This opponent (Ulm) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
U
Ulm
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.27
1.20
1.20
0.87
1.33
vs Stronger (27)
0.96
1.33
0.93
1.21
1.00
1.46
vs Similar (3)
1.67
0.67
5.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.0%
Under 1.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.6%
@ 1.93+2.4%
Under 2.5
48.4%
@ 1.87-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.4%
Under 3.5
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.9%
No
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
9.4%
0-0
7.6%
1-2
5.9%
0-1 ✓
5.6%
3-1
5.5%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goals ↓
Ulm goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
5.6%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
1
9.9%
13%
5.9%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.4%
9.7%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
5.3%
5.5%
2.9%
1.0%
0.3%
4
2.3%
2.3%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SpVgg Greuther Fürth goals (down), columns = Ulm goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
1. FC Köln
1.87
Hamburger SV
1.76
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.71
Hannover 96
1.66
SC Paderborn 07
1.66
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.66
SV Elversberg
1.63
1. FC Magdeburg
1.58
Karlsruher SC
1.58
FC Saarbrücken
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.50
Hertha BSC
1.34
SV Darmstadt 98
1.21
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.21
FC Schalke 04
1.18
Preußen Münster
1.16
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.02
Ulm
0.88
SSV Ulm 1846
0.88
Jahn Regensburg
0.74
Regensburg
0.74
SpVgg Greuther Fürth is 0.33 points better than Ulm in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamburger SV
2.39
1. FC Nürnberg
1.92
SV Elversberg
1.87
1. FC Magdeburg
1.79
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.74
Karlsruher SC
1.68
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.66
SV Darmstadt 98
1.63
SC Paderborn 07
1.61
1. FC Köln
1.53
Hertha BSC
1.47
FC Schalke 04
1.47
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.37
Hannover 96
1.29
Preußen Münster
1.24
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.07
Ulm
1.06
SSV Ulm 1846
1.06
FC Saarbrücken
1.00
Jahn Regensburg
0.68
Regensburg
0.68
SpVgg Greuther Fürth is 0.31 goals better than Ulm in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Saarbrücken
1.00
Hannover 96
1.03
1. FC Köln
1.03
SV Elversberg
1.08
Preußen Münster
1.18
SC Paderborn 07
1.21
Hamburger SV
1.24
1. FC Magdeburg
1.39
Ulm
1.41
SSV Ulm 1846
1.41
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.45
Hertha BSC
1.50
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.50
Karlsruher SC
1.55
SV Darmstadt 98
1.61
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.63
1. FC Nürnberg
1.66
FC Schalke 04
1.71
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.77
Jahn Regensburg
2.09
Regensburg
2.09
SpVgg Greuther Fürth is 0.22 goals worse than Ulm in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
1. FC Magdeburg
58%
Hamburger SV
55%
FC Schalke 04
54%
Hertha BSC
53%
FC Saarbrücken
53%
1. FC Köln
53%
SV Elversberg
52%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
52%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
SV Darmstadt 98
52%
1. FC Nürnberg
51%
Fortuna Düsseldorf
50%
Hannover 96
49%
Karlsruher SC
49%
SSV Ulm 1846
46%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
46%
Eintracht Braunschweig
45%
Preußen Münster
43%
Jahn Regensburg
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
For 4.3 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 12.0 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
U
Ulm
For 4.4 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 13.4 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.5
9.9
5.1
5.1
5.1
24.1
23.7
24.5
vs Stronger (4)
10.2
10.0
10.5
5.2
6.0
4.5
23.8
28.0
19.5
vs Similar (38)
9.3
9.2
9.3
5.0
5.2
4.8
24.4
23.2
25.7
vs Weaker (8)
11.5
12.0
11.3
5.5
4.0
6.0
22.9
24.0
22.5
% over line
56%
58%
54%
74%
83%
65%
78%
71%
85%
% under line
44%
42%
46%
26%
17%
35%
22%
29%
15%
This opponent (Ulm) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
U
Ulm
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (30)
9.5
9.5
9.6
5.4
6.1
4.7
25.2
24.1
26.3
vs Stronger (27)
9.8
9.5
10.1
5.7
6.6
4.7
24.3
23.9
24.8
vs Similar (3)
7.3
9.0
6.5
3.3
0.0
5.0
33.0
27.0
36.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
37%
33%
40%
87%
87%
87%
87%
80%
93%
% under line
63%
67%
60%
13%
13%
13%
13%
20%
7%
This opponent (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
1. FC Köln
11.3
1. FC Magdeburg
11.1
Hertha BSC
11.1
1. FC Nürnberg
10.8
Hamburger SV
10.8
1. FC Kaiserslautern
10.8
Hannover 96
10.8
SV Elversberg
10.6
SC Paderborn 07
10.6
Jahn Regensburg
10.5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
10.4
Karlsruher SC
10.4
Eintracht Braunschweig
10.0
Regensburg
9.9
Preußen Münster
9.9
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
9.7
SSV Ulm 1846
9.6
SV Darmstadt 98
9.5
Ulm
9.5
FC Schalke 04
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SSV Ulm 1846
6.0
Ulm
5.4
1. FC Nürnberg
5.2
Hamburger SV
5.2
Eintracht Braunschweig
5.1
1. FC Kaiserslautern
5.1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
5.1
Preußen Münster
5.1
FC Schalke 04
5.1
Jahn Regensburg
5.0
SV Darmstadt 98
5.0
1. FC Magdeburg
4.9
1. FC Köln
4.8
Regensburg
4.8
Hertha BSC
4.6
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
Fortuna Düsseldorf
4.6
Karlsruher SC
4.5
SV Elversberg
4.5
Hannover 96
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Jahn Regensburg
26.6
Regensburg
25.9
Preußen Münster
25.9
1. FC Kaiserslautern
25.6
SSV Ulm 1846
25.2
Hannover 96
25.2
Ulm
25.2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
24.1
1. FC Nürnberg
23.7
1. FC Köln
23.4
Eintracht Braunschweig
23.4
Hamburger SV
23.1
1. FC Magdeburg
23.0
SV Darmstadt 98
22.8
SC Paderborn 07
22.7
Hertha BSC
22.4
SV Elversberg
22.0
Karlsruher SC
21.9
Fortuna Düsseldorf
21.2
FC Schalke 04
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
49.4%
Under 9.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
73.1%
Under 3.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
76.1%
Under 21.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.00
0.93
1.00
0.69
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.73
1.05
0.73
1.00
0.73
1.09
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.60
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulm) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
U
Ulm
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.30
0.67
0.07
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (27)
0.56
0.30
0.50
0.07
0.62
0.54
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
3.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.57
0.86
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.86
0.73
1.09
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulm) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
U
Ulm
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.97
0.53
1.13
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (27)
0.41
1.04
0.43
1.14
0.38
0.92
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.33
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulm over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Noel Futkeu29%
Julian Green23%
Branimir Hrgota17%
Dennis Srbeny14%
Jomaine Consbruch14%
Marlon Mustapha8%
Noah Loosli8%
Damian Michalski8%
Philipp Muller8%
Roberto Massimo7%
Felix Klaus7%
Sacha Banse5%
Gideon Jung4%
Niko Giesselmann4%
Marco Meyerhofer4%
Gian-Luca Itter3%
Simon Asta0%
Lennart Grill0%
Jannik Mause0%
Moritz Schulze0%
Marco John0%
Maximilian Dietz0%
Nahuel Noll0%
Daniel Kasper0%
Nemanja Motika0%
Oualid Mhamdi0%
Joshua Quarshie0%
Leander Popp0%
Reno Münz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Noah Loosli38%
Gideon Jung27%
Maximilian Dietz25%
Damian Michalski23%
Felix Klaus20%
Sacha Banse18%
Niko Giesselmann18%
Dennis Srbeny17%
Nemanja Motika17%
Branimir Hrgota14%
Roberto Massimo13%
Julian Green13%
Noel Futkeu12%
Marco Meyerhofer11%
Nahuel Noll10%
Marlon Mustapha8%
Philipp Muller8%
Simon Asta7%
Marco John7%
Joshua Quarshie7%
Jomaine Consbruch5%
Gian-Luca Itter3%
Lennart Grill0%
Jannik Mause0%
Moritz Schulze0%
Daniel Kasper0%
Oualid Mhamdi0%
Leander Popp0%
Reno Münz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Felix Klaus27%
Roberto Massimo17%
Jomaine Consbruch14%
Julian Green13%
Branimir Hrgota9%
Dennis Srbeny9%
Marlon Mustapha8%
Philipp Muller8%
Marco Meyerhofer7%
Gian-Luca Itter6%
Gideon Jung4%
Maximilian Dietz4%
Noel Futkeu3%
Simon Asta0%
Niko Giesselmann0%
Lennart Grill0%
Noah Loosli0%
Jannik Mause0%
Damian Michalski0%
Moritz Schulze0%
Marco John0%
Nahuel Noll0%
Daniel Kasper0%
Nemanja Motika0%
Oualid Mhamdi0%
Joshua Quarshie0%
Leander Popp0%
Sacha Banse0%
Reno Münz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Felix Klaus33%
Roberto Massimo30%
Julian Green23%
Noel Futkeu15%
Dennis Srbeny11%
Marco John7%
Gideon Jung4%
Niko Giesselmann4%
Branimir Hrgota3%
Simon Asta0%
Gian-Luca Itter0%
Lennart Grill0%
Noah Loosli0%
Jannik Mause0%
Marco Meyerhofer0%
Damian Michalski0%
Jomaine Consbruch0%
Moritz Schulze0%
Marlon Mustapha0%
Maximilian Dietz0%
Nahuel Noll0%
Daniel Kasper0%
Nemanja Motika0%
Oualid Mhamdi0%
Philipp Muller0%
Joshua Quarshie0%
Leander Popp0%
Sacha Banse0%
Reno Münz0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →