The encounter between ST Mirren and Dundee Utd is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win at 36%. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly high-scoring game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.2% chance. ST Mirren, at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 0.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded, while Dundee Utd, on the road, averages 1.17 scored and 1.83 conceded. Home win probability sits at 34%, draw at 30%, and away win at 36%. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 78%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.5%, Under 3.5 goals at 76.1%, Under 25.5 fouls at 73.9%, Over 19.5 fouls at 73.3%, Over 1.5 corners at 72.2%, and Under 11.5 corners at 71%. Each pick is presented with its exact percentage, and no other outcome is given a win probability. The match is balanced, with no clear favourite beyond the model’s pick.
Results analysis
ST Mirren finished 1-1 against Dundee Utd (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 34% home win, 30% draw and 36% away win. Picks that landed: Under 5.5 cards (76%), Under 3.5 (76%), Under 25.5 fouls (74%), Over 19.5 fouls (73%), Over 1.5 (72%). Missed: Over 2.5 cards (78%), Under 11.5 corners (71%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
ST Mirren win✗ Miss
34.4%
Avg Implied 43.3% · @ 2.14
Edge
-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.7%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.49
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dundee Utd win✗ Miss
35.9%
Avg Implied 30.2% · @ 3.07
Edge
+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ST Mirren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.60
0.85
1.15
1.18
1.94
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
1.64
1.50
0.50
1.14
2.29
vs Similar (19)
0.89
1.58
0.56
1.44
1.20
1.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee Utd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.53
1.25
1.00
1.14
2.14
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
2.20
2.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (25)
1.12
1.40
1.08
1.00
1.17
1.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.2%
Under 1.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.2%
@ 1.73-8.7%
Under 2.5
54.8%
@ 2.02+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.9%
Under 3.5
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.8%
No
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.2%
0-0
9.6%
0-1
9.2%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
7.9%
0-2
6.6%
2-0
6.3%
ST Mirren goals ↓
Dundee Utd goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
9.2%
6.6%
2.8%
0.9%
1
8.9%
14%
8.1%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.3%
7.9%
5.0%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.6%
3.2%
2.0%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ST Mirren goals (down), columns = Dundee Utd goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Partick
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Livingston
0.55
Arbroath
0.50
ST Mirren is 0.23 points worse than Dundee Utd in terms of average points per game (0.95 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Livingston
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
Partick
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Dunfermline
0.75
Arbroath
0.00
ST Mirren is 0.49 goals worse than Dundee Utd in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arbroath
0.50
Dunfermline
0.75
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Partick
1.00
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Livingston
1.97
ST Mirren is 0.18 goals better than Dundee Utd in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Arbroath
50%
Dunfermline
50%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Livingston
45%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
ST Mirren is 4.0 percentage points better than Dundee Utd in terms of average possession (46% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ST Mirren
For 4.8 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 11.9 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundee Utd
For 5.1 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 9.5 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Mirren
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
10.5
11.7
3.0
3.5
2.6
22.2
21.4
23.0
vs Stronger (20)
11.2
10.3
11.9
3.4
4.3
2.5
21.9
22.2
21.6
vs Similar (28)
11.1
10.6
11.5
3.0
3.1
2.9
22.5
20.7
24.2
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
72%
74%
71%
34%
57%
15%
57%
53%
62%
% under line
28%
26%
29%
66%
43%
85%
43%
47%
38%
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee Utd
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.5
9.3
3.5
3.3
3.7
21.6
20.9
22.3
vs Stronger (10)
12.6
13.2
12.0
3.0
4.0
2.0
17.6
16.8
18.4
vs Similar (40)
9.8
11.0
8.5
3.6
3.1
4.2
22.7
22.1
23.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
70%
50%
50%
42%
58%
47%
43%
50%
% under line
40%
30%
50%
50%
58%
42%
53%
57%
50%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.2
Celtic
10.9
Hibernian
10.8
Partick
10.4
Rangers
10.4
Dundee Utd
10.3
Aberdeen
10.2
Livingston
10.1
Heart Of Midlothian
10.0
Dundee
10.0
Falkirk
9.9
Kilmarnock
9.6
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.2
Motherwell
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.8
Motherwell
4.7
Hibernian
4.7
Heart Of Midlothian
4.4
Partick
4.3
Livingston
4.3
Rangers
4.2
Kilmarnock
4.2
Falkirk
4.1
Dundee Utd
4.1
Celtic
3.9
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Dundee
3.6
ST Mirren
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Motherwell
25.9
Rangers
25.8
Aberdeen
25.5
Livingston
25.2
Kilmarnock
24.6
Falkirk
24.5
Heart Of Midlothian
23.5
Hibernian
22.6
Dundee
22.1
Dundee Utd
22.0
Celtic
22.0
ST Mirren
21.8
Dunfermline
21.5
Arbroath
20.8
Partick
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.7%
Under 9.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.1%
Under 3.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
57.5%
Under 21.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.63
0.38
0.38
0.41
0.82
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.64
0.50
0.50
0.14
0.71
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.63
0.33
0.33
0.60
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee Utd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.38
0.50
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.33
0.67
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.40
0.64
0.38
0.46
0.42
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee Utd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee Utd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee Utd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.97
0.46
0.77
0.76
1.12
vs Stronger (11)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.57
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.95
0.22
1.11
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee Utd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.80
0.88
0.50
0.71
1.14
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.00
1.67
0.33
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.76
0.69
0.54
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee Utd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee Utd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee Utd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
Heart Of Midlothian
Rangers
Motherwell
Hibernian
Falkirk
Dundee
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
Livingston
Partick
Dunfermline
Arbroath