St Patrick's Athl. are expected to emerge victorious against Derry City, with a 58% probability of a home win, 27% chance of a draw, and 15% likelihood of an away win. The match is expected to be a low-scoring affair with an average of 2.3 goals, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The model's selection is a home win, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0, occurring with a probability of 14.7%. St Patrick's Athl. have been scoring 1.64 goals on average at home, conceding 0.55, while Derry City have been scoring 1.17 goals away, conceding 1.25. The model suggests selecting Under 3.5 goals, which is predicted to occur 79.7% of the time, and Over 3.5 cards, which has a 79.1% probability. Home win percentage is 58%, draw percentage is 27%, and away win percentage is 15%. The model's suggested picks include Under 3.5 at 79.7%, and Over 3.5 cards at 79.1%.
Results analysis
St Patrick's Athl. extended their unbeaten run to six matches with a 1-1 draw against Derry City. The result was a major upset as the home team was the pre-match favourite, with a 58% probability of winning. Unfortunately, the model's selection, a Home win, was incorrect. The model's call was a long shot, given the low probability of a Derry City win, just 15%. However, the model's selection did not come to fruition. The suggested picks, which included Under 3.5 goals and Over 3.5 cards, both hit, with probabilities of 79.7% and 79.1% respectively. The final score was a 1-1 draw, matching the most likely outcome, with a probability of 28%.
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. winâ Miss
57.7%
Avg Implied 53.6% · @ 1.73
Edge
+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.81
Dafabet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Betfair
1.75
Drawâ Hit
27.0%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.48
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.75
Betfair
3.60
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Dafabet
3.50
Derry City winâ Miss
15.2%
Avg Implied 19.7% · @ 4.70
Edge
-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.07
Marathonbet
4.90
10Bet
4.90
1xBet
4.85
888Sport
4.75
â― 2. Goal Analysis
St Patrick's Athl.
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.77
2.00
0.53
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.13
0.78
1.64
0.55
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
2.29
0.71
3.00
0.50
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.13
1.60
1.13
1.00
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.36
1.32
1.55
1.27
1.18
1.36
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.62
1.75
0.75
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.4%
@ 1.34-1.0%
Under 1.5
31.6%
@ 3.04+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Pinnacle
3.14
Unibet
3.05
888Sport
3.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.8%
@ 2.08-4.3%
Under 2.5
59.2%
@ 1.71+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.16
Pinnacle
2.16
Marathonbet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
SBO
1.72
Unibet
1.71
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.3%
@ 3.70-4.8%
Under 3.5
79.7%
@ 1.24+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.92
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
10Bet
3.80
888Sport
3.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
41.7%
@ 1.95-5.9%
No
58.3%
@ 1.77+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
No
888Sport
1.83
William Hil
1.83
Betfair
1.80
Unibet
1.80
Bet365
1.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.7%@ 5.77+7.1%
2-0
12.7%@ 7.29+6.6%
1-1 â
12.4%@ 6.32+5.4%
0-0
11.0%@ 8.32+5.7%
2-1
9.0%@ 7.72+3.3%
3-0
6.8%@ 12.63+3.3%
0-1
5.9%@ 10.61+1.7%
3-1
4.8%@ 14.02+1.7%
St Patrick's Athl. goals ↓
Derry City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
5.9%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
1
15%
12%
4.0%
0.9%
0.2%
2
13%
9.0%
3.2%
0.8%
0.1%
3
6.8%
4.8%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.7%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = St Patrick's Athl. goals (down), columns = Derry City goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
2.00
St Patrick's Athl.
1.79
Bohemians
1.68
Dundalk
1.32
Shelbourne
1.31
Galway United
1.22
Derry City
1.18
Waterford
1.04
Drogheda United
1.00
Sligo Rovers
0.82
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.61 points better than Derry City in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 1.18).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bohemians
1.68
St Patrick's Athl.
1.61
Shamrock Rovers
1.59
Dundalk
1.54
Shelbourne
1.38
Derry City
1.36
Waterford
1.32
Galway United
1.30
Drogheda United
1.11
Sligo Rovers
0.82
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.25 goals better than Derry City in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.36).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.82
Shamrock Rovers
0.89
Bohemians
1.21
Derry City
1.32
Shelbourne
1.46
Galway United
1.52
Dundalk
1.54
Sligo Rovers
1.61
Drogheda United
1.61
Waterford
1.71
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.50 goals better than Derry City in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.32).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
63%
Bohemians
58%
St Patrick's Athl.
54%
Derry City
54%
Shelbourne
53%
Dundalk
52%
Sligo Rovers
47%
Drogheda United
40%
Galway United
39%
Waterford
39%
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.2 percentage points better than Derry City in terms of average possession (54% vs 54%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
St Patrick's Athl.
For 6.4 · Against 5.0 · Total 11.4
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 3.6 · Total 5.4
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 13.4 · Total 23.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derry City
For 5.7 · Against 4.4 · Total 10.1
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 5.3
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.9
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
St Patrick's Athl.
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.0
10.4
4.3
4.3
4.4
23.1
23.7
22.5
vs Stronger (2)
3.5
5.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
vs Similar (35)
10.1
9.9
10.4
4.8
5.0
4.6
23.2
24.1
22.2
vs Weaker (13)
11.4
11.0
11.8
3.5
2.9
4.2
23.3
23.0
23.7
% over line
60%
57%
64%
62%
54%
71%
60%
65%
55%
% under line
40%
43%
36%
38%
46%
29%
40%
35%
45%
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.8
9.9
5.2
4.4
5.9
23.0
22.3
23.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
8.8
8.8
8.8
5.5
4.6
6.4
24.4
23.4
25.5
vs Weaker (13)
10.8
8.8
12.4
4.3
3.8
4.7
19.3
18.7
19.9
% over line
41%
28%
54%
72%
60%
84%
65%
60%
71%
% under line
59%
72%
46%
28%
40%
16%
35%
40%
29%
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sligo Rovers
11.1
Waterford
10.9
Dundalk
10.4
Galway United
10.4
Drogheda United
10.2
St Patrick's Athl.
10.2
Bohemians
9.9
Shelbourne
9.5
Derry City
9.3
Shamrock Rovers
8.4
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Derry City
5.3
Dundalk
5.0
St Patrick's Athl.
5.0
Shamrock Rovers
5.0
Shelbourne
4.9
Waterford
4.8
Bohemians
4.8
Galway United
4.7
Drogheda United
4.5
Sligo Rovers
4.2
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dundalk
23.1
Bohemians
23.0
Derry City
23.0
St Patrick's Athl.
22.9
Galway United
22.8
Waterford
22.7
Shamrock Rovers
22.2
Drogheda United
21.7
Shelbourne
21.5
Sligo Rovers
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.8%
@ 1.72+1.8%
Under 9.5
44.2%
@ 2.01-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.75
Superbet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.01
10Bet
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
74.2%
Under 3.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
62.8%
Under 21.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
St Patrick's Athl.
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.87
0.47
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.43
0.91
0.45
0.17
0.42
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.57
0.75
0.50
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.40
0.53
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.55
0.36
0.64
0.73
0.45
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
0.25
0.50
0.25
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
St Patrick's Athl.
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.30
1.13
0.07
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.35
0.73
0.09
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.14
2.25
0.00
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
80% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
1.20
0.60
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.77
1.18
0.64
0.45
0.91
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.38
1.25
0.50
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
79.7%
1.24
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
+4.8%
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð° 13. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (21)
€5m
DC (21)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City have a similar squad value (both €5m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City have a similar attack value (both €2m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
SPA (8)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shamrock Rovers
Bohemians
Dundalk
Shelbourne
Galway United
Waterford
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers