@ 7.15-2.6%
1. FC Heidenheim +2
83.2%
@ 1.13+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.65
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
5.10
Away
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
Handicap -1 (SpVgg Greuther Fürth)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth -1
16.8%
@ 5.27-0.3%
Draw -1
15.9%
@ 4.77-3.0%
1. FC Heidenheim +1
67.4%
@ 1.40+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.80
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Away
Unibet
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Handicap +1 (SpVgg Greuther Fürth)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth +1
55.4%
@ 1.60-0.7%
Draw +1
18.8%
@ 4.23-2.5%
1. FC Heidenheim -1
25.8%
@ 3.96+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Unibet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Unibet
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Away
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Unibet
3.90
Handicap +2 (SpVgg Greuther Fürth)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth +2
74.2%
@ 1.20-1.0%
Draw +2
13.6%
@ 6.40-0.5%
1. FC Heidenheim -2
12.3%
@ 8.42+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Draw
Marathonbet
6.75
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
6.00
Away
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
8.10
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
8.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
1.00
1.13
0.27
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.62
0.79
1.00
1.13
0.21
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Heidenheim
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.17
0.73
1.13
0.47
1.20
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.44
0.60
1.20
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (19)
0.47
1.00
0.62
1.00
0.36
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.8%
@ 1.25+0.5%
Under 0.5
25.2%
@ 3.62-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Under
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.75
Marathonbet
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.3%
@ 2.19-6.3%
Under 1.5
63.7%
@ 1.62+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.22
William Hil
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.67
Unibet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.4%
@ 4.98-5.3%
Under 2.5
86.6%
@ 1.15+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
1xBet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.2%
@ 1.88+2.7%
Under
47.8%
@ 1.84-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathonbet
1.89
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Under
Unibet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.80
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.2%
@ 5.55-0.6%
Under
83.8%
@ 1.11+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
5.50
Betano
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.08
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.9%
@ 13.25-4.3%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.01+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.2%
@ 1.74-10.4%
Under
56.8%
@ 2.01+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Unibet
1.71
Under
Pinnacle
2.11
1xBet
2.10
Unibet
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.5%
@ 4.84-8.7%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.15+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.65
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
@ 11.75-6.7%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.02+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.97
0.67
0.60
0.93
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.72
0.93
0.67
0.60
0.79
1.29
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
-
-
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Heidenheim
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.13
1.07
1.20
0.73
1.07
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.56
0.80
1.60
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.89
0.75
0.88
0.82
0.91
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.50
3.00
1.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.6%
@ 1.13-0.7%
Under 0.5
18.4%
@ 5.26+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Under
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.35
Betano
5.10
William Hil
5.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.3%
@ 1.70-3.5%
Under 1.5
48.7%
@ 2.06+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
William Hil
1.70
Under
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.07
1xBet
2.07
Unibet
2.06
William Hil
2.05
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.0%
@ 3.20-5.0%
Under 2.5
76.0%
@ 1.31+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.25
Marathonbet
3.15
1xBet
3.15
Betano
3.05
Under
Betano
1.36
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.6%
@ 1.62+4.3%
Under
38.4%
@ 2.17-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Under
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.16
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 1.5 2H
Over
24.3%
@ 3.99+1.2%
Under
75.7%
@ 1.20-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.2%
@ 9.38-1.8%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.04+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.7%
@ 1.49-10.5%
Under
48.3%
@ 2.46+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Under
Betano
2.50
10Bet
2.45
1xBet
2.42
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.6%
@ 3.31-14.2%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.28+14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.40
10Bet
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.25
Under
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.1%
@ 8.40-8.0%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.04+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.10
10Bet
8.50
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.7%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.3%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+8.0%
Under 7.5
96.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+0.1%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.8%
1.04
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
-
-
-
+1.8%
Under 6.5
91.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-1.8%
Home under 3.5 goals
90.2%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-0.7%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.15
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
-
+8.7%
Over 1.5
87.3%
1.14
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Pinnacle
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
+5.0%
Away over 0.5 goals
87.0%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
+5.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.6%
1.15
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.12
+5.3%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.4%
1.28
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
-
+14.2%
Away under 3.5 goals
85.0%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-3.3%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.8%
1.11
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.08
-
+0.6%
Over 2.5 cards
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.2%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
-
+4.2%
Home over 0.5 goals
82.4%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Betfair
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
+5.3%
Under 5.5
82.0%
1.08
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
BetVictor
1.06
-4.8%
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.6%
1.13
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-0.7%
Over 19.5 fouls
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.2%
1.25
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
+2.6%
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.0%
1.31
Betano
1.36
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
+5.0%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.7%
1.20
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-1.2%
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.8%
1.25
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
+0.5%
Home under 2.5 goals
74.8%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-4.2%
Home +2 handicap
74.2%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
-1.0%
Under 11.5 corners
70.8%
1.32
Unibet
1.43
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.25
-
-
+1.4%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Felix Klaus75%
Ole Pohlmann25%
Paul Will0%
Dennis Srbeny0%
Jannik Dehm0%
Luca Itter0%
Krisztián Keresztes0%
Shinta Appelkamp0%
Jannis Heuer0%
Aaron Keller0%
Omar Sillah0%
Sacha Banse0%
Florian Hellstern0%
Lukas Reich0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Paul Will25%
Krisztián Keresztes25%
Jannis Heuer25%
Aaron Keller25%
Dennis Srbeny0%
Jannik Dehm0%
Luca Itter0%
Felix Klaus0%
Shinta Appelkamp0%
Ole Pohlmann0%
Omar Sillah0%
Sacha Banse0%
Florian Hellstern0%
Lukas Reich0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Omar Sillah33%
Dennis Srbeny25%
Jannik Dehm25%
Luca Itter25%
Paul Will0%
Felix Klaus0%
Krisztián Keresztes0%
Shinta Appelkamp0%
Jannis Heuer0%
Ole Pohlmann0%
Aaron Keller0%
Sacha Banse0%
Florian Hellstern0%
Lukas Reich0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Felix Klaus50%
Ole Pohlmann25%
Sacha Banse25%
Paul Will0%
Dennis Srbeny0%
Jannik Dehm0%
Luca Itter0%
Krisztián Keresztes0%
Shinta Appelkamp0%
Jannis Heuer0%
Aaron Keller0%
Omar Sillah0%
Florian Hellstern0%
Lukas Reich0%
1. FC Heidenheim
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jan Schöppner75%
Mikkel Kaufmann33%
Marvin Pieringer33%
Budu Zivzivadze25%
Marcel Costly25%
Maximilian Breunig25%
Oualid Mhamdi25%
Marnon Busch0%
Patrick Mainka0%
Mathias Honsak0%
Jonas Föhrenbach0%
Luca Kerber0%
Frank Feller0%
Paul Hennrich0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oualid Mhamdi50%
Luca Kerber33%
Patrick Mainka25%
Mathias Honsak25%
Jan Schöppner25%
Mikkel Kaufmann0%
Budu Zivzivadze0%
Marnon Busch0%
Jonas Föhrenbach0%
Marcel Costly0%
Maximilian Breunig0%
Marvin Pieringer0%
Frank Feller0%
Paul Hennrich0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mikkel Kaufmann33%
Jonas Föhrenbach33%
Marvin Pieringer33%
Luca Kerber33%
Paul Hennrich33%
Mathias Honsak25%
Marcel Costly25%
Budu Zivzivadze0%
Marnon Busch0%
Patrick Mainka0%
Jan Schöppner0%
Maximilian Breunig0%
Oualid Mhamdi0%
Frank Feller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mikkel Kaufmann67%
Marvin Pieringer33%
Budu Zivzivadze25%
Marcel Costly25%
Maximilian Breunig25%
Marnon Busch0%
Patrick Mainka0%
Mathias Honsak0%
Jonas Föhrenbach0%
Jan Schöppner0%
Luca Kerber0%
Oualid Mhamdi0%
Frank Feller0%
Paul Hennrich0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (33)
€154m
FSP (27)
€46m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
1FK (26)
€28m
HB (24)
€25m
SD9 (28)
€24m
1FM (26)
€21m
EB (27)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
EC (26)
€11m
VO (25)
€10m
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's squad is €14m less valuable than 1. FC Heidenheim's (€19m vs €33m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (10)
€56m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
1FK (9)
€12m
1FM (9)
€10m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
HB (8)
€8m
EB (8)
€7m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
VO (9)
€5m
EC (10)
€4m
SGF (6)
€4m
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack is €11m less valuable than 1. FC Heidenheim's (€4m vs €15m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (8)
€32m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
1FK (6)
€5m
EB (7)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
KS (6)
€4m
1FM (4)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
HB (6)
€3m
VO (7)
€3m
EC (4)
€2m
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's midfield is €1m less valuable than 1. FC Heidenheim's (€5m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (15)
€66m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
HB (10)
€13m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
1FK (11)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
EB (12)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
1FM (13)
€7m
EC (12)
€5m
VO (9)
€3m
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence is €2m less valuable than 1. FC Heidenheim's (€9m vs €12m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
1. FC Nürnberg
Hertha BSC
VfL Wolfsburg
1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Karlsruher SC
Eintracht Braunschweig
Arminia Bielefeld
VfL Bochum
Energie Cottbus
Hannover 96
VfL Osnabrück
Dynamo Dresden
FC St. Pauli
Holstein Kiel
SV Darmstadt 98