Stirling’s defensive record at home is modest, conceding 1.25 goals on average against similarly matched opposition, while their attack lags at 0.88 goals per game. Annan Athletic, playing away, also concedes 1.25 goals but scores only 0.5, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair. The model favours an away win, with a 37% chance of victory, a 32% draw probability and a 31% chance of a home win. The expected total of 2.2 goals points to a modest tally, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.7% probability. The most common total of two goals is expected 28% of the time. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 86.1%, Under 3.5 at 81.7%, Under 11.5 corners at 79.7%, Under 25.5 fouls at 74.2%, Over 19.5 fouls at 73.1% and Under 4.5 cards at 73.1%. The match opens with Annan Athletic looking to extend a recent win, while Stirling seeks to recover from a 0-4 defeat.
Results analysis
Stirling’s recent run of losses left them vulnerable, while Annan Athletic’s win over Dumbarton gave them momentum. The match finished 2-3, an away win that matched the model’s pick and its 37% probability. The predicted total of 2.2 goals was far below the actual five-goal tally. The model’s selections were mixed: Under 5.5 cards (86.1%) missed, Under 3.5 (81.7%) missed, Under 11.5 corners (79.7%) hit, Under 25.5 fouls (74.2%) hit, Over 19.5 fouls (73.1%) missed, and Under 4.5 cards (73.1%) missed. The game delivered more action and goals than expected.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stirling win✗ Miss
31.5%
Avg Implied 40.7% · @ 2.25
Edge
-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.7%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.29
Edge
+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✓ Hit
36.9%
Avg Implied 31.5% · @ 2.91
Edge
+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.20
1.21
1.21
1.44
1.19
vs Stronger (14)
1.43
1.14
1.67
1.17
1.25
1.12
vs Similar (16)
1.25
1.25
0.88
1.25
1.62
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.10
1.60
1.33
1.07
0.87
vs Stronger (16)
1.31
0.75
1.43
0.86
1.22
0.67
vs Similar (11)
1.27
1.55
1.71
1.71
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.33
2.00
2.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.2%
Under 1.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.1%
@ 1.93-10.3%
Under 2.5
61.9%
@ 1.81+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
18.3%
Under 3.5
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.0%
No
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.3%
0-1
11.4%
1-0
10.2%
1-2
7.7%
0-2
7.4%
2-1
7.0%
2-0
6.1%
Stirling goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
7.4%
2.8%
0.8%
1
10%
15%
7.7%
3.0%
0.9%
2
6.1%
7.0%
4.1%
1.6%
0.5%
3
2.1%
2.5%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stirling goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kelty Hearts
2.25
Forfar
1.67
Annan Athletic
1.64
Edinburgh City
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.36
Stranraer
1.31
Stirling
1.17
Albion Rvs
1.08
Elgin
1.03
Cowdenbeath
0.81
Stirling is 0.47 points worse than Annan Athletic in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kelty Hearts
1.89
Annan Athletic
1.78
Forfar
1.58
Stranraer
1.39
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.19
Stirling
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.03
Elgin
0.92
Cowdenbeath
0.78
Stirling is 0.64 goals worse than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kelty Hearts
0.78
Forfar
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.28
Stirling
1.28
Cowdenbeath
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.42
Elgin
1.42
Stranraer
1.50
Albion Rvs
1.61
Stirling is 0.14 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stirling
For 4.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 9.8 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 4.0 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.5 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 9.9 · Total 20.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.1
9.7
4.0
3.3
4.6
23.8
23.7
23.9
vs Stronger (26)
9.1
9.9
8.4
3.7
3.1
4.3
23.5
23.5
23.5
vs Similar (24)
10.8
10.3
11.2
4.2
3.5
4.8
24.1
24.0
24.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
57%
41%
60%
43%
74%
66%
65%
67%
% under line
52%
43%
59%
40%
57%
26%
34%
35%
33%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.6
9.5
3.8
3.7
3.9
23.2
24.4
22.0
vs Stronger (28)
9.6
9.8
9.5
4.0
3.9
4.1
22.6
25.1
20.5
vs Similar (18)
8.9
9.0
8.9
3.4
3.1
3.9
23.6
23.6
23.4
vs Weaker (4)
11.8
11.5
12.0
4.2
5.5
3.0
26.0
24.5
27.5
% over line
44%
50%
38%
60%
58%
62%
60%
62%
58%
% under line
56%
50%
62%
40%
42%
38%
40%
38%
42%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albion Rvs
10.1
Stirling
9.9
Stenhousemuir
9.7
Elgin
9.6
Cowdenbeath
9.6
Annan Athletic
9.6
Edinburgh City
9.1
Stranraer
8.9
Kelty Hearts
8.7
Forfar
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Elgin
4.1
Cowdenbeath
4.1
Stirling
4.0
Annan Athletic
3.8
Stranraer
3.8
Stenhousemuir
3.7
Edinburgh City
3.5
Forfar
3.1
Albion Rvs
3.0
Kelty Hearts
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stirling
23.8
Annan Athletic
23.2
Stranraer
22.8
Cowdenbeath
22.7
Stenhousemuir
22.5
Forfar
22.0
Elgin
22.0
Edinburgh City
21.8
Albion Rvs
21.7
Kelty Hearts
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
42.1%
Under 9.5
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.7%
Under 3.5
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
57.2%
Under 21.5
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.29
0.71
0.75
0.50
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.64
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.62
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.56
0.25
0.75
1.00
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.73
0.73
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
0.44
0.71
0.57
0.44
0.33
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.73
0.71
0.86
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.93
0.50
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.50
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.69
0.62
0.50
0.62
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.87
0.60
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
0.31
0.71
0.29
0.78
0.33
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.82
1.00
0.86
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Stirling and Annan Athletic have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stirling and Annan Athletic have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
Stirling and Annan Athletic have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stirling and Annan Athletic have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kelty Hearts
Forfar
Edinburgh City
Stenhousemuir
Stranraer
Elgin
Cowdenbeath