The model projects a high-scoring encounter with an expected 3.4 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 22% probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.5% chance. ST Johnstone, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.08 goals scored and 1.08 conceded, while Motherwell, on the road, averages only 0.5 scored and 1.58 conceded. The favourite result is a home win, with a 49% probability, followed by a 24% draw chance and a 27% away win chance.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.4%), Under 6.5 (94.4%), Home +2 handicap (87.6%), Under 5.5 (87.4%), and Home under 3.5 goals (86.5%). Under 5.5 cards is 87.7% and Over 1.5 is 85.9%. Each pick is listed with its exact probability, and the edge percentages are omitted as they are not provided. The recent form shows both sides after two consecutive defeats, with ST Johnstone losing to Hearts and Motherwell falling to Freiburg. The match is set to be a tight contest with a strong chance of a draw.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for ST Johnstone at 49 percent, fell short as the match finished 0-0, a draw that extended both sides’ recent struggles. The model’s call was wrong. The final score was a stalemate, and the actual result was a draw. The model’s selection for Under 7.5 goals hit, with a 97.8 percent chance, as did the Away under 3.5 goals at 94.4 percent, Under 6.5 at 94.4 percent, Home +2 handicap at 87.6 percent, Under 5.5 at 87.4 percent, and Home under 3.5 goals at 86.5 percent. Under 5.5 cards missed at 87.7 percent, and Over 1.5 missed at 85.9 percent. The expected total of 3.4 goals and the most likely score of 1-1 were not realised.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
ST Johnstone win✗ Miss
49.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Motherwell win✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ST Johnstone
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.40
1.65
1.24
1.00
1.62
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
2.22
0.60
1.60
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (20)
1.75
1.10
2.08
1.08
1.25
1.12
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.50
1.86
1.36
0.69
1.62
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
2.20
1.33
2.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (22)
1.14
1.45
1.90
1.30
0.50
1.58
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
3.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.9%
Under 1.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
65.5%
Under 2.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.6%
Under 3.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.0%
No
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
2-1
9.3%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
6.6%
2-0
6.6%
3-1
6.1%
1-0
5.8%
0-0 ✓
4.4%
ST Johnstone goals ↓
Motherwell goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
3.9%
3.5%
1.6%
0.6%
1
5.8%
10%
6.7%
3.2%
1.1%
2
6.6%
9.3%
6.6%
3.1%
1.1%
3
4.3%
6.1%
4.3%
2.0%
0.7%
4
2.1%
3.0%
2.1%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ST Johnstone goals (down), columns = Motherwell goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Aberdeen
2.57
Celtic
2.50
Dundee
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Ross County
2.40
Ayr Utd
2.25
Livingston
2.25
Dundee Utd
2.00
Spartans
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Queen's Park
1.80
ST Johnstone
1.80
Airdrie United
1.80
Hibernian
1.80
Partick
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.75
Raith Rovers
1.75
Montrose
1.75
Alloa Athletic
1.75
East Fife
1.75
Motherwell
1.71
Morton
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Peterhead
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Hamilton Academical
1.25
Arbroath
1.00
Kelty Hearts
1.00
Kilmarnock
1.00
Inverness CT
1.00
Cove Rangers
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Dunfermline
0.75
Stenhousemuir
0.75
Stirling
0.50
Elgin
0.25
Dumbarton
0.25
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.25
East Kilbride
0.25
Stranraer
0.25
ST Mirren
0.00
Edinburgh City
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
Brechin
0.00
ST Johnstone is 0.09 points better than Motherwell in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
4.25
Dundee
4.00
Queen's Park
3.20
Airdrie United
3.20
Hibernian
3.00
Aberdeen
2.86
Partick
2.75
Rangers
2.50
Falkirk
2.50
Ayr Utd
2.25
Clyde
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.20
Dundee Utd
2.00
Ross County
2.00
East Fife
2.00
Annan Athletic
1.75
Raith Rovers
1.75
Alloa Athletic
1.75
Montrose
1.50
Motherwell
1.43
Spartans
1.33
Livingston
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Peterhead
1.25
Hamilton Academical
1.25
Queen of the South
1.25
Dunfermline
1.00
Dumbarton
1.00
Stranraer
1.00
Morton
0.75
Elgin
0.75
Inverness CT
0.75
Cove Rangers
0.75
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.75
Forfar
0.75
Kelty Hearts
0.50
Stirling
0.50
Brechin
0.50
East Kilbride
0.50
Arbroath
0.25
Edinburgh City
0.25
ST Mirren
0.00
Kilmarnock
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
ST Johnstone is 0.77 goals better than Motherwell in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kilmarnock
0.00
Livingston
0.25
Motherwell
0.71
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Ross County
0.80
ST Mirren
1.00
Aberdeen
1.00
Raith Rovers
1.00
Dundee
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Rangers
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.17
Spartans
1.17
Falkirk
1.17
Queen's Park
1.20
Ayr Utd
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Partick
1.25
Annan Athletic
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Montrose
1.25
Alloa Athletic
1.25
East Fife
1.25
ST Johnstone
1.40
Morton
1.50
Celtic
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Inverness CT
1.75
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Stirling
2.00
Heart Of Midlothian
2.00
Airdrie United
2.20
Cove Rangers
2.25
Brechin
2.50
Stranraer
2.50
Stenhousemuir
2.75
Peterhead
2.75
Dumbarton
3.25
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
3.25
Elgin
3.50
Edinburgh City
4.00
East Kilbride
4.00
ST Johnstone is 0.69 goals worse than Motherwell in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 0.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ST Johnstone
For 4.2 · Against 6.0 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 12.5 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Motherwell
For 3.5 · Against 6.8 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 13.4 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Johnstone
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.6
9.6
3.1
3.1
3.1
22.8
22.1
23.5
vs Stronger (18)
11.8
12.8
10.9
3.2
3.2
3.2
21.2
20.9
21.5
vs Similar (31)
9.7
10.7
8.6
3.2
3.1
3.3
24.0
23.0
24.9
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
53%
58%
47%
44%
54%
33%
61%
58%
63%
% under line
47%
42%
53%
56%
46%
67%
39%
42%
37%
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
10.3
12.0
3.6
3.1
4.0
23.4
23.5
23.2
vs Stronger (8)
11.7
12.0
11.3
3.5
3.2
4.0
20.7
20.5
21.0
vs Similar (38)
11.1
9.9
12.1
3.9
3.2
4.7
23.9
24.3
23.6
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
62%
53%
71%
52%
44%
60%
65%
74%
57%
% under line
38%
47%
29%
48%
56%
40%
35%
26%
43%
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
East Kilbride
13.5
Celtic
11.7
Ross County
11.6
Hibernian
11.5
Motherwell
11.4
Aberdeen
11.4
Falkirk
11.2
Morton
11.2
Dundee Utd
11.1
Dumbarton
10.8
Rangers
10.8
Kilmarnock
10.7
Dundee
10.6
Airdrie United
10.6
ST Johnstone
10.5
ST Mirren
10.5
Dunfermline
10.5
Partick
10.2
Heart Of Midlothian
10.2
Stirling
10.2
Arbroath
10.1
Kelty Hearts
10.0
Brechin
10.0
Annan Athletic
10.0
Clyde
9.9
Cove Rangers
9.8
East Fife
9.6
Forfar
9.6
Stenhousemuir
9.4
Elgin
9.3
Montrose
9.2
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.1
Stranraer
9.1
Livingston
9.0
Inverness CT
8.8
Peterhead
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
7.5
Peterhead
5.2
Hamilton Academical
5.0
Elgin
4.7
Morton
4.7
Ayr Utd
4.7
Aberdeen
4.6
Edinburgh City
4.6
Forfar
4.6
Dundee Utd
4.5
Stirling
4.4
ST Mirren
4.3
Motherwell
4.2
Hibernian
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Falkirk
4.2
Heart Of Midlothian
4.1
East Fife
4.1
Rangers
4.0
Partick
4.0
Stranraer
4.0
Spartans
4.0
ST Johnstone
3.9
Kilmarnock
3.9
Livingston
3.8
Dundee
3.7
Annan Athletic
3.6
Montrose
3.6
Dunfermline
3.6
Dumbarton
3.6
Stenhousemuir
3.6
Celtic
3.6
Brechin
3.5
Airdrie United
3.5
Kelty Hearts
3.3
Ross County
3.3
Inverness CT
3.3
Arbroath
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Cove Rangers
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
31.0
Forfar
24.8
Peterhead
24.7
Elgin
23.9
Edinburgh City
23.9
Livingston
23.7
Aberdeen
23.5
East Fife
23.3
Clyde
22.6
Falkirk
22.3
Spartans
22.3
Morton
22.2
Motherwell
22.2
ST Johnstone
22.2
Kilmarnock
22.0
Stenhousemuir
22.0
Heart Of Midlothian
21.9
Stirling
21.7
Rangers
21.5
Inverness CT
21.3
Dundee Utd
21.2
ST Mirren
21.1
Ross County
20.7
Airdrie United
20.4
Brechin
20.4
Montrose
20.1
Stranraer
20.1
Annan Athletic
20.0
Partick
20.0
Dunfermline
19.9
Arbroath
19.9
Hibernian
19.8
Dundee
19.7
Kelty Hearts
19.6
Cove Rangers
19.0
Dumbarton
19.0
Celtic
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.6%
Under 9.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.0%
Under 3.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
74.0%
Under 21.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ST Johnstone or Draw✓ Hit
73.0%
Avg Implied -
49%
24%
27%
covers ST Johnstone + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone or Motherwell✗ Miss
76.1%
Avg Implied -
49%
24%
27%
covers ST Johnstone + Motherwell
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Motherwell✓ Hit
50.9%
Avg Implied -
49%
24%
27%
covers Draw + Motherwell
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
85.8%
Under
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
58.1%
Under
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
31.1%
Under
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
75.8%
Under
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
41.4%
Under
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to ST Johnstone, so a minus line means ST Johnstone give that many goals of a start and Motherwell receive them. At -1, ST Johnstone must win by two or more to land; a one-goal ST Johnstone win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (ST Johnstone)Actual: Motherwell
ST Johnstone -2
13.5%
Draw -2
15.1%
Motherwell +2
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (ST Johnstone)Actual: Motherwell
ST Johnstone -1
28.7%
Draw -1
20.5%
Motherwell +1
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (ST Johnstone)Actual: ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone +1
73.0%
Draw +1
14.6%
Motherwell -1
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (ST Johnstone)Actual: ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone +2
87.6%
Draw +2
8.0%
Motherwell -2
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ST Johnstone
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.90
0.76
0.76
0.15
1.08
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.44
0.40
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.70
0.92
0.67
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
1.00
0.64
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.77
1.10
0.60
0.17
0.92
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ST Johnstone
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.50
0.88
0.47
0.85
0.54
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.78
0.20
0.60
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.10
0.40
1.17
0.42
1.00
0.38
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.86
0.71
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.40
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.68
0.80
0.70
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
3.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ST Johnstone · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ruari Paton33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Kai Fotheringham33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Jamie Gullan0%
Reece McAlear0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Liam Smith33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sam Stanton33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamie Gullan33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Motherwell
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tawanda Maswanhise40%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos26%
Elijah Just20%
Emmanuel Longelo19%
Elliot Watt18%
Eythor Bjørgolfsson11%
Callum Slattery10%
Lukas Fadinger9%
Ibrahim Said8%
Liam Gordon6%
Johnny Koutroumbis4%
Stephen Welsh4%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
Callum Hendry0%
Paul McGinn0%
Jordan McGhee0%
Sam Nicholson0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Calum Ward0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Oscar Priestman0%
Detlef Esapa Osong0%
Luca Ross0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Callum Slattery26%
Elliot Watt21%
Callum Hendry19%
Liam Gordon18%
Emmanuel Longelo17%
Ibrahim Said16%
Paul McGinn12%
Elijah Just11%
Eythor Bjørgolfsson11%
Tom Sparrow11%
Sam Nicholson10%
Lukas Fadinger9%
Regan Charles-Cook8%
Stephen Welsh7%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos5%
Johnny Koutroumbis4%
Oscar Priestman4%
Stephen O'Donnell3%
Tawanda Maswanhise3%
Calum Ward3%
Jordan McGhee0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Detlef Esapa Osong0%
Luca Ross0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Eythor Bjørgolfsson22%
Callum Slattery19%
Elijah Just17%
Emmanuel Longelo11%
Tom Sparrow11%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos11%
Elliot Watt9%
Regan Charles-Cook8%
Lukas Fadinger6%
Stephen O'Donnell6%
Tawanda Maswanhise6%
Stephen Welsh4%
Johnny Koutroumbis0%
Liam Gordon0%
Callum Hendry0%
Paul McGinn0%
Jordan McGhee0%
Sam Nicholson0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Calum Ward0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Oscar Priestman0%
Detlef Esapa Osong0%
Luca Ross0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Elijah Just26%
Tawanda Maswanhise26%
Callum Slattery23%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos16%
Callum Hendry14%
Lukas Fadinger9%
Emmanuel Longelo6%
Johnny Koutroumbis0%
Elliot Watt0%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
Liam Gordon0%
Paul McGinn0%
Jordan McGhee0%
Sam Nicholson0%
Stephen Welsh0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Calum Ward0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Oscar Priestman0%
Eythor Bjørgolfsson0%
Detlef Esapa Osong0%
Luca Ross0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
ST Johnstone's squad is €11m less valuable than Motherwell's (€5m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
ST Johnstone's attack is €7m less valuable than Motherwell's (€2m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
ST Johnstone and Motherwell have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
ST Johnstone's defence is €3m less valuable than Motherwell's (€2m vs €5m).
Scotland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
Scotland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Partick
Dunfermline
Arbroath
Morton
Ross County
Airdrie United
Raith Rovers
Queens Park
Queen's Park
Ayr Utd
Alloa Athletic
Stenhousemuir
Queen of the South
Celtic
Heart Of Midlothian
Rangers
Hibernian
Falkirk
Dundee Utd
Dundee
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
Livingston