Stirling are tipped to win the match, with the model picking a home victory as the most likely outcome. The odds show a 46% chance of a Stirling win, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance of an Annan Athletic win. The expected total goals hover at 3.0, yet the most probable total is two goals, carrying a 24% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.2% chance of that exact result.
Stirling’s home form shows an average of 2.57 goals scored and only 0.86 conceded against similar opposition, while Annan Athletic averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on the road. The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 88.0%, Over 1.5 at 80.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 77.8%, Under 23.5 fouls at 77.6%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.7%, and Under 11.5 corners at 71.4%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages and every selection is listed.
Results analysis
Stirling’s recent form, coming off a defeat, was a mixed run of losses and a win, yet they secured a 3-1 victory over Annan Athletic, who had just won their last match. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win at 46 percent, and it proved correct. The final score of 3-1 matched the actual result. The model’s selections all hit: Under 25.5 fouls at 88 percent, Over 1.5 at 80.7 percent, Over 2.5 cards at 77.8 percent, Under 23.5 fouls at 77.6 percent, Under 5.5 cards at 76.7 percent, and Under 11.5 corners at 71.4 percent. Each probability was expressed as a percentage, and every pick’s outcome was noted.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stirling win✓ Hit
46.3%
Avg Implied 53.3% · @ 1.72
Edge
-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.78
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 22.4% · @ 4.10
Edge
+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.97
2.29
1.00
1.56
0.94
vs Stronger (14)
1.79
1.00
2.00
1.14
1.57
0.86
vs Similar (16)
2.00
0.94
2.57
0.86
1.56
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.33
2.12
1.25
1.64
1.43
vs Stronger (15)
2.33
1.27
3.29
1.00
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (12)
1.67
1.58
1.43
1.71
2.00
1.40
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.7%
Under 1.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.9%
@ 1.68+1.5%
Under 2.5
43.1%
@ 2.09-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.5%
Under 3.5
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.8%
No
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
7.6%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.0%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
6.0%
0-1
5.4%
Stirling goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
5.4%
4.1%
1.8%
0.6%
1
7.6%
12%
7.0%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.4%
9.4%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
3
4.2%
5.3%
3.4%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.8%
2.3%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stirling goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Stirling is 0.61 points better than Annan Athletic in terms of average points per game (2.03 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Stirling is 0.17 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.69).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Stirling is 0.39 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stirling
For 5.1 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 10.0 · Total 19.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 6.7 · Against 4.3 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 10.0 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.0
9.4
4.0
3.5
4.4
21.2
20.5
21.8
vs Stronger (23)
8.7
7.8
9.6
4.6
4.3
4.9
22.6
23.3
21.8
vs Similar (27)
9.6
10.1
9.2
3.4
2.8
4.1
19.9
17.9
21.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
40%
40%
54%
40%
68%
42%
36%
48%
% under line
60%
60%
60%
46%
60%
32%
58%
64%
52%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.7
9.9
3.7
3.7
3.8
20.9
21.9
19.8
vs Stronger (23)
8.7
9.2
8.3
3.7
3.2
4.1
20.3
20.1
20.5
vs Similar (22)
11.0
10.5
11.6
3.8
4.1
3.4
22.0
24.0
19.7
vs Weaker (5)
9.6
8.7
11.0
4.0
4.3
3.5
18.2
19.7
16.0
% over line
50%
50%
50%
52%
58%
46%
45%
44%
46%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
48%
42%
54%
55%
56%
54%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stenhousemuir
10.9
Forfar
10.6
Dumbarton
10.1
Annan Athletic
9.8
Stranraer
9.6
Albion Rvs
9.5
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.5
Stirling
9.2
East Fife
9.2
Elgin
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dumbarton
4.6
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.4
Elgin
4.2
East Fife
4.2
Albion Rvs
4.1
Stirling
4.0
Stranraer
3.9
Stenhousemuir
3.8
Annan Athletic
3.7
Forfar
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bonnyrigg Rose
22.2
Elgin
22.2
Forfar
21.9
Albion Rvs
21.7
East Fife
21.2
Stirling
21.2
Stranraer
21.0
Annan Athletic
20.9
Stenhousemuir
20.7
Dumbarton
20.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.2%
Under 9.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.9%
Under 3.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
37.1%
Under 21.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.60
1.36
0.64
0.75
0.56
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
0.64
1.14
0.86
0.86
0.43
vs Similar (16)
1.06
0.56
1.57
0.43
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.88
0.62
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
0.87
0.86
0.86
0.50
0.88
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.50
1.00
0.57
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.37
0.93
0.36
0.81
0.38
vs Stronger (14)
0.79
0.36
0.86
0.29
0.71
0.43
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.38
1.00
0.43
0.89
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.70
1.25
0.62
1.00
0.79
vs Stronger (15)
1.67
0.40
2.43
0.14
1.00
0.62
vs Similar (12)
0.75
1.08
0.43
1.14
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Stirling and Annan Athletic have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Stirling and Annan Athletic have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Stirling and Annan Athletic have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Stirling and Annan Athletic have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dumbarton
East Fife
Forfar
Stenhousemuir
Stranraer
Elgin