PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Stenhousemuir vs Alloa Athletic Result & Analysis

Date: 16/05/2026
Time: 16:30
Final 0-1
Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
Vs
35%
28%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Alloa Athletic
Alloa Athletic
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Stenhousemuir a 35% win probability against Alloa Athletic in the Scotland: Championship on 2026-05-16, with 28% for the draw and 37% for Alloa Athletic. The model estimates around 2.7 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (26%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.6%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 2.5 cards (84%), Over 19.5 fouls (79%), Under 11.5 corners (76%), Over 1.5 (76%).

Results analysis

Stenhousemuir finished 0-1 against Alloa Athletic (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 35% home win, 28% draw and 37% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (72%). Missed: Over 1.5 (76%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Stenhousemuir win✗ Miss
34.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic win✓ Hit
36.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W22D30W11D02L10W20W11D11D31WH·KEL21/03A·EAS28/03H·HAM04/04H·INV11/04A·COV18/04H·ALL25/04A·MON02/05A·QUE05/05H·QUE09/05A·ALL13/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.731.770.621.180.82
vs Stronger (28)1.460.711.830.581.190.81
vs Similar (2)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Alloa AthleticAlloa Athletic

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W25L22D23L10W21W13LH·HAM09/05A·HAM13/05H·HAM07/05A·HAM11/05H·AIR05/05A·AIR09/05H·STE13/05
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.572.001.251.252.003.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.500.501.000.002.001.00
vs Weaker (5)1.602.601.331.672.004.00
Clean sheet %29% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.9%
Under 1.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.0%
Under 2.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.0%
Under 3.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.6%
No
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-2
8.4%
0-1 ✓
8.1%
0-0
8.1%
2-1
8.1%
1-0
7.8%
0-2
6.4%
2-0
6.0%
Stenhousemuir goals ↓
Alloa Athletic goals →
01234
08.1%8.1%6.4%2.9%1.0%
17.8%14%8.4%3.8%1.3%
26.0%8.1%5.5%2.5%0.8%
32.6%3.6%2.4%1.1%0.4%
40.9%1.2%0.8%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stenhousemuir goals (down), columns = Alloa Athletic goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Alloa Athletic
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.15
Partick
1.85
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rvs
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queens Park
1.14
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr
1.08
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Ross County
1.02
Queen of the South
1.00
Airdrie United
0.94
Stenhousemuir is 1.00 points worse than Alloa Athletic in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 2.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
ST Johnstone
1.81
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rvs
1.19
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr
1.06
Ayr Utd
1.06
Ross County
1.04
Morton
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Queens Park
0.97
Queen's Park
0.97
Airdrie United
0.92
Stenhousemuir and Alloa Athletic are level in goals scored per game (both 1.25).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
ST Johnstone
0.71
Partick
0.96
Alloa Athletic
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rvs
1.17
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr
1.31
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queens Park
1.33
Queen's Park
1.33
Airdrie United
1.34
Morton
1.38
Ross County
1.56
Stenhousemuir and Alloa Athletic are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

For 5.5 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.1

🚩 Corners

14027713454441047411838498798141121112A·MONH·ALLA·COVH·INVH·HAMA·EASH·KELA·PETA·QUEA·HAM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.6

🟨 Cards

7011251255164231342267507647A·MONH·ALLA·COVH·INVH·HAMA·EASH·KELA·PETA·QUEA·HAM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 13.8 · Total 27.4

⚠️ Fouls

380771591117131511181011201817181910131514242828292138352928A·MONH·ALLA·COVH·INVH·HAMA·EASH·KELA·PETA·QUEA·HAM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Alloa AthleticAlloa Athletic

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.58.68.54.44.64.225.626.125.1
vs Stronger (47)8.58.58.54.64.74.425.726.425.1
vs Similar (2)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (1)10.010.0-8.08.0-20.020.0-
% over line38%35%41%66%68%64%71%70%73%
% under line62%65%59%34%32%36%29%30%27%
This opponent (Alloa Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Alloa AthleticAlloa Athletic

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (7)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (2)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (5)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Morton
11.0
Ross County
10.9
ST Johnstone
10.4
Partick
10.3
Airdrie United
10.1
Ayr
9.9
Arbroath
9.8
Dunfermline
9.1
Queens Park
9.0
Raith Rvs
8.8
Stenhousemuir
8.6

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Ayr Utd
9.0
Stenhousemuir
4.9
Morton
4.6
Ayr
4.4
ST Johnstone
4.4
Partick
4.3
Raith Rvs
4.2
Dunfermline
4.0
Queens Park
3.9
Arbroath
3.7
Airdrie United
3.4
Ross County
3.3

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.2
ST Johnstone
22.7
Ayr
22.6
Morton
21.8
Raith Rvs
21.6
Queens Park
21.6
Dunfermline
21.4
Ross County
21.4
Arbroath
20.8
Partick
20.2
Airdrie United
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.8%
Under 9.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
67.5%
Under 3.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
64.9%
Under 21.5
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W20W01L01L00D10W10W11D20WH·KEL21/03A·EAS28/03H·HAM04/04H·INV11/04A·COV18/04H·ALL25/04A·MON02/05A·QUE05/05H·QUE09/05A·ALL13/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.300.690.310.590.29
vs Stronger (28)0.610.290.670.250.560.31
vs Similar (2)1.000.501.001.001.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa Athletic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Alloa AthleticAlloa Athletic

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W24L01L12L10W10W02LH·HAM09/05A·HAM13/05H·HAM07/05A·HAM11/05H·AIR05/05A·AIR09/05H·STE13/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.861.290.500.751.332.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
vs Weaker (5)0.801.800.331.001.503.00
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards83.8%--------
Over 19.5 fouls79.2%--------
Under 11.5 corners76.0%--------
Over 1.575.9%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.572.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (31)
€6m
SJ (26)
€5m
PAR (22)
€3m
AYR (26)
€3m
QP (28)
€3m
RR (21)
€2m
RC (26)
€2m
MOR (26)
€2m
ARB (25)
€1m
STE (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (10)
€3m
SJ (9)
€3m
QP (14)
€2m
RC (9)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
AYR (8)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
ARB (5)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (7)
€1m
SJ (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RR (8)
€1m
AYR (7)
€1m
MOR (9)
€1m
ARB (8)
€1m
RC (5)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
QP (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (14)
€2m
SJ (10)
€2m
PAR (9)
€1m
AYR (11)
€1m
QP (12)
€1m
RR (8)
€1m
RC (12)
€1m
MOR (9)
€1m
ARB (12)
€1m
STE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Stenhousemuir vs Alloa Athletic · H/A from STE
DateH/AGameScore
13/05/26AAlloa Athletic Vs STE1-3

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/05/26AAlloa Athletic Vs STE1-3
09/05/26HSTE Vs Queen of the South1-1
05/05/26AQueen of the South Vs STE1-1
02/05/26AMontrose Vs STE0-2
25/04/26HSTE Vs Alloa1-0
18/04/26ACove Rangers Vs STE2-0
11/04/26HSTE Vs Inverness CT1-1
04/04/26HSTE Vs Hamilton3-0
28/03/26AEast Fife Vs STE2-2
21/03/26HSTE Vs Kelty Hearts2-0

Alloa AthleticAlloa Athletic

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/05/26HAA Vs Stenhousemuir1-3
09/05/26AAirdrie United Vs AA1-2
05/05/26HAA Vs Airdrie United1-0
11/05/24AHamilton Academical Vs AA3-2
07/05/24HAA Vs Hamilton Academical2-2
13/05/23AHamilton Academical Vs AA5-2
09/05/23HAA Vs Hamilton Academical1-0

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDW1.56
HomeWWDWD1.72
AwayDLWDW1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%44%36%
AVG goals2.362.562.16
Over 1.5 %70%72%68%
Over 2.5 %40%48%32%
Over 3.5 %28%36%20%
Scored1.281.561.00
Conceded1.081.001.16
BTTS48%56%40%
Clean Sheet40%44%36%
Corners8.538.578.50
Cards4.935.044.82
Alloa Athletic
Alloa Athletic
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWL1.43
HomeWDWL1.75
AwayLLW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %43%50%33%
AVG goals3.572.505.00
Over 1.5 %71%50%100%
Over 2.5 %71%50%100%
Over 3.5 %57%50%67%
Scored1.571.252.00
Conceded2.001.253.00
BTTS71%50%100%
Clean Sheet29%50%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ST JohnstoneST Johnstone48103
60%
2.1
8734+53
2.5
67%
44%
29%
10.0
50%
4.8
83%
22.5
67%
5
3121.80.7
-
2PartickPartick4889
48%
1.9
7246+26
2.5
75%
44%
27%
10.7
67%
4.6
58%
20.2
33%
3
1111.51.0
-
3DunfermlineDunfermline4874
44%
1.5
6949+20
2.5
73%
44%
25%
7.0
8%
4.8
83%
23.9
67%
6
3121.41.0
-
4ArbroathArbroath4871
38%
1.5
6055+5
2.4
69%
46%
21%
8.2
33%
4.2
67%
23.8
67%
1
0111.21.1
-
5MortonMorton4850
21%
1.0
4866-18
2.4
71%
44%
25%
10.2
58%
4.5
50%
23.4
58%
2
1111.01.4
-
6Ross CountyRoss County4849
25%
1.0
5075-25
2.6
69%
50%
29%
8.0
25%
3.9
58%
22.8
67%
2
1011.01.6
-
7Airdrie UnitedAirdrie United5047
20%
0.9
4667-21
2.3
64%
46%
22%
10.6
67%
3.3
50%
18.3
25%
0
0000.91.3
-
8Raith RoversRaith Rovers3645
33%
1.2
4342+1
2.4
75%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.2
-
9
RR
Raith Rvs		3645
33%
1.2
4342+1
2.4
75%
42%
19%
9.6
47%
4.3
56%
21.0
53%
2
1111.21.2
-
10QueenQueen's Park3641
25%
1.1
3548-13
2.3
67%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
11
QP
Queens Park		3641
25%
1.1
3548-13
2.3
67%
39%
19%
8.7
39%
4.1
69%
21.8
56%
3
2011.01.3
-
12
A
Ayr		3639
22%
1.1
3847-9
2.4
69%
42%
17%
10.0
50%
4.5
69%
22.4
58%
3
1111.11.3
-
13Ayr UtdAyr Utd3639
22%
1.1
3847-9
2.4
69%
42%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
-
14Alloa AthleticAlloa Athletic49
75%
2.2
54+1
2.2
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
15StenhousemuirStenhousemuir45
25%
1.2
54+1
2.2
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
16Queen of the SouthQueen of the South22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Scotland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

← all matches