This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.05
1.32
1.90
1.00
2.22
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
2.15
1.38
2.12
1.00
2.20
2.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
1.17
1.00
1.00
2.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
26% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.6%
Under 1.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.4%
Under 2.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.0%
No
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
6.4%
0-1
6.3%
1-0
6.2%
0-0 ✓
5.9%
0-2
5.6%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goals ↓
Holstein Kiel goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
6.3%
5.6%
2.9%
1.1%
1
6.2%
12%
8.5%
4.3%
1.6%
2
5.5%
8.3%
6.4%
3.2%
1.2%
3
2.7%
4.2%
3.2%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.0%
1.6%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SpVgg Greuther Fürth goals (down), columns = Holstein Kiel goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.85
1. FC Nürnberg
1.76
Holstein Kiel
1.65
Arminia Bielefeld
1.41
VfL Bochum
1.41
Duisburg
1.41
Regensburg
1.41
Union Berlin
1.38
Ingolstadt
1.32
FC St. Pauli
1.26
SV Darmstadt 98
1.26
SV Sandhausen
1.26
1. FC Heidenheim
1.24
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.18
Erzgebirge Aue
1.18
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.15
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.03
SpVgg Greuther Fürth is 0.47 points worse than Holstein Kiel in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.65).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Holstein Kiel
2.09
1. FC Nürnberg
1.79
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.68
Union Berlin
1.59
Regensburg
1.56
Duisburg
1.53
Arminia Bielefeld
1.50
1. FC Heidenheim
1.47
SV Darmstadt 98
1.38
Ingolstadt
1.38
Dynamo Dresden
1.24
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.24
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.09
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.09
VfL Bochum
1.09
FC St. Pauli
1.03
Erzgebirge Aue
1.03
SV Sandhausen
1.03
SpVgg Greuther Fürth is 1.00 goals worse than Holstein Kiel in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 2.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SV Sandhausen
0.97
1. FC Nürnberg
1.15
VfL Bochum
1.18
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.26
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.29
Holstein Kiel
1.29
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
Ingolstadt
1.32
Union Berlin
1.35
Arminia Bielefeld
1.38
FC St. Pauli
1.41
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.41
Erzgebirge Aue
1.44
Dynamo Dresden
1.53
Regensburg
1.56
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.62
Duisburg
1.65
1. FC Heidenheim
1.65
SpVgg Greuther Fürth is 0.12 goals worse than Holstein Kiel in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
For 3.5 · Against 5.0 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.6 · Against 14.2 · Total 29.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Holstein Kiel
For 6.4 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 14.5 · Total 29.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
9.8
7.6
1.6
2.0
1.3
30.0
30.8
29.3
vs Stronger (5)
8.0
-
8.0
0.2
0.0
0.3
28.0
-
28.0
vs Similar (36)
8.6
10.3
6.9
1.8
2.1
1.5
31.3
31.6
31.0
vs Weaker (9)
9.0
8.0
10.0
1.8
2.2
1.4
26.0
28.0
24.0
% over line
37%
67%
10%
26%
33%
19%
95%
100%
90%
% under line
63%
33%
90%
74%
67%
81%
5%
0%
10%
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (19)
9.7
9.6
9.9
5.3
4.9
5.7
30.2
28.6
31.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
8.9
8.9
9.0
4.8
5.1
4.4
27.5
27.5
27.4
vs Weaker (6)
11.5
12.5
11.0
6.2
4.0
7.2
36.0
33.0
37.5
% over line
53%
50%
56%
79%
70%
89%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
47%
50%
44%
21%
30%
11%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
1. FC Heidenheim
10.6
FC St. Pauli
10.1
SV Darmstadt 98
10.1
Arminia Bielefeld
10.0
1. FC Nürnberg
9.9
Eintracht Braunschweig
9.9
Union Berlin
9.8
Holstein Kiel
9.7
Dynamo Dresden
9.7
Erzgebirge Aue
9.5
Regensburg
9.5
1. FC Kaiserslautern
9.4
VfL Bochum
9.2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
9.2
Ingolstadt
9.2
SV Sandhausen
8.9
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
8.6
Duisburg
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fortuna Düsseldorf
5.4
Holstein Kiel
5.3
Regensburg
5.1
1. FC Heidenheim
4.9
Eintracht Braunschweig
4.8
Erzgebirge Aue
4.7
SV Sandhausen
4.7
Duisburg
4.6
Ingolstadt
4.3
1. FC Kaiserslautern
4.3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.3
Dynamo Dresden
4.3
VfL Bochum
4.3
SV Darmstadt 98
4.2
FC St. Pauli
4.1
1. FC Nürnberg
3.9
Union Berlin
3.9
Arminia Bielefeld
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Sandhausen
34.4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
32.5
Regensburg
31.9
Ingolstadt
31.6
1. FC Kaiserslautern
31.2
1. FC Heidenheim
30.4
Holstein Kiel
30.2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
30.0
Erzgebirge Aue
30.0
Eintracht Braunschweig
29.7
SV Darmstadt 98
29.6
Union Berlin
29.1
VfL Bochum
28.6
Dynamo Dresden
28.2
Duisburg
27.1
Arminia Bielefeld
26.3
FC St. Pauli
26.3
1. FC Nürnberg
25.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.8%
Under 9.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
78.6%
Under 3.5
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
95.7%
Under 21.5
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.64
0.29
0.31
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.55
0.70
0.30
0.33
0.75
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
0.80
0.60
1.22
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.69
1.00
0.50
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.64
0.64
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.64
0.70
0.60
0.25
0.67
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.05
0.68
1.10
0.40
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.69
1.12
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Felix Klaus75%
Ole Pohlmann25%
Paul Will0%
Dennis Srbeny0%
Jannik Dehm0%
Luca Itter0%
Krisztián Keresztes0%
Shinta Appelkamp0%
Jannis Heuer0%
Aaron Keller0%
Omar Sillah0%
Sacha Banse0%
Florian Hellstern0%
Lukas Reich0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Paul Will25%
Krisztián Keresztes25%
Jannis Heuer25%
Aaron Keller25%
Dennis Srbeny0%
Jannik Dehm0%
Luca Itter0%
Felix Klaus0%
Shinta Appelkamp0%
Ole Pohlmann0%
Omar Sillah0%
Sacha Banse0%
Florian Hellstern0%
Lukas Reich0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Omar Sillah33%
Dennis Srbeny25%
Jannik Dehm25%
Luca Itter25%
Paul Will0%
Felix Klaus0%
Krisztián Keresztes0%
Shinta Appelkamp0%
Jannis Heuer0%
Ole Pohlmann0%
Aaron Keller0%
Sacha Banse0%
Florian Hellstern0%
Lukas Reich0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Felix Klaus50%
Ole Pohlmann25%
Sacha Banse25%
Paul Will0%
Dennis Srbeny0%
Jannik Dehm0%
Luca Itter0%
Krisztián Keresztes0%
Shinta Appelkamp0%
Jannis Heuer0%
Aaron Keller0%
Omar Sillah0%
Florian Hellstern0%
Lukas Reich0%
Holstein Kiel · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi50%
Jonas Therkelsen25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kasper Davidsen75%
Ivan Nekić50%
Jonas Therkelsen50%
Hiroki Sekine50%
Timon Weiner33%
Leon Parduzi33%
Jonas Meffert25%
Guillermo Balzi25%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Phil Harres0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Phil Harres50%
Adrián Kaprálik50%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Guillermo Balzi0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (29)
€123m
FSP (27)
€46m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
1FK (26)
€28m
SD9 (28)
€24m
EB (27)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
FD (26)
€10m
DUI (26)
€9m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's squad is €15m less valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€19m vs €34m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (10)
€46m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
1FK (9)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
EB (8)
€7m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
SGF (6)
€4m
DUI (12)
€4m
ING (10)
€3m
FD (8)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack is €8m less valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€4m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (6)
€26m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
1FK (6)
€5m
EB (7)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
FD (5)
€2m
DUI (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's midfield is €1m less valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€5m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (13)
€50m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
1FK (11)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
EB (12)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
FD (13)
€5m
ING (12)
€3m
DUI (10)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence is €6m less valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€9m vs €16m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Fortuna Düsseldorf
1. FC Nürnberg
Arminia Bielefeld
VfL Bochum
Duisburg
Union Berlin
Ingolstadt
SV Darmstadt 98
SV Sandhausen
FC St. Pauli
1. FC Heidenheim
Dynamo Dresden
Erzgebirge Aue
Eintracht Braunschweig
1. FC Kaiserslautern