St Patrick’s Athl. look set to defend their home turf in a tight, low-scoring affair. Their recent form, after a loss to Waterford, shows a cautious approach, while Dundalk, fresh from a win over Drogheda United, have struggled to find the net on the road. The model favours a home win, with a 49% chance of victory, a 32% draw probability and a 19% chance of an away win. The expected total is 2.0 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0 for St Patrick’s Athl., a 16.4% probability. St Patrick’s average 1.5 goals at home against similar opponents, conceding just 0.88, contrasts with Dundalk’s 0.83 away goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The only suggested pick is Under 3.5, with an 86% probability. The model’s selection highlights a defensive, low-scoring match, with St Patrick’s Athl. the clear favourite.
Results analysis
St Patrick's Athl. extended their recent form after a defeat, while Dundalk came off a win. The model’s favourite, a home win, proved correct as the match finished 2-1 in favour of the hosts. The pre-match probability for a home victory was 49 percent, and the model’s prediction hit the mark. The single suggested pick, Under 3.5 goals, had an 86 percent chance and also hit, with the total of three goals fitting the model’s expectation. All selections settled as predicted, confirming the model’s accuracy for this encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. win✓ Hit
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dundalk win✗ Miss
19.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
St Patrick's Athl.
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.40
1.57
0.79
1.81
1.94
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.68
1.68
1.50
0.88
1.82
2.27
vs Weaker (10)
1.90
0.80
2.00
0.40
1.80
1.20
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundalk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.27
1.88
1.38
0.86
1.14
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.50
0.00
4.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
1.42
1.15
1.93
1.29
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
3.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
60.2%
Under 1.5
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
31.9%
Under 2.5
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.0%
Under 3.5
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
37.6%
No
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
16.4%
0-0
15.0%
1-1
13.6%
2-0
11.3%
0-1
8.4%
2-1 ✓
7.9%
3-0
4.8%
1-2
4.3%
St Patrick's Athl. goals ↓
Dundalk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
8.4%
3.4%
0.8%
0.1%
1
16%
14%
4.3%
1.0%
0.2%
2
11%
7.9%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
3
4.8%
3.4%
1.2%
0.3%
0.0%
4
1.6%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = St Patrick's Athl. goals (down), columns = Dundalk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
2.00
Derry City
1.81
St Patrick's Athl.
1.72
Shelbourne
1.67
Dundalk
1.61
Bohemians
1.61
Drogheda United
1.14
Sligo Rovers
1.03
Waterford
1.00
Cork City
0.86
UCD
0.31
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.11 points better than Dundalk in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.61).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.86
Dundalk
1.64
St Patrick's Athl.
1.64
Derry City
1.58
Bohemians
1.47
Shelbourne
1.22
Drogheda United
1.11
Sligo Rovers
1.00
Waterford
1.00
Cork City
0.97
UCD
0.53
St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk are level in goals scored per game (both 1.64).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Derry City
0.67
Shelbourne
0.75
Shamrock Rovers
0.75
Waterford
1.00
Bohemians
1.11
St Patrick's Athl.
1.17
Dundalk
1.22
Sligo Rovers
1.42
Drogheda United
1.50
Cork City
1.76
UCD
2.67
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.06 goals better than Dundalk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
60%
Bohemians
57%
Dundalk
56%
Derry City
56%
Shelbourne
53%
Sligo Rovers
49%
St Patrick's Athl.
46%
Cork City
45%
Drogheda United
40%
UCD
38%
St Patrick's Athl. is 9.9 percentage points worse than Dundalk in terms of average possession (46% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
St Patrick's Athl.
For 4.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 6.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 10.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dundalk
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
St Patrick's Athl.
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.5
11.0
0.5
0.4
0.5
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
8.0
6.0
10.0
8.0
10.0
6.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
12.5
13.0
12.0
0.2
0.0
0.4
-
-
-
vs Weaker (16)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
75%
50%
100%
6%
4%
8%
-
-
-
% under line
25%
50%
0%
94%
96%
92%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundalk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (42)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sligo Rovers
10.8
St Patrick's Athl.
10.2
Shamrock Rovers
9.4
Derry City
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
St Patrick's Athl.
7.7
Derry City
6.0
Shamrock Rovers
5.8
Sligo Rovers
4.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shamrock Rovers
23.2
Sligo Rovers
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
St Patrick's Athl.
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
0.71
0.36
0.94
0.88
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.95
0.68
0.75
0.38
1.09
0.91
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.50
0.80
0.20
0.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundalk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
1.06
0.56
0.43
0.36
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.38
1.00
0.50
0.33
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
St Patrick's Athl.
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.77
0.86
0.43
0.88
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.74
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.73
1.36
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
0.30
1.20
0.20
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundalk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.81
0.81
0.43
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.77
0.93
0.79
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
St Patrick's Athl.
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jake Mulraney18%
Joe Redmond18%
Mason Melia17%
Mark Doyle15%
Conor Carty15%
Christopher Forrester14%
Kian Leavy11%
Sam Curtis8%
Tom Lonergan8%
Harry Brockbank0%
Eoin Doyle0%
Thijs Timmermans0%
David Norman0%
Jamie Lennon0%
Jason McClelland0%
Anto Breslin0%
Dean Lyness0%
Ben McCormack0%
John-Alan McGrath0%
Alex Nolan0%
Adam Murphy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
John-Alan McGrath50%
Jamie Lennon45%
Thijs Timmermans33%
Jake Mulraney27%
Sam Curtis25%
Mason Melia17%
Mark Doyle15%
Conor Carty15%
Christopher Forrester14%
Anto Breslin14%
David Norman12%
Alex Nolan12%
Ben McCormack11%
Tom Lonergan8%
Adam Murphy8%
Harry Brockbank0%
Eoin Doyle0%
Jason McClelland0%
Dean Lyness0%
Joe Redmond0%
Kian Leavy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jamie Lennon27%
Jake Mulraney9%
Joe Redmond9%
Sam Curtis8%
Adam Murphy8%
Christopher Forrester7%
Dean Lyness7%
Harry Brockbank0%
Eoin Doyle0%
Thijs Timmermans0%
David Norman0%
Jason McClelland0%
Mark Doyle0%
Anto Breslin0%
Ben McCormack0%
Conor Carty0%
Kian Leavy0%
John-Alan McGrath0%
Alex Nolan0%
Tom Lonergan0%
Mason Melia0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamie Lennon18%
Conor Carty15%
Christopher Forrester14%
Kian Leavy11%
Jake Mulraney9%
Mark Doyle8%
Harry Brockbank0%
Eoin Doyle0%
Thijs Timmermans0%
David Norman0%
Jason McClelland0%
Anto Breslin0%
Dean Lyness0%
Joe Redmond0%
Sam Curtis0%
Ben McCormack0%
John-Alan McGrath0%
Alex Nolan0%
Tom Lonergan0%
Adam Murphy0%
Mason Melia0%
Dundalk
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Daniel Kelly43%
Pat Hoban33%
Daryl Horgan27%
Paul Doyle25%
Sam Durrant20%
John Martin17%
Louie Annesley11%
Johannes Yli-Kokko10%
Connor Malley8%
Hayden Muller7%
Andy Boyle0%
Darren Brownlie0%
Robbie Benson0%
Darragh Leahy0%
Robert McCourt0%
Keith Ward0%
Gregory Sloggett0%
Ryan O'Kane0%
Archie Davies0%
Cameron Elliott0%
Alfie Lewis0%
Nathan Shepperd0%
Senan Mullen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Louie Annesley56%
Robbie Benson43%
Daniel Kelly36%
Archie Davies33%
Darren Brownlie29%
Hayden Muller29%
Senan Mullen25%
Gregory Sloggett21%
Pat Hoban20%
Johannes Yli-Kokko20%
Daryl Horgan18%
Connor Malley17%
Andy Boyle17%
Robert McCourt17%
Darragh Leahy14%
Cameron Elliott10%
Sam Durrant10%
John Martin8%
Paul Doyle8%
Keith Ward0%
Ryan O'Kane0%
Alfie Lewis0%
Nathan Shepperd0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Archie Davies40%
Keith Ward33%
Cameron Elliott20%
Daryl Horgan18%
Robert McCourt17%
Paul Doyle17%
Pat Hoban13%
Connor Malley8%
Daniel Kelly7%
Andy Boyle0%
Darren Brownlie0%
Louie Annesley0%
Robbie Benson0%
Darragh Leahy0%
Gregory Sloggett0%
John Martin0%
Ryan O'Kane0%
Alfie Lewis0%
Johannes Yli-Kokko0%
Hayden Muller0%
Nathan Shepperd0%
Sam Durrant0%
Senan Mullen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pat Hoban20%
Daryl Horgan18%
John Martin17%
Cameron Elliott10%
Johannes Yli-Kokko10%
Ryan O'Kane8%
Daniel Kelly7%
Connor Malley0%
Andy Boyle0%
Darren Brownlie0%
Louie Annesley0%
Robbie Benson0%
Darragh Leahy0%
Robert McCourt0%
Keith Ward0%
Gregory Sloggett0%
Paul Doyle0%
Archie Davies0%
Alfie Lewis0%
Hayden Muller0%
Nathan Shepperd0%
Sam Durrant0%
Senan Mullen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
CC (2)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl.'s squad is €2m more valuable than Dundalk's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl.'s attack is €1m more valuable than Dundalk's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
CC (0)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
Shelbourne
Bohemians
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers
Cork City
UCD
Waterford