Paris Saint Germain are the clear favourites, the model rating them at 66% for a win, 20% for a draw and 14% for a Stade Brestois 29 victory. The away side’s strong 2.08 average goals scored against weaker opposition and only one conceded goal per game outweigh Brestois’ 0.75 goals for and against at home, especially since Brestois are facing a stronger opponent. The expected total of 3.5 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most likely scoreline 1-2 for PSG at 9.6%. Brestois’ recent draw streak and PSG’s similar draw streak suggest both teams will be cautious at first half, yet PSG’s edge should surface in the second. The model’s selections include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8%, Under 7.5 at 97.7% with a 2% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.5% with a 5% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.0% with a 1% edge, Under 6.5 at 94.2% with a 2% edge, Away +2 handicap at 93.0%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 92.4% with a 5% edge, and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 92.0% with a 1% edge.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stade Brestois 29 win
14.5%
Avg Implied 11.9% · @ 7.92
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
9.00
1xBet
8.70
Marathonbet
8.60
Betfair
8.50
Betano
7.70
Draw
19.6%
Avg Implied 17.4% · @ 5.45
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
5.80
1xBet
5.64
Dafabet
5.60
Pinnacle
5.56
Marathonbet
5.55
Paris Saint Germain win
66.0%
Avg Implied 70.7% · @ 1.34
Edge
-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.38
Dafabet
1.37
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stade Brestois 29
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.63
1.57
1.36
0.94
1.88
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.33
0.75
0.75
0.40
1.80
vs Similar (19)
1.53
1.79
1.90
1.60
1.11
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
-
-
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris Saint Germain
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.10
2.53
1.20
1.93
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
2.00
1.33
2.67
1.67
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (24)
2.29
1.04
2.50
1.08
2.08
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.9%
@ 1.11+3.2%
Under 1.5
13.1%
@ 5.71-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Under
Unibet
6.40
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.3%
@ 1.42+1.5%
Under 2.5
32.7%
@ 2.75-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
Under
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.85
Betano
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
45.7%
@ 2.16+1.4%
Under 3.5
54.3%
@ 1.71-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.23
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.18
Marathonbet
2.16
Pinnacle
2.16
Under
1xBet
1.76
Unibet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.70
Both teams to score
Yes
60.5%
@ 1.71+6.0%
No
39.5%
@ 2.05-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.72
Bet365
1.70
No
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.07
Bet365
2.05
Betano
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.6%@ 8.05+4.0%
0-2
9.0%@ 7.52+3.0%
1-1
8.8%@ 9.82+4.2%
1-3
7.7%@ 9.55+3.0%
0-3
7.2%@ 8.80+2.1%
0-1
6.7%@ 9.04+1.7%
2-2
5.1%@ 15.78+2.3%
1-4
4.6%@ 14.50+1.5%
Stade Brestois 29 goals ↓
Paris Saint Germain goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
6.7%
9.0%
7.2%
4.3%
1
2.5%
8.8%
9.6%
7.7%
4.6%
2
1.8%
4.3%
5.1%
4.1%
2.5%
3
0.6%
1.5%
1.8%
1.5%
0.9%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stade Brestois 29 goals (down), columns = Paris Saint Germain goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Stade Brestois 29 is 1.09 points worse than Paris Saint Germain in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 2.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Stade Brestois 29 is 0.91 goals worse than Paris Saint Germain in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 2.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Stade Brestois 29 is 0.76 goals worse than Paris Saint Germain in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 0.85).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Stade Brestois 29 is 25.4 percentage points worse than Paris Saint Germain in terms of average possession (43% vs 69%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stade Brestois 29
For 3.3 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 10.7 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Paris Saint Germain
For 7.1 · Against 2.7 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.7 · Against 10.1 · Total 17.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stade Brestois 29
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.1
10.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
25.2
24.7
25.8
vs Stronger (14)
8.9
8.3
9.6
3.0
3.7
2.3
24.0
25.3
22.7
vs Similar (34)
10.2
9.5
11.1
3.8
3.4
4.1
25.8
24.4
27.3
vs Weaker (2)
8.0
-
8.0
3.5
-
3.5
25.0
-
25.0
% over line
50%
42%
58%
52%
52%
52%
71%
67%
75%
% under line
50%
58%
42%
48%
48%
48%
29%
33%
25%
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris Saint Germain
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.6
8.9
2.7
2.8
2.7
18.7
19.6
17.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
9.4
8.8
10.3
3.9
4.0
3.7
21.3
21.5
21.0
vs Weaker (43)
9.2
9.7
8.7
2.5
2.5
2.5
18.2
19.2
17.2
% over line
43%
52%
35%
30%
36%
24%
24%
26%
22%
% under line
57%
48%
65%
70%
64%
76%
76%
74%
78%
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.5
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.3
Auxerre
10.0
Lyon
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.6
Monaco
9.6
Paris FC
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Angers
9.2
Marseille
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Marseille
4.5
Lens
4.5
Le Mans
4.4
Lille
4.4
Toulouse
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Le Havre
4.0
Nice
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
3.9
Paris FC
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Le Mans
27.1
Estac Troyes
27.0
Le Havre
26.8
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.4
Lyon
25.1
Stade Brestois 29
25.0
Lens
24.8
Rennes
24.0
Lille
24.0
Monaco
23.5
Strasbourg
23.5
Nice
23.4
Marseille
23.4
Lorient
22.8
Angers
22.7
Paris FC
22.3
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
42.0%
@ 1.70-12.0%
Under 9.5
58.0%
@ 2.00+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.70
Under
Unibet
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
44.7%
Under 3.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
49.9%
Under 21.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stade Brestois 29 or Draw
39.0%
Avg Implied 28.8% · @ 3.30
Edge
+10.2%
14%
20%
66%
covers Stade Brestois 29 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.60
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.32
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.25
Stade Brestois 29 or Paris Saint Germain
78.7%
Avg Implied 83.2% · @ 1.14
Edge
-4.5%
14%
20%
66%
covers Stade Brestois 29 + Paris Saint Germain
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Draw or Paris Saint Germain
82.3%
Avg Implied 88.0% · @ 1.08
Edge
-5.7%
14%
20%
66%
covers Draw + Paris Saint Germain
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 0.5
Over
68.5%
@ 1.58+9.6%
Under
31.5%
@ 2.26-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Betfair
1.60
Unibet
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Under
10Bet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.33
Betano
2.27
Marathonbet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 1.5
Over
32.1%
@ 3.88+8.0%
Under
67.9%
@ 1.23-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Pinnacle
3.91
Under
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 2.5
Over
11.1%
@ 11.18+2.6%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.03-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
12.75
1xBet
12.70
Bet365
11.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
@ 23.50-1.1%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.01+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Paris Saint Germain over/under 0.5
Over
89.4%
@ 1.04-0.5%
Under
10.6%
@ 9.22+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
Under
1xBet
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Betano
7.40
Paris Saint Germain over/under 1.5
Over
65.5%
@ 1.32-5.0%
Under
34.5%
@ 3.16+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Under
Unibet
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.22
Marathonbet
3.18
1xBet
3.18
Paris Saint Germain over/under 2.5
Over
38.8%
@ 2.04-7.0%
Under
61.2%
@ 1.73+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Marathonbet
2.09
10Bet
2.05
Under
Unibet
1.80
Betfair
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Betano
1.72
Paris Saint Germain over/under 3.5
Over
18.9%
@ 3.66-6.6%
Under
81.1%
@ 1.25+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.95
1xBet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Under
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Stade Brestois 29, so a minus line means Stade Brestois 29 give that many goals of a start and Paris Saint Germain receive them. At -1, Stade Brestois 29 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stade Brestois 29 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Stade Brestois 29)
Stade Brestois 29 -2
2.1%
@ 51.00+0.2%
Draw -2
4.9%
@ 21.00+0.4%
Paris Saint Germain +2
93.0%
@ 1.02-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
51.00
Draw
Bet365
21.00
Away
Bet365
1.02
Handicap -1 (Stade Brestois 29)
Stade Brestois 29 -1
7.0%
@ 17.25+1.7%
Draw -1
10.7%
@ 9.12+0.7%
Paris Saint Germain +1
82.3%
@ 1.07-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
18.00
Unibet
17.00
10Bet
15.00
Draw
Unibet
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.00
10Bet
7.50
Away
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Handicap +1 (Stade Brestois 29)
Stade Brestois 29 +1
39.0%
@ 3.32+11.9%
Draw +1
21.6%
@ 3.91-1.4%
Paris Saint Germain -1
39.5%
@ 1.81-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
3.55
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.32
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.10
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
10Bet
3.85
Unibet
3.80
Away
Marathonbet
1.91
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.73
Unibet
1.71
Handicap +2 (Stade Brestois 29)
Stade Brestois 29 +2
60.5%
@ 1.89+12.8%
Draw +2
18.5%
@ 4.09-3.6%
Paris Saint Germain -2
21.0%
@ 2.99-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.00
Betfair
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
10Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Draw
Marathonbet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.80
Away
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
Betfair
2.80
Unibet
2.75
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stade Brestois 29
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.86
0.71
0.44
0.94
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.78
0.75
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.84
0.90
0.80
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris Saint Germain
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
1.13
0.73
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.50
1.33
1.00
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (24)
0.96
0.62
1.08
0.67
0.83
0.58
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.7%
@ 1.22+0.4%
Under 0.5
23.3%
@ 3.94-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
William Hil
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.94
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.3%
@ 2.11+0.7%
Under 1.5
54.7%
@ 1.70-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.15
William Hil
2.10
Under
Betfair
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Unibet
1.70
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.9%
@ 4.55-3.6%
Under 2.5
83.1%
@ 1.18+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
William Hil
4.60
Betano
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.17
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.7%
@ 2.80+6.4%
Under
60.3%
@ 1.40-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.99
Unibet
2.85
10Bet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
Betano
2.75
Under
1xBet
1.43
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.37
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.0%
@ 10.12-1.4%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.05+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.50
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paris Saint Germain over/under 0.5 HT
Over
63.8%
@ 1.40-2.7%
Under
36.2%
@ 2.77+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.35
Under
10Bet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.85
Unibet
2.85
1xBet
2.70
Betano
2.62
Paris Saint Germain over/under 1.5 HT
Over
22.7%
@ 2.92-9.1%
Under
77.3%
@ 1.36+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.05
Marathonbet
3.04
1xBet
2.90
10Bet
2.80
Unibet
2.80
Under
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
Paris Saint Germain over/under 2.5 HT
Over
7.6%
@ 7.04-5.5%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.06+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.90
Unibet
6.75
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stade Brestois 29
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.71
0.64
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.56
0.00
0.25
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.95
1.00
0.80
0.56
1.11
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris Saint Germain
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.50
1.40
0.47
1.20
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
0.83
1.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.33
0.42
1.42
0.42
1.25
0.42
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.3%
@ 1.12-0.1%
Under 0.5
16.7%
@ 5.65+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Under
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.90
Marathonbet
5.90
Unibet
5.75
10Bet
5.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.0%
@ 1.66-4.6%
Under 1.5
48.0%
@ 2.17+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.75
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.65
Under
1xBet
2.21
Marathonbet
2.21
Betano
2.20
Unibet
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.3%
@ 3.05-6.4%
Under 2.5
75.7%
@ 1.35+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.30
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.08
Marathonbet
3.08
Betano
2.92
Under
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.8%
@ 2.26+4.6%
Under
54.2%
@ 1.58-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.29
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.24
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.55
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.6%
@ 7.80+1.7%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.05-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.90
1xBet
7.80
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.5%
@ 12.50-5.0%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Paris Saint Germain over/under 0.5 2H
Over
70.6%
@ 1.26-2.9%
Under
29.4%
@ 3.50+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Under
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.50
Paris Saint Germain over/under 1.5 2H
Over
31.1%
@ 2.21-10.7%
Under
68.9%
@ 1.59+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.23
10Bet
2.20
Betano
2.20
Under
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Paris Saint Germain over/under 2.5 2H
Over
13.0%
@ 4.85-6.1%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.15+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.55
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.5%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.0%
Home under 3.5 goals
97.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.1%
Under 6.5
94.2%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Unibet
1.02
-
+2.2%
Away +2 handicap
93.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.6%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
92.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-
+5.5%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.0%
1.05
Betano
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.4%
Away over 0.5 goals
89.4%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
-
-0.5%
Home under 2.5 goals
88.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-2.6%
Under 5.5
87.1%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.06
+1.9%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
87.0%
1.15
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
-
-
+6.1%
Over 1.5
86.9%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
+3.2%
Under 5.5 cards
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.4%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-1.7%
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.3%
1.12
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-0.1%
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.1%
1.18
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+3.6%
Draw or Away
82.3%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
-5.7%
Away +1 handicap
82.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
-
-2.5%
Away under 3.5 goals
81.1%
1.25
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+6.6%
Under 25.5 fouls
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
79.7%
1.40
Unibet
1.40
-
-
-
-
+13.9%
Home or Away
78.7%
1.14
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
-4.5%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
77.3%
1.36
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
+9.1%
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.7%
1.22
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+0.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.7%
1.35
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
+6.4%
Under 4.5
74.5%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.25
+1.1%
Under 4.5 cards
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 2H goals
70.6%
1.26
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
-
-
-
-2.9%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stade Brestois 29 · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Romain Del Castillo27%
Ludovic Ajorque22%
Remy Labeau Lascary21%
Julien Le Cardinal17%
Kamory Doumbia17%
Junior Dina Ebimbe15%
Mama Baldé11%
Joris Chotard6%
Lucas Tousart4%
Daouda Guindo4%
Pathé Mboup4%
Brendan Chardonnet3%
Hugo Magnetti3%
Grégoire Coudert0%
Kenny Lala0%
Radosław Majecki0%
Soumaila Coulibaly0%
Bradley Locko0%
Michel Diaz0%
Luc Zogbé0%
Hamidou Makalou0%
Raphaël Le Guen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ludovic Ajorque28%
Kamory Doumbia25%
Michel Diaz24%
Brendan Chardonnet23%
Pathé Mboup21%
Soumaila Coulibaly19%
Julien Le Cardinal17%
Daouda Guindo15%
Hugo Magnetti15%
Kenny Lala15%
Junior Dina Ebimbe11%
Grégoire Coudert8%
Remy Labeau Lascary7%
Romain Del Castillo6%
Joris Chotard6%
Lucas Tousart0%
Radosław Majecki0%
Mama Baldé0%
Bradley Locko0%
Luc Zogbé0%
Hamidou Makalou0%
Raphaël Le Guen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ludovic Ajorque22%
Kamory Doumbia17%
Romain Del Castillo12%
Mama Baldé11%
Brendan Chardonnet10%
Kenny Lala9%
Bradley Locko9%
Daouda Guindo4%
Remy Labeau Lascary4%
Hugo Magnetti3%
Joris Chotard3%
Lucas Tousart0%
Grégoire Coudert0%
Radosław Majecki0%
Julien Le Cardinal0%
Junior Dina Ebimbe0%
Soumaila Coulibaly0%
Michel Diaz0%
Pathé Mboup0%
Luc Zogbé0%
Hamidou Makalou0%
Raphaël Le Guen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ludovic Ajorque19%
Julien Le Cardinal17%
Mama Baldé16%
Kamory Doumbia8%
Remy Labeau Lascary7%
Pathé Mboup7%
Romain Del Castillo6%
Joris Chotard6%
Junior Dina Ebimbe4%
Brendan Chardonnet3%
Lucas Tousart0%
Hugo Magnetti0%
Grégoire Coudert0%
Kenny Lala0%
Radosław Majecki0%
Soumaila Coulibaly0%
Bradley Locko0%
Daouda Guindo0%
Michel Diaz0%
Luc Zogbé0%
Hamidou Makalou0%
Raphaël Le Guen0%
Paris Saint Germain · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ousmane Dembélé35%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia31%
Désiré Doué29%
Bradley Barcola26%
Gonçalo Ramos21%
Nuno Mendes16%
Senny Mayulu15%
João Neves14%
Ibrahim Mbaye11%
Vitinha11%
Kang-in Lee8%
Lucas Beraldo8%
Dro Fernández8%
Quentin Ndjantou7%
Marquinhos7%
Achraf Hakimi6%
Fabián Ruiz6%
Warren Zaïre-Emery6%
Willian Pacho5%
Ilya Zabarnyi3%
Lucas Hernández0%
Matvey Safonov0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Renato Marin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ilya Zabarnyi19%
Achraf Hakimi16%
Nuno Mendes13%
Lucas Hernández11%
Fabián Ruiz10%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia9%
Kang-in Lee8%
Lucas Beraldo8%
Quentin Ndjantou7%
Gonçalo Ramos7%
Marquinhos7%
Bradley Barcola7%
Warren Zaïre-Emery6%
Senny Mayulu5%
Matvey Safonov4%
João Neves3%
Désiré Doué3%
Vitinha2%
Ousmane Dembélé0%
Willian Pacho0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Renato Marin0%
Ibrahim Mbaye0%
Dro Fernández0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ousmane Dembélé27%
Achraf Hakimi26%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia22%
Nuno Mendes18%
Désiré Doué18%
Fabián Ruiz16%
Quentin Ndjantou14%
Vitinha13%
João Neves11%
Bradley Barcola11%
Kang-in Lee11%
Senny Mayulu10%
Warren Zaïre-Emery10%
Lucas Hernández8%
Lucas Beraldo4%
Ibrahim Mbaye4%
Willian Pacho2%
Gonçalo Ramos2%
Marquinhos0%
Matvey Safonov0%
Ilya Zabarnyi0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Renato Marin0%
Dro Fernández0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ousmane Dembélé35%
Désiré Doué26%
Gonçalo Ramos26%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia24%
Bradley Barcola20%
Senny Mayulu15%
Vitinha15%
Nuno Mendes11%
Fabián Ruiz10%
Kang-in Lee8%
Ibrahim Mbaye7%
Achraf Hakimi6%
João Neves6%
Lucas Beraldo4%
Warren Zaïre-Emery2%
Lucas Hernández0%
Marquinhos0%
Matvey Safonov0%
Willian Pacho0%
Ilya Zabarnyi0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Renato Marin0%
Quentin Ndjantou0%
Dro Fernández0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Stade Brestois 29's squad is €1414m less valuable than Paris Saint Germain's (€64m vs €1477m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Stade Brestois 29's attack is €613m less valuable than Paris Saint Germain's (€25m vs €638m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Stade Brestois 29's midfield is €410m less valuable than Paris Saint Germain's (€20m vs €430m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Stade Brestois 29's defence is €390m less valuable than Paris Saint Germain's (€19m vs €409m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lille
Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Lens
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice
Auxerre