PythiaFootballBETA
Annan Athletic are the clear favourites, with the model picking an away win and giving the away side a 49% chance of triumph, the draw at 28% and the home side 23%. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly open game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.2% probability. Stirling, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.62 conceded, while Annan Athletic on the road averages 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 11.5 corners at 83.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 80.5%, Under 25.5 fouls at 80.0%, Over 1.5 goals at 74.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 74.2% (miss), Under 10.5 corners at 74.1% (miss), and Under 3.5 goals at 73.9%. Stirling’s recent form shows a loss, defeat, loss, loss, win, while Annan Athletic have a win, loss, loss, win, loss, coming off a 2-0 victory. The match is expected to favour the visitors, with a 49% chance of a win, 28% for a draw, and 23% for a home win.
The match finished 0-3 in favour of Annan Athletic, confirming the model’s pick of an away win at 49%. The win extends their recent run, coming off a 2-0 victory over Dumbarton, while Stirling’s form is still shaky after a 0-4 loss to Elgin. The model’s favourite was right, and the final score matched the predicted outcome. Of the suggested selections, Under 5.5 cards hit at 80.5%, Under 25.5 fouls hit at 80.0%, Over 1.5 hit at 74.2%, and Under 3.5 hit at 73.9%. The other picks - Under 11.5 corners, Over 2.5 cards, and Under 10.5 corners - missed, with probabilities of 83.1%, 74.2%, and 74.1% respectively.
Stirling| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.43 | 1.29 | 1.57 | 1.12 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 1.17 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.22 | 1.39 | 1.12 | 1.62 | 1.30 | 1.20 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
Annan Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.80 | 1.20 | 1.81 | 1.31 | 1.79 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 2.21 | 0.93 | 2.33 | 0.83 | 2.12 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.08 | 1.58 | 1.12 | 1.62 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 2.50 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
| Annan Athletic goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.7% | 11% | 9.3% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 6.5% | 13% | 9.4% | 4.9% | 1.9% |
| 2 | 3.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
StirlingAnnan AthleticStirling| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 23.2 | 23.5 | 22.9 |
| vs Stronger (23) | 8.5 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 23.3 | 23.6 | 23.0 |
| vs Similar (27) | 9.9 | 9.5 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 23.1 | 23.4 | 22.9 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 40% | 46% | 35% | 62% | 46% | 77% | 58% | 67% | 50% |
| % under line | 60% | 54% | 65% | 38% | 54% | 23% | 42% | 33% | 50% |
Annan Athletic| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.5 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 22.6 | 23.0 | 22.1 |
| vs Stronger (25) | 9.3 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 22.1 | 23.9 | 20.8 |
| vs Similar (19) | 9.5 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 22.5 | 22.3 | 22.7 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 10.8 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 24.7 | 22.7 | 26.7 |
| % over line | 46% | 58% | 33% | 60% | 58% | 62% | 53% | 44% | 62% |
| % under line | 54% | 42% | 67% | 40% | 42% | 38% | 47% | 56% | 38% |
Stirling| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.70 | 0.43 | 0.79 | 0.38 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.17 | 0.83 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.44 | 0.72 | 0.38 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Annan Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.62 | 0.75 | 0.86 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.79 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.62 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.50 | 0.83 | 0.38 | 0.88 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.25 | 0.75 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
Stirling| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.83 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.78 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.62 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
Annan Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.50 | 1.19 | 0.56 | 0.93 | 0.43 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 1.43 | 0.36 | 1.83 | 0.33 | 1.12 | 0.38 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.58 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.25 | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 11.5 corners | 83.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 5.5 cards | 80.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 80.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 74.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 74.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 10.5 corners | 74.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 73.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/01/22 | A | 0-0 | |
| 18/12/21 | H | 2-3 | |
| 14/08/21 | A | 3-1 | |
| 10/04/21 | A | 1-2 | |
| 31/10/20 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/01/20 | A | 2-3 | |
| 16/11/19 | H | 2-0 | |
| 21/09/19 | A | 0-0 |
Stirling| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/22 | A | 0-1 | |
| 08/03/22 | H | 2-1 | |
| 05/03/22 | H | 0-1 | |
| 26/02/22 | A | 3-1 | |
| 15/02/22 | H | 1-1 | |
| 11/02/22 | A | 1-0 | |
| 29/01/22 | A | 0-0 | |
| 15/01/22 | A | 3-3 | |
| 08/01/22 | H | 0-3 | |
| 02/01/22 | A | 1-2 |
Annan Athletic| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/22 | H | 2-1 | |
| 05/03/22 | H | 4-1 | |
| 02/03/22 | A | 1-4 | |
| 26/02/22 | A | 3-1 | |
| 19/02/22 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/02/22 | A | 0-2 | |
| 05/02/22 | H | 0-2 | |
| 29/01/22 | H | 0-0 | |
| 15/01/22 | H | 2-2 | |
| 08/01/22 | A | 1-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Kelty Hearts | 36 | 81 | 67% | 2.2 | 68 | 28 | +40 | 2.7 | 69% | 47% | 33% | 9.0 | 39% | 3.2 | 36% | 20.0 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 |  Forfar | 36 | 60 | 44% | 1.7 | 57 | 36 | +21 | 2.6 | 78% | 36% | 28% | 9.3 | 47% | 3.1 | 44% | 22.2 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Annan Athletic | 36 | 59 | 50% | 1.6 | 64 | 51 | +13 | 3.2 | 86% | 64% | 42% | 9.5 | 47% | 3.8 | 53% | 21.7 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | - |
| 4 |  Edinburgh City | 36 | 52 | 39% | 1.4 | 43 | 49 | -6 | 2.6 | 75% | 47% | 31% | 8.9 | 50% | 3.1 | 36% | 19.6 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 5 |  Stenhousemuir | 36 | 49 | 36% | 1.4 | 47 | 46 | +1 | 2.6 | 78% | 42% | 28% | 9.8 | 53% | 3.7 | 61% | 21.2 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 6 |  Stranraer | 36 | 47 | 36% | 1.3 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 2.9 | 81% | 53% | 33% | 8.8 | 39% | 4.3 | 58% | 22.1 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | Stirling | 36 | 42 | 31% | 1.2 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 2.4 | 67% | 44% | 25% | 8.4 | 25% | 3.8 | 56% | 21.7 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | AR Albion Rvs | 36 | 39 | 28% | 1.1 | 37 | 58 | -21 | 2.6 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 8.8 | 33% | 3.0 | 33% | 20.1 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 9 |  Elgin | 36 | 37 | 25% | 1.0 | 33 | 51 | -18 | 2.3 | 81% | 36% | 19% | 8.1 | 22% | 3.9 | 53% | 22.9 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.4 | - |
| 10 |  Cowdenbeath | 36 | 29 | 19% | 0.8 | 28 | 49 | -21 | 2.1 | 64% | 36% | 17% | 9.1 | 33% | 3.9 | 53% | 21.5 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | - |