This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.83
1.67
0.80
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.04
0.65
1.36
0.73
0.75
0.58
vs Weaker (7)
1.71
1.43
2.50
1.00
0.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.5%
Under 1.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.7%
Under 2.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.3%
Under 3.5
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.1%
No
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
12.1%
0-0
11.2%
2-0 â
9.0%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
8.2%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
4.6%
St Patrick's Athl. goals ↓
Derry City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.2%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.2%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.0%
8.7%
4.2%
1.3%
0.3%
3
4.1%
3.9%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.4%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = St Patrick's Athl. goals (down), columns = Derry City goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.83
Derry City
1.75
Shelbourne
1.64
Bohemians
1.50
St Patrick's Athl.
1.44
Drogheda United
1.42
Sligo Rovers
1.14
Waterford
1.14
Galway United
1.08
Cork City
0.67
Bray Wanderers
0.00
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.31 points worse than Derry City in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.75).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.56
Derry City
1.44
Shelbourne
1.33
Bohemians
1.33
Sligo Rovers
1.17
St Patrick's Athl.
1.17
Waterford
1.16
Drogheda United
1.06
Galway United
1.03
Bray Wanderers
1.00
Cork City
0.92
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.28 goals worse than Derry City in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.44).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.89
Shamrock Rovers
0.92
Shelbourne
1.03
Drogheda United
1.06
Bohemians
1.08
Derry City
1.08
Galway United
1.22
Sligo Rovers
1.50
Waterford
1.65
Cork City
1.69
Bray Wanderers
2.00
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.19 goals better than Derry City in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.08).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
60%
Shelbourne
57%
Bohemians
56%
St Patrick's Athl.
54%
Derry City
54%
Sligo Rovers
49%
Waterford
47%
Cork City
46%
Galway United
41%
Drogheda United
36%
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.4 percentage points better than Derry City in terms of average possession (54% vs 54%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
St Patrick's Athl.
For 5.4 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.3
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.4
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.2 · Against 10.6 · Total 18.8
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derry City
For 6.1 · Against 2.0 · Total 8.1
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.8
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 13.4 · Total 26.1
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
St Patrick's Athl.
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.4
10.6
4.5
4.5
4.5
24.5
24.8
24.3
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
10.1
9.0
11.0
4.7
4.8
4.6
24.7
25.7
23.9
vs Weaker (12)
9.8
10.1
9.4
5.3
5.0
5.8
24.1
23.0
25.6
% over line
47%
43%
50%
68%
68%
68%
63%
57%
68%
% under line
53%
57%
50%
32%
32%
32%
37%
43%
32%
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
10.0
8.7
4.7
4.9
4.6
24.1
23.8
24.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
9.3
9.7
8.9
4.5
4.8
4.1
23.8
23.5
24.1
vs Weaker (13)
9.5
11.8
8.3
5.5
5.2
5.6
25.2
25.5
25.0
% over line
45%
50%
39%
74%
80%
68%
70%
62%
78%
% under line
55%
50%
61%
26%
20%
32%
30%
38%
22%
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bohemians
10.9
Waterford
9.9
Shamrock Rovers
9.9
St Patrick's Athl.
9.8
Galway United
9.7
Drogheda United
9.7
Derry City
9.4
Cork City
9.4
Sligo Rovers
9.1
Shelbourne
8.5
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Shelbourne
6.2
Bohemians
5.8
Waterford
5.5
Sligo Rovers
5.4
Shamrock Rovers
5.4
St Patrick's Athl.
5.3
Derry City
5.1
Cork City
5.1
Galway United
4.6
Drogheda United
4.6
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sligo Rovers
25.8
Shelbourne
25.5
Cork City
25.3
Bohemians
24.9
Waterford
24.9
St Patrick's Athl.
24.4
Galway United
24.4
Derry City
24.2
Shamrock Rovers
23.2
Drogheda United
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
43.3%
Under 9.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
82.0%
Under 3.5
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
66.2%
Under 21.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
St Patrick's Athl.
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.47
0.94
0.50
0.71
0.43
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.55
0.90
0.50
0.90
0.60
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.75
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.47
0.53
0.53
0.27
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.48
0.45
0.45
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.43
0.75
0.75
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
St Patrick's Athl.
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
0.81
0.50
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.65
0.70
0.50
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.50
1.50
0.75
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.37
1.13
0.27
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.17
0.91
0.27
0.42
0.08
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
1.00
1.75
0.25
0.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
St Patrick's Athl.
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mason Melia29%
Aidan Keena15%
Christopher Forrester14%
Zachary Elbouzedi13%
Simon Power10%
Conor Carty8%
Kian Leavy7%
Jason McClelland7%
Luke Turner7%
Joe Redmond6%
Ryan McLaughlin5%
Brandon Kavanagh4%
Jamie Lennon3%
Jake Mulraney3%
Barry Baggley0%
Tom Grivosti0%
Sean Hoare0%
Anto Breslin0%
Axel Sjoberg0%
Jordon Garrick0%
Joseph Anang0%
Al-Amin Kazeem0%
Romal Palmer0%
Darren Robinson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tom Grivosti48%
Jamie Lennon43%
Sean Hoare36%
Romal Palmer25%
Jake Mulraney23%
Axel Sjoberg21%
Barry Baggley21%
Anto Breslin18%
Joe Redmond17%
Al-Amin Kazeem15%
Jordon Garrick14%
Darren Robinson11%
Mason Melia9%
Brandon Kavanagh7%
Jason McClelland7%
Ryan McLaughlin5%
Aidan Keena5%
Zachary Elbouzedi4%
Christopher Forrester4%
Joseph Anang3%
Simon Power0%
Luke Turner0%
Conor Carty0%
Kian Leavy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordon Garrick14%
Barry Baggley12%
Brandon Kavanagh11%
Christopher Forrester11%
Mason Melia9%
Kian Leavy7%
Simon Power7%
Jason McClelland7%
Jake Mulraney6%
Anto Breslin6%
Joe Redmond6%
Aidan Keena5%
Tom Grivosti5%
Zachary Elbouzedi4%
Axel Sjoberg4%
Jamie Lennon3%
Ryan McLaughlin0%
Sean Hoare0%
Luke Turner0%
Joseph Anang0%
Al-Amin Kazeem0%
Romal Palmer0%
Conor Carty0%
Darren Robinson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mason Melia29%
Aidan Keena25%
Brandon Kavanagh19%
Jordon Garrick14%
Simon Power7%
Jake Mulraney6%
Anto Breslin6%
Christopher Forrester4%
Kian Leavy4%
Barry Baggley3%
Joe Redmond3%
Ryan McLaughlin0%
Tom Grivosti0%
Sean Hoare0%
Jamie Lennon0%
Zachary Elbouzedi0%
Jason McClelland0%
Axel Sjoberg0%
Luke Turner0%
Joseph Anang0%
Al-Amin Kazeem0%
Romal Palmer0%
Conor Carty0%
Darren Robinson0%
Derry City
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Afolabi Akinyemi43%
Michael Duffy35%
Danny Mullen24%
Liam Boyce22%
Alex Bannon17%
Gavin Whyte14%
Pat Hoban14%
Kevin Holt11%
Adam O'Reilly10%
Sadou Diallo10%
Brandon Fleming8%
Dominic Thomas8%
Ronan Boyce7%
Robbie Benson4%
Sam Todd3%
Mark Connolly3%
Carl Winchester0%
Shane Ferguson0%
Adam Frizzell0%
Paul McMullan0%
Jamie Stott0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Ben Doherty0%
Hayden Cann0%
Sean Patton0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sadou Diallo48%
Adam O'Reilly45%
Carl Winchester40%
Jamie Stott40%
Ciaron Harkin40%
Shane Ferguson33%
Liam Boyce22%
Hayden Cann22%
Danny Mullen20%
Ben Doherty20%
Paul McMullan19%
Mark Connolly18%
Kevin Holt17%
Ronan Boyce17%
Alex Bannon17%
Robbie Benson15%
Michael Duffy15%
Pat Hoban14%
Sean Patton11%
Sam Todd10%
Dominic Thomas8%
Gavin Whyte7%
Brian Maher6%
Brandon Fleming0%
Adam Frizzell0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Afolabi Akinyemi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Michael Duffy24%
Dominic Thomas23%
Brandon Fleming17%
Afolabi Akinyemi14%
Paul McMullan12%
Gavin Whyte11%
Jamie Stott10%
Shane Ferguson8%
Robbie Benson7%
Sam Todd7%
Carl Winchester7%
Liam Boyce4%
Hayden Cann4%
Danny Mullen4%
Ronan Boyce3%
Adam O'Reilly3%
Kevin Holt0%
Adam Frizzell0%
Mark Connolly0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Pat Hoban0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Ben Doherty0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Alex Bannon0%
Sean Patton0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Afolabi Akinyemi43%
Michael Duffy35%
Alex Bannon17%
Danny Mullen12%
Liam Boyce9%
Brandon Fleming8%
Dominic Thomas8%
Adam O'Reilly3%
Mark Connolly3%
Kevin Holt0%
Carl Winchester0%
Shane Ferguson0%
Gavin Whyte0%
Adam Frizzell0%
Paul McMullan0%
Jamie Stott0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Robbie Benson0%
Pat Hoban0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Sam Todd0%
Ben Doherty0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Hayden Cann0%
Sean Patton0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City have a similar squad value (both €5m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City have a similar attack value (both €2m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
CC (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Shamrock Rovers
Shelbourne
Bohemians
Drogheda United
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
Galway United
Cork City
Bray Wanderers