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Stirling vs Dumbarton Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 2-0
Stirling
Stirling
Vs
44%
27%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Stirling a 44% win probability against Dumbarton in the Scotland: League Two on 2026-08-01, with 27% for the draw and 29% for Dumbarton. The model estimates around 2.9 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (79%).

Results analysis

Stirling finished 2-0 against Dumbarton (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 44% home win, 27% draw and 29% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (79%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Stirling win✓ Hit
43.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton win✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

StirlingStirling

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L33D03L23L10W13L12L22D11D22DA·SPA03/03A·ANN07/03H·FOR14/03A·EAS21/03H·EDI28/03A·CLY04/04A·DUM11/04H·ELG18/04A·STR25/04H·SPA02/05
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.731.071.801.531.67
vs Stronger (10)1.201.701.401.601.001.80
vs Similar (16)1.381.500.881.501.881.50
vs Weaker (4)1.252.751.003.501.502.00
Clean sheet %10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DumbartonDumbarton

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-530W20W11D21W22D11D21W02L01L05LH·SPA07/03H·STR10/03A·ELG14/03H·ANN21/03H·FOR28/03A·STR04/04H·STI11/04A·CLY18/04H·EAS25/04A·EDI02/05
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.701.471.330.802.07
vs Stronger (16)1.191.751.621.120.752.38
vs Similar (14)1.071.641.291.570.861.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.2%
Under 1.5
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.7%
Under 2.5
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.4%
Under 3.5
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.5%
No
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
7.9%
1-2
7.3%
2-0 ✓
7.3%
0-0
6.8%
0-1
6.1%
2-2
5.9%
Stirling goals ↓
Dumbarton goals →
01234
06.8%6.1%4.6%1.9%0.6%
17.9%13%7.3%3.1%1.0%
27.3%9.2%5.9%2.5%0.8%
33.9%4.9%3.1%1.3%0.4%
41.5%2.0%1.2%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stirling goals (down), columns = Dumbarton goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Kelty Hearts
1.36
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Stirling is 0.06 points worse than Dumbarton in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.11).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Kelty Hearts
1.47
Forfar
1.42
Elgin
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Stirling is 0.03 goals worse than Dumbarton in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.31).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Kelty Hearts
1.47
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Stirling is 0.06 goals worse than Dumbarton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 1.69).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

StirlingStirling

For 3.4 · Against 7.9 · Total 11.3

ðŸšĐ Corners

16039313436105107618197441216716151391078H·SPAA·STRH·ELGA·DUMA·CLYH·EDIA·EASH·FORA·ANNA·SPA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.2

ðŸŸĻ Cards

8011311132213441135412425248285H·SPAA·STRH·ELGA·DUMA·CLYH·EDIA·EASH·FORA·ANNA·SPA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 10.2 · Total 21.2

⚠ïļ Fouls

29012712108911111381010617129151411719221722212023212918H·SPAA·STRH·ELGA·DUMA·CLYH·EDIA·EASH·FORA·ANNA·SPA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DumbartonDumbarton

For 4.9 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

1603213106186263763104784541698913131112H·EASA·CLYH·STIA·STRH·FORH·ANNA·ELGH·STRH·SPAA·STI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.0

ðŸŸĻ Cards

50222123212112221314352122434H·EASA·CLYH·STIA·STRH·FORH·ANNA·ELGH·STRH·SPAA·STI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 8.2 · Total 18.4

⚠ïļ Fouls

270131410611111261291589575598927162218212314121417H·EASA·CLYH·STIA·STRH·FORH·ANNA·ELGH·STRH·SPAA·STI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

StirlingStirling

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.010.711.24.03.64.520.820.021.7
vs Stronger (20)10.810.610.94.43.55.320.319.421.2
vs Similar (25)11.211.211.23.83.54.221.420.921.9
vs Weaker (5)10.69.013.03.84.72.519.818.022.5
% over line62%69%54%54%46%62%38%27%50%
% under line38%31%46%46%54%38%62%73%50%
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DumbartonDumbarton

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.410.99.93.44.12.820.520.820.2
vs Stronger (34)10.310.410.23.64.42.921.021.120.9
vs Similar (16)10.612.09.23.13.52.619.420.218.6
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line51%56%46%44%60%28%41%48%33%
% under line49%44%54%56%40%72%59%52%67%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Stirling
11.0
Dumbarton
10.5
Stranraer
10.4
Elgin
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.7
Kelty Hearts
9.4
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.1
Forfar
8.9

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Edinburgh City
5.1
Elgin
4.3
Forfar
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.3
Clyde
4.3
Spartans
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dumbarton
3.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.1
Edinburgh City
23.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Annan Athletic
22.2
Stranraer
22.1
Clyde
22.0
Stirling
20.8
Spartans
20.5
Dumbarton
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
56.0%
Under 9.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
46.0%
Under 3.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
38.8%
Under 21.5
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸ”Ē 6. Odd / Even

ðŸĨ… 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 8. Handicap

ðŸ”Ĩ 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Stirling vs Dumbarton · H/A from STI
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26ADumbarton Vs STI2-1
28/02/26HSTI Vs Dumbarton1-1
27/12/25ADumbarton Vs STI1-2
04/10/25HSTI Vs Dumbarton2-2
18/04/23ADumbarton Vs STI0-0
25/03/23HSTI Vs Dumbarton2-2
08/10/22HSTI Vs Dumbarton6-0
30/07/22ADumbarton Vs STI2-0

StirlingStirling

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/26HSTI Vs Spartans2-2
25/04/26AStranraer Vs STI1-1
18/04/26HSTI Vs Elgin2-2
11/04/26ADumbarton Vs STI2-1
04/04/26AClyde Vs STI3-1
28/03/26HSTI Vs Edinburgh City1-0
21/03/26AEast Kilbride Vs STI3-2
14/03/26HSTI Vs Forfar0-3
07/03/26AAnnan Athletic Vs STI3-3
03/03/26ASpartans Vs STI2-0

DumbartonDumbarton

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/26AEdinburgh City Vs DUM5-0
25/04/26HDUM Vs East Kilbride0-1
18/04/26AClyde Vs DUM2-0
11/04/26HDUM Vs Stirling2-1
04/04/26AStranraer Vs DUM1-1
28/03/26HDUM Vs Forfar2-2
21/03/26HDUM Vs Annan Athletic2-1
14/03/26AElgin Vs DUM1-1
10/03/26HDUM Vs Stranraer2-0
07/03/26HDUM Vs Spartans3-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Stirling
Stirling
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDDD1.18
HomeDLWDD1.23
AwayDLLLD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%31%29%
AVG goals2.922.962.88
Over 1.5 %82%81%83%
Over 2.5 %58%62%54%
Over 3.5 %36%42%29%
Scored1.281.311.25
Conceded1.641.651.62
BTTS62%65%58%
Clean Sheet18%19%17%
Corners10.9610.7311.21
Cards4.043.624.50
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLL1.04
HomeWWDWL1.16
AwayDDDLL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%32%20%
AVG goals3.102.843.36
Over 1.5 %90%84%96%
Over 2.5 %64%72%56%
Over 3.5 %34%28%40%
Scored1.401.361.44
Conceded1.701.481.92
BTTS72%72%72%
Clean Sheet12%20%4%
Corners10.3910.889.88
Cards3.514.082.92

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ElginElgin37
67%
2.3
102+8
4.0
100%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.30.7
-
2ForfarForfar37
67%
2.3
51+4
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.3
-
3ClydeClyde36
67%
2.0
53+2
2.7
67%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.0
-
4SpartansSpartans34
33%
1.3
65+1
3.7
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.7
-
5Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City34
33%
1.3
57-2
4.0
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.3
-
6Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic33
33%
1.0
46-2
3.3
67%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.0
-
7StirlingStirling33
33%
1.0
46-2
3.3
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.0
-
8StranraerStranraer33
33%
1.0
24-2
2.0
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.3
-
9Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts33
33%
1.0
47-3
3.7
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.32.3
-
10DumbartonDumbarton33
33%
1.0
15-4
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.31.7
-
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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