This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.70
1.50
0.93
1.31
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.40
0.70
1.50
0.93
1.31
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
58.9%
Under 1.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
30.6%
Under 2.5
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.1%
Under 3.5
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
39.7%
No
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.8%
1-1
14.9%
1-0
13.0%
0-1
12.2%
2-0
7.2%
2-1
6.7%
0-2
6.4%
1-2 â
6.3%
St Patrick's Athl. goals ↓
Shelbourne goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
12%
6.4%
2.0%
0.5%
1
13%
15%
6.3%
2.0%
0.5%
2
7.2%
6.7%
3.2%
1.0%
0.2%
3
2.4%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = St Patrick's Athl. goals (down), columns = Shelbourne goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shelbourne
1.75
Shamrock Rovers
1.69
St Patrick's Athl.
1.64
Derry City
1.53
Galway United
1.44
Sligo Rovers
1.36
Waterford
1.25
Bohemians
1.17
Drogheda United
1.00
Dundalk
0.72
Bray Wanderers
0.00
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.11 points worse than Shelbourne in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.75).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Patrick's Athl.
1.42
Shamrock Rovers
1.39
Derry City
1.33
Waterford
1.19
Drogheda United
1.19
Shelbourne
1.11
Sligo Rovers
1.11
Bohemians
1.08
Bray Wanderers
1.00
Galway United
0.92
Dundalk
0.64
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.31 goals better than Shelbourne in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.11).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shelbourne
0.75
Galway United
0.81
Derry City
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.97
St Patrick's Athl.
1.03
Bohemians
1.19
Waterford
1.31
Dundalk
1.39
Sligo Rovers
1.42
Drogheda United
1.59
Bray Wanderers
3.00
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.28 goals worse than Shelbourne in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 0.75).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Derry City
56%
Shelbourne
53%
St Patrick's Athl.
53%
Bohemians
52%
Waterford
50%
Dundalk
48%
Sligo Rovers
48%
Drogheda United
39%
Galway United
39%
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.8 percentage points worse than Shelbourne in terms of average possession (53% vs 53%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
St Patrick's Athl.
For 4.3 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.8
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.3
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 13.8 · Total 25.6
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shelbourne
For 4.8 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.1
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 3.7 · Total 6.1
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 15.4 · Total 26.4
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
St Patrick's Athl.
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.0
10.2
2.5
2.8
2.3
25.5
25.6
25.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
9.4
8.8
10.1
2.6
2.7
2.5
25.8
26.4
25.1
vs Weaker (13)
7.8
6.0
10.5
2.5
3.0
2.0
24.8
23.7
26.5
% over line
43%
45%
40%
38%
42%
35%
71%
73%
70%
% under line
57%
55%
60%
62%
58%
65%
29%
27%
30%
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
9.4
8.3
2.5
2.2
2.8
26.2
27.1
25.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (49)
8.8
9.4
8.3
2.6
2.2
3.0
26.2
27.1
25.5
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
38%
33%
42%
32%
24%
40%
81%
89%
75%
% under line
62%
67%
58%
68%
76%
60%
19%
11%
25%
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bohemians
11.3
Shamrock Rovers
10.3
Waterford
10.2
Derry City
10.0
Drogheda United
9.9
Galway United
9.4
St Patrick's Athl.
9.2
Shelbourne
8.8
Sligo Rovers
8.7
Dundalk
7.8
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
St Patrick's Athl.
6.2
Shelbourne
6.0
Sligo Rovers
5.6
Bohemians
5.5
Waterford
5.3
Derry City
5.3
Dundalk
5.3
Shamrock Rovers
4.9
Galway United
4.8
Drogheda United
4.1
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dundalk
27.8
Sligo Rovers
27.2
Galway United
26.2
Shelbourne
26.2
St Patrick's Athl.
25.5
Waterford
24.8
Bohemians
24.7
Derry City
24.0
Shamrock Rovers
23.2
Drogheda United
21.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
38.1%
Under 9.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
85.1%
Under 3.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
81.6%
Under 21.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
St Patrick's Athl.
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.37
0.64
0.14
0.75
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.32
0.60
0.10
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.50
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.30
0.64
0.36
0.44
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.53
0.30
0.64
0.36
0.44
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
St Patrick's Athl.
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
1.21
0.71
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.95
0.86
1.40
0.80
0.58
0.92
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.38
0.75
0.50
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.40
0.86
0.57
0.88
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.87
0.40
0.86
0.57
0.88
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 10.5 corners
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 4.5 cards
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
St Patrick's Athl.
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aidan Keena50%
Ruairi Keating18%
Jake Mulraney16%
Mason Melia16%
Brandon Kavanagh15%
Al-Amin Kazeem14%
Joe Redmond13%
Zachary Elbouzedi10%
Alex Nolan9%
Christopher Forrester9%
Tom Grivosti8%
Luke Turner7%
Jamie Lennon6%
Cian Kavanagh6%
Romal Palmer6%
Conor Keeley5%
Jason McClelland5%
Anto Breslin3%
Ryan McLaughlin0%
Danny Rogers0%
Aaron Bolger0%
Axel Sjoberg0%
Kieran Freeman0%
Joseph Anang0%
Marcelo Pitaluga0%
Kian Leavy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcelo Pitaluga50%
Ryan McLaughlin40%
Tom Grivosti38%
Jamie Lennon33%
Conor Keeley32%
Christopher Forrester20%
Joe Redmond19%
Aaron Bolger18%
Anto Breslin17%
Luke Turner15%
Al-Amin Kazeem14%
Alex Nolan14%
Axel Sjoberg11%
Romal Palmer11%
Mason Melia10%
Ruairi Keating9%
Jake Mulraney6%
Brandon Kavanagh6%
Cian Kavanagh6%
Danny Rogers5%
Kian Leavy3%
Aidan Keena0%
Zachary Elbouzedi0%
Jason McClelland0%
Kieran Freeman0%
Joseph Anang0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Brandon Kavanagh30%
Zachary Elbouzedi30%
Jake Mulraney13%
Christopher Forrester9%
Tom Grivosti8%
Joe Redmond6%
Cian Kavanagh6%
Axel Sjoberg6%
Romal Palmer6%
Conor Keeley5%
Jason McClelland5%
Anto Breslin3%
Mason Melia3%
Kian Leavy3%
Jamie Lennon3%
Ryan McLaughlin0%
Aidan Keena0%
Danny Rogers0%
Ruairi Keating0%
Aaron Bolger0%
Luke Turner0%
Kieran Freeman0%
Joseph Anang0%
Al-Amin Kazeem0%
Marcelo Pitaluga0%
Alex Nolan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ruairi Keating23%
Brandon Kavanagh21%
Aidan Keena20%
Zachary Elbouzedi10%
Christopher Forrester9%
Jake Mulraney6%
Jamie Lennon3%
Ryan McLaughlin0%
Danny Rogers0%
Tom Grivosti0%
Cian Kavanagh0%
Jason McClelland0%
Anto Breslin0%
Conor Keeley0%
Aaron Bolger0%
Axel Sjoberg0%
Joe Redmond0%
Luke Turner0%
Kieran Freeman0%
Joseph Anang0%
Al-Amin Kazeem0%
Marcelo Pitaluga0%
Romal Palmer0%
Kian Leavy0%
Alex Nolan0%
Mason Melia0%
Shelbourne
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sean Boyd30%
Will Jarvis22%
Aiden O'Brien14%
John Martin13%
Rayhaan Tulloch9%
Evan Caffrey9%
Alistair Coote7%
Harry Wood7%
Liam Burt6%
Matthew Smith6%
Mark Coyle6%
Gavin Molloy5%
John O'Sullivan4%
Tyreke Wilson3%
Sean Gannon0%
Sam Bone0%
Jonathan Lunney0%
Shane Griffin0%
Conor Kearns0%
Shane Farrell0%
Dean Williams0%
Paddy Barrett0%
Kameron Ledwidge0%
Jad Hakiki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mark Coyle50%
Sean Gannon41%
Paddy Barrett34%
John Martin33%
Shane Griffin31%
John O'Sullivan28%
Shane Farrell24%
Sean Boyd22%
Jonathan Lunney22%
Alistair Coote21%
Harry Wood21%
Liam Burt16%
Matthew Smith16%
Tyreke Wilson14%
Evan Caffrey14%
Dean Williams13%
Kameron Ledwidge9%
Conor Kearns5%
Rayhaan Tulloch0%
Aiden O'Brien0%
Sam Bone0%
Gavin Molloy0%
Will Jarvis0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Will Jarvis15%
John Martin10%
Tyreke Wilson9%
Sean Boyd7%
Harry Wood7%
Matthew Smith6%
Shane Farrell6%
Evan Caffrey6%
Liam Burt3%
Sean Gannon3%
Jonathan Lunney3%
Mark Coyle3%
Paddy Barrett3%
Conor Kearns3%
Rayhaan Tulloch0%
Aiden O'Brien0%
John O'Sullivan0%
Sam Bone0%
Shane Griffin0%
Dean Williams0%
Alistair Coote0%
Kameron Ledwidge0%
Gavin Molloy0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sean Boyd19%
Will Jarvis19%
Aiden O'Brien14%
Alistair Coote7%
Harry Wood7%
Liam Burt6%
Evan Caffrey6%
Mark Coyle3%
Paddy Barrett3%
Rayhaan Tulloch0%
John O'Sullivan0%
Matthew Smith0%
Sean Gannon0%
Sam Bone0%
Jonathan Lunney0%
John Martin0%
Shane Griffin0%
Conor Kearns0%
Shane Farrell0%
Dean Williams0%
Tyreke Wilson0%
Kameron Ledwidge0%
Gavin Molloy0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
BW (1)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl.'s squad is €1m more valuable than Shelbourne's (€5m vs €4m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne have a similar attack value (both €2m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
BW (0)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
Galway United
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
Bohemians
Drogheda United
Dundalk
Bray Wanderers