The model points to an away win as the clear favourite, rating Gloria Bistrița at 76 % versus Ștefănești’s 8 % and a 16 % chance of a draw. The decisive edge stems from Gloria’s strong away form against a weaker opponent and Ștefănești’s struggle at home against stronger teams, with an average of 2.57 goals scored and 1.86 conceded. The expected total goals hover at 3.6, with the most likely total being 3 goals at 21 %. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2 for Gloria, carrying a 10.5 % probability. The model’s suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (98.9 %), Away +2 handicap (97.3 %), Under 7.5 (97.1 %), Home under 2.5 goals (94.6 %), Away over 0.5 goals (93.4 %), Under 6.5 (93.0 %), Draw or Away (91.5 %) and Away +1 handicap (91.5 %). Each selection is presented with its exact probability, and the match-result probabilities are stated explicitly as 8 %, 16 %, and 76 %.
Ştefăneşti| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.08 | 1.92 | 2.57 | 1.86 | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 1.67 | 2.08 | 2.57 | 1.86 | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| vs Similar (1) | 7.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 15% (-16pp vs league) | |||||
Gloria Bistriţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.03 | 1.19 | 0.94 | 1.71 | 1.14 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 1.75 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.65 | 0.91 | 1.55 | 0.73 | 1.75 | 1.08 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| Gloria Bistriţa goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.5% | 7.1% | 10% | 9.5% | 6.4% |
| 1 | 1.8% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 5.5% |
| 2 | 1.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Ştefăneşti| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.67 | 1.44 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (1) | 4.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
Gloria Bistriţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.47 | 0.44 | 0.31 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.70 | 0.39 | 0.64 | 0.18 | 0.75 | 0.58 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Ştefăneşti| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.90 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.56 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.25 | 1.25 |
| vs Similar (1) | 3.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Gloria Bistriţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.57 | 0.75 | 0.62 | 1.07 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.96 | 0.52 | 0.91 | 0.55 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.67 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home under 3.5 goals | 98.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 98.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 97.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 97.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 7.5 | 97.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 96.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 95.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 94.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 93.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 93.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Draw or Away | 91.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +1 handicap | 91.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 87.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 87.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 86.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 85.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 84.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 84.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 83.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 81.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 81.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 goals | 79.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 76.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away win | 76.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 71.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 71.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 71.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Ştefăneşti| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 22/08/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 12/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 06/08/25 | H | 1-3 | |
| 30/07/25 | A | 0-7 | |
| 07/08/24 | H | 1-5 | |
| 31/07/24 | H | 4-2 |
Gloria Bistriţa| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 29/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 19/08/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 12/08/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 07/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 2-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 2.6 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | - |
| 2 | Slatina | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 2.4 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | - |
| 3 | Concordia | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 4 | CSM Reşiţa | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Chindia Targoviste | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Popești-Leordeni | 5 | 9 | 40% | 1.8 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 3.2 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | Gloria Bistriţa | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.2 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | FC Bacau | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 9 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 10 | Cetatea Suceava | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Metaloglobus | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Metalul Buzău | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 13 | CS Afumati | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.0 | 100% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Bihor Oradea | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 2.0 | 80% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 15 | Ştefăneşti | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 17 | ASA Targu Mures | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2.2 | 80% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Dumbrăviţa | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 60% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 19 | CS Dinamo București | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 20 | CSM Satu Mare | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1.4 | 60% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 21 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 22 | Unirea Slobozia | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2.4 | 80% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | AFC Hermannstadt | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |