PythiaFootballBETA
Stirling and Annan Athletic face a finely balanced clash, with the model tipping an away win as the most likely outcome. The probabilities are 30% for a home win, 30% for a draw, and 41% for an away win, so the favoured result is the away side triumph. The expected total goals hover at 2.4, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.1% chance. Stirling, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, while Annan Athletic, on the road, nets 1.0 and concedes 1.5 against comparable opposition.
The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 82.2%, Under 25.5 fouls at 78.4%, Under 3.5 goals at 76.9%, Over 1.5 goals at 71.5%, Under 5.5 cards at 70.9%, and Over 8.5 corners at 70.7%. Each of these picks is presented with its own percentage, reflecting the model’s confidence in these outcomes.
The upset came early as Stirling overturned the pre-match favourite, Annan Athletic, to claim a 2-0 victory. The model had tipped an away win with a 41% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 2-0 confirmed a home win, a result that the model had not predicted. The model’s other selections all hit: Over 2.5 cards at 82.2%, Under 25.5 fouls at 78.4%, Under 3.5 at 76.9%, Over 1.5 at 71.5%, Under 5.5 cards at 70.9% and Over 8.5 corners at 70.7%. Stirling’s recent form shows a win after a defeat, while Annan Athletic had a win before this match.
Stirling| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.83 | 0.79 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 1.69 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 1.00 | 2.08 | 0.83 | 2.17 | 1.14 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.29 | 1.43 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.33 | 2.67 | 1.00 | 3.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-17pp vs league) | |||||
Annan Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 2.17 | 1.86 | 2.14 | 0.94 | 2.19 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 1.58 | 3.08 | 2.33 | 2.33 | 0.83 | 3.83 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.36 | 1.45 | 1.80 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.00 | 1.71 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-10pp vs league) | |||||
| Annan Athletic goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.9% | 10% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 14% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 5.3% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
StirlingAnnan AthleticStirling| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.7 | 10.9 | 10.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 20.8 | 20.2 | 21.4 |
| vs Stronger (23) | 11.1 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 20.9 | 20.2 | 21.6 |
| vs Similar (22) | 10.9 | 11.4 | 10.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 21.0 | 20.9 | 21.2 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 8.6 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 19.4 | 18.0 | 21.5 |
| % over line | 59% | 68% | 50% | 52% | 50% | 54% | 41% | 36% | 45% |
| % under line | 41% | 32% | 50% | 48% | 50% | 46% | 59% | 64% | 55% |
Annan Athletic| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.9 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 21.5 | 21.3 | 21.7 |
| vs Stronger (27) | 9.7 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 20.2 | 21.4 | 18.7 |
| vs Similar (16) | 9.3 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 23.5 | 21.3 | 25.5 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 12.3 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 21.3 | 21.0 | 21.7 |
| % over line | 53% | 50% | 57% | 52% | 40% | 64% | 51% | 50% | 52% |
| % under line | 47% | 50% | 43% | 48% | 60% | 36% | 49% | 50% | 48% |
Stirling| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.21 | 1.14 | 0.56 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.31 | 0.92 | 0.17 | 1.33 | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.50 | 0.79 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
Annan Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 1.03 | 0.64 | 1.21 | 0.44 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.67 | 1.50 | 0.83 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.27 | 0.55 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.71 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
Stirling| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.93 | 0.57 | 0.86 | 0.94 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.69 | 1.15 | 0.67 | 0.83 | 0.71 | 1.43 |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.79 | 0.64 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 1.12 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+3pp vs league) | |||||
Annan Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.13 | 1.21 | 0.93 | 0.50 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.92 | 1.58 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 2.17 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.09 | 0.91 | 1.60 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.29 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 82.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 78.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 76.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 71.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 70.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 8.5 corners | 70.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 09/08/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 04/05/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 17/02/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 16/12/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 16/09/23 | A | 3-0 | |
| 22/04/23 | H | 3-1 | |
| 18/02/23 | A | 2-2 |
Stirling| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/02/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 31/01/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 24/01/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 17/01/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 10/01/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 27/12/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 20/12/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 13/12/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 06/12/25 | A | 3-2 |
Annan Athletic| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 14/02/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 10/02/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 07/02/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 31/01/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 24/01/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 16/01/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 27/12/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 20/12/25 | A | 1-3 | |
| 13/12/25 | H | 3-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  East Kilbride | 36 | 69 | 58% | 1.9 | 77 | 46 | +31 | 3.4 | 92% | 69% | 50% | 10.4 | 58% | 5.6 | 83% | 26.4 | 81% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.3 | - |
| 2 |  Spartans | 36 | 64 | 50% | 1.8 | 60 | 39 | +21 | 2.8 | 83% | 53% | 28% | 9.4 | 47% | 4.0 | 58% | 19.9 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.1 | - |
| 3 |  Clyde | 36 | 56 | 39% | 1.6 | 58 | 41 | +17 | 2.8 | 83% | 53% | 33% | 9.8 | 42% | 4.1 | 61% | 21.4 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | - |
| 4 |  Forfar | 36 | 50 | 36% | 1.4 | 51 | 47 | +4 | 2.7 | 72% | 50% | 36% | 9.2 | 50% | 4.1 | 58% | 23.8 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | - |
| 5 |  Stranraer | 36 | 47 | 33% | 1.3 | 46 | 46 | +0 | 2.6 | 78% | 50% | 28% | 11.0 | 63% | 4.3 | 66% | 22.5 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 6 |  Elgin | 36 | 44 | 31% | 1.2 | 51 | 55 | -4 | 2.9 | 86% | 56% | 25% | 10.5 | 60% | 4.2 | 60% | 22.8 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | Annan Athletic | 36 | 41 | 28% | 1.1 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 2.9 | 78% | 56% | 36% | 9.9 | 50% | 4.4 | 64% | 23.8 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | - |
| 8 |  Dumbarton | 36 | 40 | 28% | 1.1 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 3.0 | 92% | 58% | 28% | 10.6 | 54% | 3.5 | 46% | 20.8 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | - |
| 9 |  Edinburgh City | 36 | 39 | 28% | 1.1 | 45 | 72 | -27 | 3.2 | 86% | 69% | 44% | 9.5 | 51% | 5.2 | 80% | 23.8 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 10 | Stirling | 36 | 38 | 25% | 1.1 | 46 | 63 | -17 | 3.0 | 83% | 58% | 36% | 11.4 | 58% | 4.1 | 58% | 20.7 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | - |