Stabaek are the clear favourite, the model rating them at 64% for a home win and picking that outcome as the most likely result. Their home form shows a solid attack, scoring 1.91 goals per game, but they concede 2.45, while Strommen’s away record is stronger defensively, conceding only 1.5 goals on the road. The expected total goals is 4.6, with the model most confident in a 6+ scoreline at 32%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Stabaek, with a 7.2% probability. The probabilities for the match result are 64% home win, 17% draw, and 19% away win. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 (95%), Home over 0.5 goals (94.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.3%), Home +2 handicap (91.3%), Under 7.5 (90.2%), Over 2.5 (84.1%), Home or Away (82.9%), and Under 6.5 (81.4%). Stabaek’s recent form, after a loss to Hodd, and Strommen’s two-game winning streak give the home side a clear edge, especially against an opponent whose venue performance is similar.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stabaek win
64.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
17.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Strommen win
18.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stabaek
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.83
2.29
1.93
2.00
1.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.73
2.32
1.91
2.45
1.55
2.18
vs Weaker (8)
3.25
0.50
3.67
0.00
3.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Strommen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Strommen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.38
1.92
1.86
2.29
3.00
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
4.00
5.00
4.00
5.00
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.70
1.70
1.50
1.83
2.00
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
5.00
1.50
-
-
5.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
15% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Stabaek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (32%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
95.0%
Under 1.5
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
84.2%
Under 2.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
68.1%
Under 3.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
77.3%
No
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
7.1%
3-1
7.1%
2-2
5.9%
3-2
5.9%
4-1
5.3%
1-1
5.3%
4-2
4.4%
2-0
4.3%
Stabaek goals ↓
Strommen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.4%
1.1%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
1
2.4%
5.3%
4.0%
2.2%
0.9%
2
4.3%
7.1%
5.9%
3.3%
1.4%
3
4.3%
7.1%
5.9%
3.3%
1.3%
4
3.2%
5.3%
4.4%
2.4%
1.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stabaek goals (down), columns = Strommen goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Raufoss
0.50
Ranheim
0.50
Moss
0.29
Stabaek is 0.83 points better than Strommen in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Stabaek is 1.50 goals better than Strommen in terms of goals scored per game (3.50 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Stabaek is 0.67 goals better than Strommen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stabaek or Draw
81.2%
Avg Implied -
64%
17%
19%
covers Stabaek + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stabaek or Strommen
82.9%
Avg Implied -
64%
17%
19%
covers Stabaek + Strommen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Strommen
35.8%
Avg Implied -
64%
17%
19%
covers Draw + Strommen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stabaek over/under 0.5
Over
94.9%
Under
5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stabaek over/under 1.5
Over
79.8%
Under
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stabaek over/under 2.5
Over
57.3%
Under
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stabaek over/under 3.5
Over
34.9%
Under
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strommen over/under 0.5
Over
80.9%
Under
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strommen over/under 1.5
Over
49.3%
Under
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strommen over/under 2.5
Over
23.1%
Under
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strommen over/under 3.5
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Stabaek, so a minus line means Stabaek give that many goals of a start and Strommen receive them. At -1, Stabaek must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stabaek win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Stabaek)
Stabaek -2
28.1%
Draw -2
17.5%
Strommen +2
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Stabaek)
Stabaek -1
45.7%
Draw -1
18.5%
Strommen +1
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Stabaek)
Stabaek +1
81.2%
Draw +1
10.1%
Strommen -1
8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Stabaek)
Stabaek +2
91.3%
Draw +2
5.4%
Strommen -2
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stabaek
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
0.93
0.86
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.91
0.73
1.09
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.12
1.67
0.00
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Strommen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Strommen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.85
1.00
0.71
1.29
1.00
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
0.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.80
0.83
0.83
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
54% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Stabaek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stabaek over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stabaek over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stabaek over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strommen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strommen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strommen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stabaek
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.13
1.36
1.07
1.19
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.00
1.41
1.18
1.36
0.82
1.45
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
0.38
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Strommen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Strommen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.54
0.92
1.14
1.00
2.00
0.83
vs Stronger (1)
4.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.90
0.67
1.00
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
1.00
-
-
3.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Stabaek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stabaek over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stabaek over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stabaek over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strommen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strommen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strommen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Over 1.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stabaek · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kasper Høgh36%
Mushaga Bakenga24%
Simen Wangberg15%
Kevin Kabran15%
Kaloyan Kalinov Kostadinov8%
Rasmus Eggen Vinge8%
Curtis Edwards7%
Nikolas Walstad5%
Kasper Pedersen4%
Sturla Ottesen4%
Nicolai Naess3%
Gaute Hoberg Vetti0%
Tobias Pachonik0%
Andreas Skovgaard0%
Fredrik Haugen0%
Nicolas Pignatel Jenssen0%
Fredrik Krogstad0%
Jonatan Lucca0%
Isak Pettersson0%
Herman Geelmuyden0%
Keegan Jelacic0%
Aleksander Andresen0%
Luca Kjerrumgaard0%
Oskar Spiten-Nysaether0%
Sebastian Olderheim0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Herman Geelmuyden27%
Andreas Skovgaard18%
Jonatan Lucca18%
Simen Wangberg15%
Fredrik Krogstad11%
Curtis Edwards11%
Kaloyan Kalinov Kostadinov8%
Rasmus Eggen Vinge8%
Kasper Høgh7%
Nicolai Naess7%
Mushaga Bakenga7%
Kevin Kabran5%
Nikolas Walstad5%
Isak Pettersson3%
Gaute Hoberg Vetti0%
Kasper Pedersen0%
Tobias Pachonik0%
Fredrik Haugen0%
Nicolas Pignatel Jenssen0%
Sturla Ottesen0%
Keegan Jelacic0%
Aleksander Andresen0%
Luca Kjerrumgaard0%
Oskar Spiten-Nysaether0%
Sebastian Olderheim0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rasmus Eggen Vinge15%
Nikolas Walstad14%
Fredrik Krogstad11%
Nicolai Naess10%
Kasper Høgh7%
Sturla Ottesen7%
Mushaga Bakenga7%
Kevin Kabran5%
Kaloyan Kalinov Kostadinov4%
Kasper Pedersen4%
Gaute Hoberg Vetti0%
Tobias Pachonik0%
Andreas Skovgaard0%
Fredrik Haugen0%
Nicolas Pignatel Jenssen0%
Simen Wangberg0%
Jonatan Lucca0%
Curtis Edwards0%
Isak Pettersson0%
Herman Geelmuyden0%
Keegan Jelacic0%
Aleksander Andresen0%
Luca Kjerrumgaard0%
Oskar Spiten-Nysaether0%
Sebastian Olderheim0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kasper Høgh29%
Mushaga Bakenga17%
Luca Kjerrumgaard9%
Fredrik Haugen8%
Simen Wangberg8%
Kevin Kabran5%
Fredrik Krogstad4%
Nicolai Naess3%
Gaute Hoberg Vetti0%
Kasper Pedersen0%
Tobias Pachonik0%
Andreas Skovgaard0%
Nicolas Pignatel Jenssen0%
Jonatan Lucca0%
Curtis Edwards0%
Isak Pettersson0%
Nikolas Walstad0%
Kaloyan Kalinov Kostadinov0%
Herman Geelmuyden0%
Sturla Ottesen0%
Keegan Jelacic0%
Aleksander Andresen0%
Rasmus Eggen Vinge0%
Oskar Spiten-Nysaether0%
Sebastian Olderheim0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Stabaek's squad is €8m more valuable than Strommen's (€9m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Stabaek's attack is €5m more valuable than Strommen's (€5m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Stabaek's midfield is €1m more valuable than Strommen's (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Stabaek's defence is €2m more valuable than Strommen's (€3m vs €1m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Haugesund
hodd
Kongsvinger
Stromsgodset
Bryne
Lyn
Egersund
ODD Ballklubb
Sogndal
Asane
Sandnes ULF
Ranheim
Raufoss
Moss