Stirling are the clear favorites, with a 43% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 29% chance of an Annan Athletic win. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, but the most likely total is two goals, a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.1% chance. Stirling, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 2.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded, while Annan Athletic on the road averages 1.67 scored and 1.67 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls (87.8%), Under 5.5 cards (81.4%), Under 23.5 fouls (77.2%), Over 1.5 (77.2%), Over 2.5 cards (73.3%), and Under 3.5 (70.3%). The model’s selection for the match outcome is a home win.
Results analysis
Stirling’s recent form, a string of two losses and a win, had them on the brink of a turnaround, yet the match ended 1-1, a draw that left the pre-match favourite - a home win at 43% - on the wrong side of the result. The model’s call was incorrect. The final score confirmed the draw, with neither side breaking the deadlock. The model’s selection for Under 5.5 cards, hit at 81.4%, proved accurate, while Under 25.5 fouls, hit 87.8%, missed. Under 23.5 fouls at 77.2% missed, and both Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 cards at 77.2% and 73.3% respectively hit. The Under 3.5 selection, at 70.3%, also hit.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stirling win✗ Miss
43.0%
Avg Implied 44.9% · @ 2.05
Edge
-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.6%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.49
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied 28.8% · @ 3.20
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.73
1.36
1.36
0.88
2.06
vs Stronger (24)
0.88
1.83
1.17
1.50
0.58
2.17
vs Similar (6)
2.00
1.33
2.50
0.50
1.75
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.83
1.88
1.81
1.29
1.86
vs Stronger (24)
1.46
2.04
1.69
2.15
1.18
1.91
vs Similar (6)
2.17
1.00
2.67
0.33
1.67
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.2%
Under 1.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.8%
@ 1.63-5.5%
Under 2.5
48.2%
@ 2.19+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.7%
Under 3.5
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.4%
No
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.1%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
8.6%
0-0
7.6%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.3%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
5.6%
Stirling goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
6.6%
4.8%
2.0%
0.6%
1
8.6%
13%
7.3%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.4%
9.1%
5.6%
2.3%
0.7%
3
3.8%
4.6%
2.8%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.4%
1.8%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stirling goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Falkirk
2.50
Hamilton
2.06
Alloa
1.56
Montrose
1.47
Cove Rangers
1.36
Kelty Hearts
1.22
Queen of Sth
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.08
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
0.39
Stirling and Annan Athletic are level in average points per game (both 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Falkirk
2.67
Hamilton
2.03
Alloa
1.67
Cove Rangers
1.61
Montrose
1.61
Annan Athletic
1.53
Kelty Hearts
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.28
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
1.06
Stirling is 0.44 goals worse than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Falkirk
0.78
Hamilton
0.78
Queen of Sth
1.47
Alloa
1.53
Montrose
1.58
Stirling
1.61
Kelty Hearts
1.75
Cove Rangers
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.89
Edinburgh City
2.72
Stirling is 0.28 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stirling
For 4.9 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 10.1 · Total 20.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 4.8 · Against 6.4 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.8 · Against 11.3 · Total 20.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.7
10.9
4.0
4.0
4.0
20.0
19.8
20.2
vs Stronger (34)
10.1
9.8
10.4
4.0
3.8
4.2
19.8
19.8
19.8
vs Similar (16)
10.8
9.6
11.7
4.0
4.3
3.8
20.5
20.0
20.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
56%
72%
54%
48%
60%
38%
36%
40%
% under line
36%
44%
28%
46%
52%
40%
62%
64%
60%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
11.0
9.0
4.6
4.5
4.8
20.9
20.9
20.8
vs Stronger (35)
9.5
10.1
8.9
4.6
4.6
4.6
20.7
21.2
20.2
vs Similar (14)
11.1
12.9
9.3
4.8
4.3
5.3
21.5
20.6
22.4
vs Weaker (1)
13.0
13.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
18.0
18.0
-
% over line
52%
58%
46%
68%
65%
71%
42%
50%
33%
% under line
48%
42%
54%
32%
35%
29%
58%
50%
67%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kelty Hearts
11.1
Falkirk
10.8
Hamilton
10.4
Stirling
10.3
Montrose
10.2
Cove Rangers
10.1
Annan Athletic
10.0
Queen of Sth
10.0
Edinburgh City
10.0
Alloa
9.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Annan Athletic
4.6
Falkirk
4.1
Montrose
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Queen of Sth
3.7
Kelty Hearts
3.6
Edinburgh City
3.6
Hamilton
3.6
Alloa
3.4
Cove Rangers
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Falkirk
21.8
Kelty Hearts
21.7
Montrose
21.0
Annan Athletic
20.9
Queen of Sth
20.9
Hamilton
20.5
Edinburgh City
20.3
Stirling
20.0
Alloa
19.1
Cove Rangers
18.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.4%
Under 9.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.9%
Under 3.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
37.5%
Under 21.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.57
0.57
0.44
1.00
vs Stronger (24)
0.38
0.79
0.50
0.58
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (6)
1.00
0.83
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.97
1.00
1.06
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (24)
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.23
0.45
0.73
vs Similar (6)
1.00
0.83
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.79
0.79
0.44
1.06
vs Stronger (24)
0.50
1.04
0.67
0.92
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (6)
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
0.88
0.75
0.71
1.00
vs Stronger (24)
0.71
1.04
0.69
0.92
0.73
1.18
vs Similar (6)
1.17
0.17
1.67
0.00
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (27)
€6m
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Stirling and Annan Athletic have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (9)
€2m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stirling and Annan Athletic have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (5)
€1m
MON (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
Stirling and Annan Athletic have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (13)
€3m
KH (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Stirling and Annan Athletic have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Falkirk
Montrose
Cove Rangers
Kelty Hearts
Edinburgh City