Stabaek, on a 2-game winning run, hosts Lyn in a Norway: 1. Division match. The home side has averaged 2 goals scored and 1.79 conceded at home, while Lyn has averaged 2.33 scored and 1.83 conceded away from home against similar opponents. This setup suggests a high-scoring encounter, with an expected total of 3.5 goals. The most likely total goals is 3, and the most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a 10.4% probability.
Stabaek is the favourite to win, with a 41% probability, while Lyn has a 35% chance of winning. The draw is the least likely outcome, with a 24% chance.
The model's selection is the home win, and it also suggests Over 1.5 goals, which has an 86.8% probability.
Results analysis
Stabaek's 4-3 victory over Lyn extends their run of three consecutive wins, and it's a welcome boost after a recent loss. The final score was a thrilling 4-3, which is consistent with the most likely outcome according to the model, a 1-2 Stabaek win. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 41%. The model's call was correct, and it's a testament to the model's accuracy. The model's selection, Stabaek to win, was the favourite. The model's suggested picks largely came in, with the 'Over 1.5' selection hitting, boasting a pre-match probability of 86.8%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stabaek win✓ Hit
41.2%
Avg Implied 65.6% · @ 1.40
Edge
-24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.46
Betano
1.44
SBO
1.42
Bet365
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Draw✗ Miss
24.3%
Avg Implied 18.4% · @ 5.00
Edge
+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
5.50
Pinnacle
5.46
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
5.20
Dafabet
5.20
Lyn win✗ Miss
34.5%
Avg Implied 16.1% · @ 5.71
Edge
+18.5%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
6.50
Pinnacle
6.29
1xBet
6.17
Marathonbet
6.15
Betfair
6.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stabaek
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.87
2.14
1.93
1.81
1.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.55
2.41
1.73
2.45
1.36
2.36
vs Weaker (8)
3.12
0.38
3.67
0.00
2.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.30
1.62
1.38
2.00
1.24
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.68
1.32
1.55
1.36
1.79
1.29
vs Weaker (5)
2.60
1.20
2.00
1.50
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Stabaek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.8%
@ 1.07-0.1%
Under 1.5
13.2%
@ 7.13+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Under
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
888Sport
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.0%
@ 1.29-4.9%
Under 2.5
33.0%
@ 3.30+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.60
Pinnacle
3.48
BetVictor
3.40
10Bet
3.35
888Sport
3.30
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.3%
@ 1.77-7.6%
Under 3.5
54.7%
@ 1.98+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.83
Unibet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Under
Betfair
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.4%
@ 1.43+4.1%
No
31.6%
@ 2.58-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
William Hil
1.44
Bet365
1.44
888Sport
1.44
No
BetVictor
2.70
1xBet
2.63
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.58
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%@ 10.09+6.0%
2-1
8.5%@ 7.94+2.9%
1-2
7.7%@ 16.18+5.0%
2-2
7.0%@ 12.20+3.4%
2-0
5.2%@ 9.65+0.6%
3-1
5.1%@ 9.21+0.3%
1-0
4.8%@ 12.05+1.1%
0-2
4.3%@ 38.42+3.1%
Stabaek goals ↓
Lyn goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
4.3%
4.3%
2.4%
1.0%
1
4.8%
10%
7.7%
4.2%
1.7%
2
5.2%
8.5%
7.0%
3.8%
1.6%
3
3.1%
5.1%
4.2%
2.3%
0.9%
4
1.4%
2.3%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stabaek goals (down), columns = Lyn goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Ranheim
0.50
Raufoss
0.50
Moss
0.29
Stabaek is 0.67 points better than Lyn in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Stabaek is 0.50 goals better than Lyn in terms of goals scored per game (3.50 vs 3.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Stabaek is 1.00 goals better than Lyn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stabaek
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.00
0.71
0.88
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.91
0.82
0.73
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.25
1.67
0.00
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
0.85
0.85
0.76
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.64
0.91
0.91
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.80
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Stabaek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stabaek over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stabaek over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stabaek over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stabaek
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.20
1.14
1.21
0.94
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
1.59
0.91
1.55
0.55
1.64
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
0.12
2.00
0.00
1.80
0.20
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.63
0.77
0.54
1.24
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.88
0.68
0.64
0.45
1.07
0.86
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.40
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Stabaek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stabaek over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stabaek over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stabaek over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.8%
1.07
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-0.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stabaek · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kasper Høgh36%
Mushaga Bakenga24%
Simen Wangberg15%
Kevin Kabran15%
Kaloyan Kalinov Kostadinov8%
Rasmus Eggen Vinge8%
Curtis Edwards7%
Nikolas Walstad5%
Kasper Pedersen4%
Sturla Ottesen4%
Nicolai Naess3%
Gaute Hoberg Vetti0%
Tobias Pachonik0%
Andreas Skovgaard0%
Fredrik Haugen0%
Nicolas Pignatel Jenssen0%
Fredrik Krogstad0%
Jonatan Lucca0%
Isak Pettersson0%
Herman Geelmuyden0%
Keegan Jelacic0%
Aleksander Andresen0%
Luca Kjerrumgaard0%
Oskar Spiten-Nysaether0%
Sebastian Olderheim0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Herman Geelmuyden27%
Andreas Skovgaard18%
Jonatan Lucca18%
Simen Wangberg15%
Fredrik Krogstad11%
Curtis Edwards11%
Kaloyan Kalinov Kostadinov8%
Rasmus Eggen Vinge8%
Kasper Høgh7%
Nicolai Naess7%
Mushaga Bakenga7%
Kevin Kabran5%
Nikolas Walstad5%
Isak Pettersson3%
Gaute Hoberg Vetti0%
Kasper Pedersen0%
Tobias Pachonik0%
Fredrik Haugen0%
Nicolas Pignatel Jenssen0%
Sturla Ottesen0%
Keegan Jelacic0%
Aleksander Andresen0%
Luca Kjerrumgaard0%
Oskar Spiten-Nysaether0%
Sebastian Olderheim0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rasmus Eggen Vinge15%
Nikolas Walstad14%
Fredrik Krogstad11%
Nicolai Naess10%
Kasper Høgh7%
Sturla Ottesen7%
Mushaga Bakenga7%
Kevin Kabran5%
Kaloyan Kalinov Kostadinov4%
Kasper Pedersen4%
Gaute Hoberg Vetti0%
Tobias Pachonik0%
Andreas Skovgaard0%
Fredrik Haugen0%
Nicolas Pignatel Jenssen0%
Simen Wangberg0%
Jonatan Lucca0%
Curtis Edwards0%
Isak Pettersson0%
Herman Geelmuyden0%
Keegan Jelacic0%
Aleksander Andresen0%
Luca Kjerrumgaard0%
Oskar Spiten-Nysaether0%
Sebastian Olderheim0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kasper Høgh29%
Mushaga Bakenga17%
Luca Kjerrumgaard9%
Fredrik Haugen8%
Simen Wangberg8%
Kevin Kabran5%
Fredrik Krogstad4%
Nicolai Naess3%
Gaute Hoberg Vetti0%
Kasper Pedersen0%
Tobias Pachonik0%
Andreas Skovgaard0%
Nicolas Pignatel Jenssen0%
Jonatan Lucca0%
Curtis Edwards0%
Isak Pettersson0%
Nikolas Walstad0%
Kaloyan Kalinov Kostadinov0%
Herman Geelmuyden0%
Sturla Ottesen0%
Keegan Jelacic0%
Aleksander Andresen0%
Rasmus Eggen Vinge0%
Oskar Spiten-Nysaether0%
Sebastian Olderheim0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Stabaek's squad is €5m more valuable than Lyn's (€9m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Stabaek's attack is €4m more valuable than Lyn's (€5m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Stabaek and Lyn have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Stabaek's defence is €1m more valuable than Lyn's (€3m vs €1m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Haugesund
hodd
Kongsvinger
Stromsgodset
Bryne
Egersund
Strommen
ODD Ballklubb
Sogndal
Asane
Sandnes ULF
Ranheim
Raufoss
Moss