Oxford and Stevenage are set to face off in a League One match, with both teams coming off draws in their last outings. Stevenage drew 1-1 with Burton, while Oxford drew 2-2 with Milton Keynes Dons.
The model predicts a draw as the most likely result, with a 36% probability. The expected total number of goals is 1.8, and the most likely score is 0-0 with an 18% probability.
Stevenage's home form is quite poor, with an average of 1.18 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per match against similar opponents. Oxford's away form is also underwhelming, averaging 1 goal scored and 1.6 conceded per match against similar opponents.
The model's selection is Under 3.5 with a 89.2% probability, offering a 16% edge. Another selection is Under 2.5 with a 73.3% probability, providing a 19% edge. The home win percentage is 35%, the draw percentage is 36%, and the away win percentage is 30%.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Stevenage failed to hold onto their home advantage, falling 1-2 to Oxford and ending a run that had begun with a loss. The pre-match favourite was a Draw, given a 36 % probability, but the model was wrong. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.7 %), Under 5.5 (99.0 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.4 %), Under 4.5 (96.4 %), Away under 2.5 goals (94.5 %), and Home under 2.5 goals (93.0 %). The final score of 1-2 confirmed the away win, contradicting the model’s draw prediction.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stevenage win✗ Miss
34.9%
Avg Implied 37.8% · @ 2.45
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.59
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.52
Marathonbet
2.51
1xBet
2.51
Draw✗ Miss
35.6%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.14
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
Pinnacle
3.25
Dafabet
3.25
Betano
3.20
Oxford win✓ Hit
29.5%
Avg Implied 32.6% · @ 2.85
Edge
-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.05
10Bet
3.00
888Sport
3.00
Pinnacle
2.91
Dafabet
2.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stevenage
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.20
1.07
0.60
0.80
1.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.67
0.75
0.75
0.60
2.40
vs Similar (21)
1.05
1.00
1.18
0.55
0.90
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Oxford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oxford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.23
1.00
1.06
0.79
1.43
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.00
1.32
1.08
1.08
0.89
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Stevenage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
54.8%
@ 1.34-14.7%
Under 1.5
45.2%
@ 3.05+14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Betano
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Pinnacle
3.23
Superbet
3.15
10Bet
3.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
26.7%
@ 2.09-18.2%
Under 2.5
73.3%
@ 1.70+18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.17
1xBet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
Bet365
2.10
888Sport
2.10
Under
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
10.8%
@ 3.67-14.5%
Under 3.5
89.2%
@ 1.24+14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.90
Betfair
3.80
888Sport
3.80
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Under
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
36.3%
@ 1.80-15.2%
No
63.7%
@ 1.91+15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Unibet
1.82
BetVictor
1.80
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
No
William Hil
1.95
888Sport
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
18.0%@ 8.23+12.6%
1-1
14.7%@ 5.76+6.9%
1-0
14.4%@ 7.16+8.2%
0-1
12.8%@ 7.82+7.1%
2-0
7.4%@ 10.83+3.3%
2-1
6.3%@ 9.03+1.4%
0-2
6.0%@ 12.65+2.5%
1-2 ✓
5.7%@ 9.76+1.1%
Stevenage goals ↓
Oxford goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
13%
6.0%
1.7%
0.4%
1
14%
15%
5.7%
1.6%
0.3%
2
7.4%
6.3%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
3
2.3%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stevenage goals (down), columns = Oxford goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Stevenage is 0.02 points worse than Oxford in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Stevenage is 0.49 goals worse than Oxford in terms of goals scored per game (1.02 vs 1.51).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Stevenage is 0.12 goals better than Oxford in terms of goals conceded per game (1.02 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stevenage
For 2.8 · Against 5.0 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 12.9 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Oxford
For 4.8 · Against 6.7 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 11.8 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stevenage
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.2
8.8
3.5
3.5
3.5
24.3
25.9
22.9
vs Stronger (12)
10.3
10.0
10.7
3.3
3.7
3.0
25.0
28.5
21.5
vs Similar (38)
7.9
7.6
8.2
3.6
3.4
3.7
24.1
25.0
23.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
43%
26%
58%
50%
54%
46%
73%
87%
62%
% under line
57%
74%
42%
50%
46%
54%
27%
13%
38%
This opponent (Oxford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oxford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
10.6
12.0
3.4
3.3
3.4
21.9
22.4
21.4
vs Stronger (14)
10.6
9.9
11.7
4.0
3.5
4.7
22.4
23.0
21.7
vs Similar (36)
11.6
11.0
12.1
3.1
3.2
3.1
21.7
22.1
21.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
70%
52%
88%
44%
44%
44%
48%
48%
48%
% under line
30%
48%
12%
56%
56%
56%
52%
52%
52%
This opponent (Stevenage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Plymouth
11.4
Oxford
11.3
Leicester
11.0
Barnsley
10.9
Wigan
10.7
Blackpool
10.5
Huddersfield
10.5
Bromley
10.5
Sheffield Weds
10.3
Luton
10.3
Burton
10.3
Wycombe
10.2
Peterboro
10.2
Bradford
10.2
Doncaster
10.0
Stockport
9.8
AFC Wimbledon
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.7
Mansfield
9.7
Reading
9.3
Notts County
9.3
Cambridge
9.2
Milton Keynes Dons
9.1
Stevenage
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.9
Notts County
4.3
Peterboro
4.3
Huddersfield
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Leyton Orient
4.0
Doncaster
3.9
Stevenage
3.8
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Wycombe
3.7
Blackpool
3.7
Leicester
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Luton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Burton
3.6
Barnsley
3.5
Oxford
3.4
Stockport
3.3
AFC Wimbledon
3.1
Wigan
3.1
Cambridge
3.1
Sheffield Weds
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bradford
24.6
Notts County
24.4
Plymouth
24.4
Stevenage
24.4
Huddersfield
24.3
Peterboro
23.9
Luton
23.8
Milton Keynes Dons
23.6
Blackpool
23.5
Wigan
23.3
Leyton Orient
23.2
AFC Wimbledon
23.0
Doncaster
22.6
Cambridge
22.6
Reading
22.6
Mansfield
22.1
Leicester
22.0
Sheffield Weds
22.0
Burton
21.9
Oxford
21.9
Bromley
21.9
Wycombe
21.4
Stockport
21.0
Barnsley
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.82
Superbet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Under
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
1.97
Unibet
1.96
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stevenage or Draw✗ Miss
70.5%
Avg Implied 67.4% · @ 1.38
Edge
+3.1%
35%
36%
30%
covers Stevenage + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.40
William Hil
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Stevenage or Oxford✓ Hit
64.4%
Avg Implied 70.6% · @ 1.32
Edge
-6.1%
35%
36%
30%
covers Stevenage + Oxford
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.36
William Hil
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Draw or Oxford✓ Hit
65.1%
Avg Implied 62.1% · @ 1.50
Edge
+3.1%
35%
36%
30%
covers Draw + Oxford
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.55
888Sport
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Bet365
1.50
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stevenage over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.1%
@ 1.29-10.7%
Under
38.9%
@ 3.30+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.37
10Bet
3.35
Superbet
3.30
888Sport
3.30
Stevenage over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.4%
@ 2.46-13.4%
Under
75.6%
@ 1.50+13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.66
BetVictor
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Marathonbet
2.55
Betano
2.45
Under
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Stevenage over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 5.84-8.8%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.10+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.90
BetVictor
5.75
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
888Sport
1.11
Stevenage over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 14.81-4.9%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
17.00
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Oxford over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
57.2%
@ 1.36-11.1%
Under
42.8%
@ 2.92+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.17
Betano
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Oxford over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
20.8%
@ 2.80-12.5%
Under
79.2%
@ 1.40+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.94
Unibet
2.88
888Sport
2.88
10Bet
2.80
Under
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.43
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Oxford over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.5%
@ 6.94-8.0%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.08+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
888Sport
7.50
Marathonbet
7.20
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Oxford over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 18.44-4.1%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.01+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
888Sport
23.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Stevenage, so a minus line means Stevenage give that many goals of a start and Oxford receive them. At -1, Stevenage must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stevenage win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Stevenage)Actual: Oxford
Stevenage -2
3.6%
@ 10.76-4.6%
Draw -2
9.6%
@ 6.68-3.6%
Oxford +2
86.7%
@ 1.12+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
7.30
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
6.70
Unibet
6.25
Marathonbet
4.95
Away
Unibet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Stevenage)Actual: Oxford
Stevenage -1
13.3%
@ 4.89-5.0%
Draw -1
21.6%
@ 3.99-0.9%
Oxford +1
65.1%
@ 1.51+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.15
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.80
10Bet
4.50
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
10Bet
3.80
Away
Unibet
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Superbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Handicap +1 (Stevenage)Actual: Draw
Stevenage +1
70.5%
@ 1.39+5.8%
Draw +1
19.2%
@ 4.37-1.3%
Oxford -1
10.3%
@ 6.07-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
10Bet
1.36
Draw
Marathonbet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Superbet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Away
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.10
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Handicap +2 (Stevenage)Actual: Stevenage
Stevenage +2
89.7%
@ 1.10+7.3%
Draw +2
7.7%
@ 8.00-3.6%
Oxford -2
2.6%
@ 14.33-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.50
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stevenage
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.47
0.53
0.27
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
0.56
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.80
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.43
0.64
0.27
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Oxford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oxford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.56
0.75
0.36
0.79
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.88
0.33
1.00
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.73
0.62
0.69
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Stevenage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
BetVictor
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.81
William Hil
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.70
Unibet
2.63
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.17
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
Betano
3.05
Under
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.36
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
9.00
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.20
Marathonbet
8.20
William Hil
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
BetVictor
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stevenage over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
1xBet
2.15
Superbet
2.07
Under
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.68
Superbet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Stevenage over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.70
1xBet
7.70
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.40
Superbet
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Stevenage over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Oxford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.33
10Bet
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Betano
2.27
Marathonbet
2.26
Under
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Superbet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Oxford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.60
Marathonbet
8.60
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
7.20
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Oxford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stevenage
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.53
0.33
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.11
0.50
0.50
0.60
1.60
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.57
0.55
0.27
0.40
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Oxford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oxford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.47
0.44
0.31
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.12
0.33
0.00
0.20
0.20
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.59
0.46
0.38
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Stevenage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stevenage over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stevenage over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stevenage over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oxford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oxford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oxford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
99.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
96.4%
1.06
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.5%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
93.0%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
888Sport
1.11
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
-
-
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
89.2%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+14.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
86.7%
1.12
Unibet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
79.2%
1.40
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.43
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
+12.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
75.6%
1.50
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Betano
1.50
+13.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
73.3%
1.70
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Superbet
1.72
+18.2%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
70.5%
1.38
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.40
William Hil
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
+3.1%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
70.5%
1.39
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
10Bet
1.36
+5.8%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stevenage
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Josh Magennis40%
J. Roberts20%
D. Kemp20%
O. Sanderson20%
Jordan Houghton0%
T. Vancooten0%
Luther James-Wildin0%
C. Piergianni0%
L. Thompson0%
L. Freestone0%
P. Patterson0%
Filip Marschall0%
T. Taylor0%
D. Phillips0%
M. Mellon0%
Saxon Earley0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luther James-Wildin67%
C. Piergianni40%
J. Roberts20%
L. Freestone20%
D. Kemp20%
Jordan Houghton0%
T. Vancooten0%
L. Thompson0%
Josh Magennis0%
P. Patterson0%
Filip Marschall0%
T. Taylor0%
D. Phillips0%
M. Mellon0%
Saxon Earley0%
O. Sanderson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
P. Patterson40%
J. Roberts0%
Jordan Houghton0%
T. Vancooten0%
Luther James-Wildin0%
C. Piergianni0%
L. Thompson0%
Josh Magennis0%
L. Freestone0%
D. Kemp0%
Filip Marschall0%
T. Taylor0%
D. Phillips0%
M. Mellon0%
Saxon Earley0%
O. Sanderson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Kemp40%
P. Patterson20%
O. Sanderson20%
J. Roberts0%
Jordan Houghton0%
T. Vancooten0%
Luther James-Wildin0%
C. Piergianni0%
L. Thompson0%
Josh Magennis0%
L. Freestone0%
Filip Marschall0%
T. Taylor0%
D. Phillips0%
M. Mellon0%
Saxon Earley0%
Oxford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
G. O'Donkor67%
C. Brannagan33%
M. Harris0%
P. Kioso0%
Siriki Dembélé0%
Ciaron Brown0%
Tyler Goodrham0%
B. Spencer0%
Jamie McDonnell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Harris33%
C. Brannagan33%
P. Kioso0%
Siriki Dembélé0%
Ciaron Brown0%
Tyler Goodrham0%
B. Spencer0%
G. O'Donkor0%
Jamie McDonnell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
M. Harris0%
P. Kioso0%
Siriki Dembélé0%
C. Brannagan0%
Ciaron Brown0%
Tyler Goodrham0%
B. Spencer0%
G. O'Donkor0%
Jamie McDonnell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Harris0%
P. Kioso0%
Siriki Dembélé0%
C. Brannagan0%
Ciaron Brown0%
Tyler Goodrham0%
B. Spencer0%
G. O'Donkor0%
Jamie McDonnell0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Stevenage's squad is €13m less valuable than Oxford's (€7m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Stevenage's attack is €4m less valuable than Oxford's (€2m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Stevenage's midfield is €4m less valuable than Oxford's (€2m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Stevenage's defence is €5m less valuable than Oxford's (€3m vs €8m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Barnsley
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Notts County
Bradford
Mansfield
Leicester
Reading
Plymouth
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Doncaster
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe