St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk Result & Analysis

St Patrick’s Athl. are favoured to lift the trophy at home, with the model predicting a 57% chance of a win, a 26% chance of a draw and a 17% chance of an away victory. The match is expected to see about 2.5 goals, with the most likely total being two goals. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for the home side, a 12.9% probability. St Patrick’s Athl. have scored an average of one goal and conceded 1.09 at home against teams of similar strength, while Dundalk, playing away, have averaged 1.08 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 91.5%, Over 19.5 fouls at 91.5%, Under 11.5 corners at 83.8%, Over 21.5 fouls at 82.9%, Over 3.5 cards at 80.5%, Under 3.5 at 76.3%, Under 10.5 corners at 74.9% and Over 1.5 at 71.9%. The home side’s recent form shows a 0-2 loss to Waterford, while Dundalk come off a 3-2 win over Drogheda United.

The upset came early, as St Patrick's Athl. fell short of the pre-match favourite, the model's pick for a home win at 57%. The final score was 2-3, giving an away win and proving the model wrong. The model had also predicted a 2-goal total, the most likely scoreline 1-0, 1-1 or 2-0, but the match produced three goals. Every suggested pick was settled: Over 2.5 cards hit at 91.5%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 91.5%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 83.8%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 82.9%, Over 3.5 cards hit at 80.5%, Under 3.5 missed at 76.3%, Under 10.5 corners hit at 74.9%, and Over 1.5 hit at 71.9%. The home side’s recent form, after a defeat, and the away side’s recent win, set the stage for a surprising result.